Long battle ahead: 'Last man standing' Houthis have not been deterred by allies' fall - analysis

The Iranian-backed Houthis launched a missile attack targeting Tel Aviv in the early morning hours of Saturday. It came two days after another similar long-range missile attack had led to Israeli retaliation against the Houthis. There was also an attack on December 16 by the Houthis.

This group is now posing as the “last man standing” in Iran’s axis of “resistance” groups that have been attacking Israel. However, it does not appear to be deterred by Israeli attacks on various types of infrastructure.

It’s important to understand that Israel has carried out three rounds of retaliatory strikes on the Houthis, one in July, then in September and now in December. However, the group continues to attack.

Struggles Israel faces

 In fact, it is increasing its attacks, using long range missiles and drones. Yemen is more than 2,000 kilometers away from Israel, making retaliation difficult. Warplanes have to fly a long mission, with refuelers to accomplish the strikes on the enemy.

The Houthis know this. They also know that Hezbollah has been weakened, Hamas is weakened and that Iran has been pushed out of Syria by the fall of the Assad regime. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq appear to have also stepped back from attacks on Israel.

This leaves the Houthis as one of the main fronts Iran can use in attacks, which is why they are increasing the strikes. In the Thursday attack debris from a missile fell on a school, collapsing part of it. The attack took place early in the morning, so no one was harmed.

However the attack on Saturday morning did injure people. The IDF said that “overnight, a missile was fired from Yemen into central Israel, and a fallen projectile was identified in the Tel Aviv-Yafo area. IDF Home Front Command teams and additional rescue forces were dispatched to the scene and began searching the area along with additional security forces, local officials, and emergency services to investigate the scene of the fallen projectile.”

Several civilians were injured. The missile impacted a site near Jaffa. This is a dangerous escalation and shows that Israel cannot sit back and just let the Houthis attack, as has been the case for a year and two months. Israel has focused on other fronts.

It also shows that photos atop Mount Hermon with Israeli officials and top military brass seemingly declaring victory are not enough to stop the Houthis, or Hamas, which continues to hold 100 hostages.

Israel also faces challenges with Hezbollah. Many people have not returned to the border, because the two-month ceasefire could be fragile. This illustrates that a sense of victory that Israel has felt may be misplaced.

The enemy is still there in most cases. The Houthis are one example where precision strikes on infrastructure such as ports may not work to win the conflict.