Between proxies and a new attack on Israel: Iran’s dilemma - analysis
Iran operates via proxies in several countries and territories, including Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gaza Strip.
Tehran’s response to the Israeli strikes on Iran on October 26 has been complex. It has sought to downplay the damage while also claiming it may respond at an “appropriate” time. Iran has also sought to rally international support for its position.
Tehran’s messaging has been mixed, claiming that it does not want war but is reserving the “right” to respond. Iran likes to be in this position where the ball is in its court regarding the regional battlefield. It is worth recalling that Iran did the same in April and also between July and October of 2024. Essentially, Iran has learned that keeping the region on edge is beneficial.As Tehran bides its time, the regime continues to empower its proxies in the region. Iranian state media brags about the successes of its proxies in attacks against Israel and the threats against the US. For instance, Iranian state media claimed that a US base at al-Tanf in Syria was targeted earlier this week. The implication was that Iranian-backed militias were behind the attack.Simultaneously, Iranian media has claimed that Hezbollah has carried out a wave of attacks throughout the week of October 27. Each day has seen Hezbollah rocket fire striking northern Israel. This has led to deaths and wounded in Majd el-Kurum, Tamra, and Tarshiha. On October 30, a long-range missile was also fired from Lebanon. In addition, several drone attacks were launched.
Iran's multiple fronts
Iran is also focused on the Gaza front. Iranian media said that numerous Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza. Iran wants to believe that Hamas is continuing to successfully attack the IDF in Gaza, even as Hamas suffered many setbacks.On the Yemen front, it appears the Houthis are also trying to increase attacks. Houthi spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Yahya Saree emphasized in a statement that in the framework of the 5th stage of the battle, a Yemeni drone unit, in a unique operation, “targeted the industrial zone of the Zionist enemy in Ashkelon in the south of the occupied territories,” Iran’s IRNA media reported this week.The group has used drones and other means in its attacks. “The Yemeni Armed Forces had conducted three operations against three ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb strait,” the report said. The ships that they targeted were the SC Montreal, the Maersk Kowloon, and the Motaro. Drones, a cruise missile, and ballistic missiles were used by the Houthis in these attacks.According to another report, Iraqi militants also carried out an attack targeting Israel using a drone. This illustrates that Iran has mobilized all its fronts against Israel in the wake of the October 26 airstrikes. As Iran weighs its direct response, it wants to keep up the pressure from Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Tehran openly brags about these attacks.
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