Iran built expectations about an attack on Israel. Now, its messaging is changing - analysis

Almost three weeks after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, the Iranian regime is trying to step down from its early claims it would carry out an attack on Israel in retaliation. The regime in Tehran has built up a lot of expectations regarding how it would attack Israel. Now it is trying to shift messaging.

The challenge for Iran in retaliation was trying to go beyond its April attack on Israel when it used more than 300 drones and missiles. However, Iran now wants to message about how it reserves the right to attack at some later date. 

This “time and place of our choosing” rhetoric is also common in Hezbollah talking points. Hezbollah has also said it would retaliate for the killing of a key commander in late July in Beirut. However, like Iran, it has toned down the rhetoric. What Hezbollah says now is that it has a right to respond and it is keeping the account open.

IRGC commander says Israel will be 'punished' in 'due time and place'

According to Iran’s state media IRNA “Deputy Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brig.-Gen. Ali Fadavi says his country will definitely punish the Israeli regime in due time and place for assassinating Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.” 

According to his statement, on August 19, which he made while traveling to Iran’s southwestern province of Khuzestan “the fake and child-killing Zionist regime continued its stupidity and martyred Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and we will give an appropriate response in due time and place,” Fadavi said.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Judiciary spokesman said Iran “is pursuing the Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran through international legal channels,” IRNA noted. 

Asghar Jahangir made this point on Tuesday. He said, “that the Judiciary immediately opened a case after Haniyeh was martyred in an Israeli strike in Tehran on July 31.” Iran now appears to want to use international attention in this regard. 

Iran calls the killing of Haniyeh, which it blames on Israel, as a “blatant example of state terrorism.” Iran is now mulling a “harsh response” but is also willing to use other levers. “Jahangir stressed that Iran’s military response does not negate the necessity of pursuing the matter through proper legal channels at the international level,” IRNA noted. He said “that relevant authorities, particularly in the Foreign Ministry and judiciary, are engaged in international efforts regarding the case. Those efforts, Jahangir said, led to an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council earlier this month. However, he added that Iran does not put much faith in the UNSC over this matter.”