Iranian official claims Tehran leading in missile capabilities - is it true? - analysis

Iran is one of the top six countries in the world in terms of surface-to-air missile capabilities, an Iranian commander claimed over the weekend. The comments were reported in Iranian state media and reflect one of the usual claims by Iran regarding its capabilities in missiles and other aerospace technology.

“A senior commander of the Iranian Army’s Air Defense Force has said that Iran is ranked among top six countries in terms of the range of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs),” the report at IRNA said.

The commander is Brigadier General Abbas Azimi, Commander of the Army Air Defense Force in northwest Iran. He made the claims on Saturday during a ceremony marking the anniversary of the establishment of the Army Air Defense Force as an independent Iranian unit.

“The commander did not specify the range of the Iranian surface-to-air missiles but emphasized that their range has put Iran among top six countries in the world,” the report said.

Iran's air defenses

Iran has been investing in air defenses in recent years. It has also tried to deploy some of them abroad. For instance in the spring of 2018, reports said Iran tried to move a third Khordad system to Syria.

Iranian air defense is based on increasing the capabilities of Soviet systems such as the Khordad systems and the Bavar 373. Iran’s expertise in air defenses is mostly rooted in its ability to reverse engineer existing systems or build on existing systems. For instance, the Iranian Sayyad surface-to-air missile is believed to be a version of a Chinese system.

The Sayyad 2 is supposed to be based on the American RIM-66 missile. Iran is willing to learn from other countries; they look to the US and Russian systems for inspiration.

Iran has also exported technology to other groups and countries, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Most Iranian proxies have limited air defenses, but they are increasingly capable. For instance, Hezbollah has downed several large Israeli drones over the last 10 months.

Iran is seeking to give its air defenses new radars and other capabilities. An air defense system is not just about the range of its missiles. It needs to be able to detect threats and then define them, and get the missile to strike the correct target.

In January 2020 Iranian air defense shot down a Ukraine Airlines commercial flight, killing 176 people. Iranian air defenses were on alert because Iran had attacked a US base in Iraq with ballistic missiles. The downing of the airliner shows the problems with focusing solely on killing power and range and not on the basics of air defense.

Syrian air defense, operating S-200 missiles, has suffered from the same problem. Syrian air defenders shot down a Russian military plane in 2018 and also fired a missile that went astray and hit Cyprus. Other errant missiles fired by Syrian air defended have flown over Jordan and flown into Israeli air space.

The Iranian commander said on Saturday that “the country’s air defense has made significant progress in terms of both the equipment it uses and the areas it covers for surveillance.” Azimi also said that Iran “used to import its air defense equipment before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But after the Revolution, Iran has managed to produce such equipment domestically and has developed them.”

Prior to 1979, Iran used US military systems because the Shah was a close ally of the US. Iran continues to operate old American planes, for instance. This has helped give Iran’s military access to Soviet and Western technology. In recent years Iran has succeeded with its missile and drone programs, as well as its satellite program, often achieving impressive results despite the relative poverty of Iran in general.