Khamenei's empty promises: Iran's Syria ambitions stagger under domestic unrest, expert says

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly pledged to reclaim control in Syria, but issues such as internal fragility and a lack of options and resources cast doubt on his distant promises, Benny Sabati, a researcher with the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Maariv on Wednesday. 

"[Khamenei] simply thinks according to different time frames than we do," Sabati said. "In the long term, Iran hopes that Syria will return to into its hands."

What outsiders might dismiss as hollow rhetoric serves for Iranians as "a distant promise that will eventually come to fruition,” the researcher explained. “Though when [that promise may manifest] is hard to say."

In a Wednesday X/Twitter statement, Khamenei vowed that the "US and Zionist regime, who have invaded the land of the Syrian people, will one day be forced to retreat in the face of the power of the devout Syrian youth without a doubt. This will happen." 

"Today, the US is continuously building bases in Syria. These bases will undoubtedly be trampled under the feet of the Syrian youth." the Iranian supreme leader promised in another statement. In a third post, Khamenei swore that the "US and Zionist regime cannot stay in #Syria. Syria belongs to the Syrian people."

Domestic toll of Syria involvement

The domestic cost of Iran's involvement in Syria is sparking growing anger, Sabati said.

"There’s a lot of frustration over this issue," he said, referring to worsening tensions within the Islamic Republic. "No electricity, no water, severe air pollution, and no gas to heat homes." 

Sabati attributed this to systemic mismanagement as well as to Iran’s failure in Syria. 

"In every such case, tens of billions are invested, and then the money simply disappears. Iran’s biggest success is Hezbollah, however that is currenty largely incapacitated."

Iran’s extensive regional spending is further straining the regime, the INSS researcher added.

"On one hand, they must sustain terrorist organizations and sponsor states, but on the other, it’s becoming increasingly difficult," Sabati said. 

He also warned that additional investments in such projects "could spark public anger and trigger significant protests."

Khamenei's efforts to deflect criticism

To counter domestic dissent, Khamenei often emphasizes Iran's role in defending Iraq’s holy cities against ISIS. However, Sabati questioned the effectiveness of this strategy. 

"It’s as though he’s trying to rally Iranian public opinion to support more financial investments, but it’s doubtful this will succeed."

Sabati noted that public backlash has already impacted Iran’s military actions.

"They no longer dare to send forces," he observed. "Even when they did, the loss of soldiers provoked fierce criticism. That’s why they’ve resorted to deploying foreign mercenaries."

Strategic crisis in Syria

Iran's failure to maintain control in Syria has triggered a major strategic crisis, Sabati said.

"In the short term, they have no connection or foothold at all," he explained. "By relying exclusively on the Syrian route and neglecting alternatives, they’ve left themselves without options." 

This, he said, has led to a "domino effect of retreat among terrorist organizations across the region," including pro-Iranian Iraqi groups, which have pulled back out of fear of US strikes.

Despite Khamenei’s religious framing of Iran’s actions as protecting Islamic holy sites, Sabati sees this rhetoric as part of a longstanding narrative. 

"It’s always been their standard excuse—claiming to defend Islam’s sanctities, not regimes or states." Yet, Sabati concluded grimly, "What use is a holy city when there’s nothing to eat and not even air to breathe?"