Will Iranian-backed militias in Iraq disarm over fear of Trump? - analysis

A report from Reuters on April 7 indicates that the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could disarm due to their fear of the Trump administration. This is a significant development. However, it is crucial to examine this issue more closely to fully understand it.

The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are called the Hashd al-Shaabi or Popular Mobilization Forces. These consist of up to thirty different militias, many of them linked to Iran. Some of the militias have deep roots in Iraq and are very close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. For instance, the Badr Organization, which has a number of militias within the PMF, was once a proxy force of the Iranians back in the 1980s. Kataib Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy as well. These represent Iran’s attempt to replicate what it did with Hezbollah in Lebanon, except doing the same thing in Iraq.

In the 1980s, Iraq was run by the Saddam regime, so the groups that became militias lived in exile. Men like Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who came to lead Kataib Hezbollah, were known terrorists working for the Iranians in the 1980s. These were young Shi’ite men at the time, from Iraq, and they lived in exile in places like Iran, working to promote Tehran’s “revolution.” Some of them went to Lebanon and became close with Hezbollah.

When the Saddam regime fell in 2003, these nascent militia leaders returned to Iraq. Soon, they found themselves close to the center of power in Baghdad. Having come in from the cold, they could now lead the new Iraq. In the period of the US occupation, these militias often were involved in sectarian killing, such as kidnapping Sunni Arabs and murdering them.

In 2014, when ISIS invaded Iraq and took over Mosul and other cities, the militias were mobilized under the banner of the PMF. This was because Grant Ayatollah Sisitani, a key cleric in Iraq, put out a fatwa encouraging young men to go fight ISIS. The men joined the militias. 

Within months in 2014, the ranks of these militias, and newly formed militias, grew to tens of thousands. Soon, the PMF likely numbered 100,000. They helped defeat ISIS, but by 2017, they had less to do, and they began to harass civilian Iraqis.

Iraq also used them as a kind of Praetorian Guard to put down riots and enact policy. They attacked Kurds after the Kuristan referendum on independence in 2017. They worked with Iran. They began to threaten Israel and attack US forces. In response, the US killed Qasem Soleimani, a key IRGC leader, and also Abu Mahdi in a drone strike in January 2020.

By this time, the militias had become an official paramilitary force of Iraq. Integrated under the Interior ministry, they began to get state salaries. Their brigades were supposed to become normalized. However, many militias continued to operate outside state control. They carried out assassinations and murdered protesters. They went to Syria to help the Assad regime.

Beginning in 2021, they began drone attacks on Israel. After October 7, they carried out dozens of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. In January 2024, they killed they Americans in a drone attack in Jordan.

Pressure to disarm

The militias suffered a setback when the Assad regime fell in Syria. There is now pressure on them to disarm or become more regularized within the Iraqi state. The militias want money, and they want more power. They are unlikely to lay down their arms without a fight.

This is a state within a state of more than 100,000 men who are veterans of the war on ISIS. They have the equivalent of several divisions' worth of small arms and some artillery and improvised armored vehicles. The groups are close to the centers of power. History shows that such groups, whether it is the Janissaries of the Ottoman Empire or a Praetorian Guard, don’t give up power easily. They won’t go quietly into the night.