Defense officials fear Iran will act against Israel before Trump returns to White House

Concerns have been raised within Israel’s defense establishment that Iran might try to exploit the period before former US President Donald Trump’s return to office to act against Israel.

Intelligence services have begun intensifying intelligence sharing and situational assessments with the US military to prevent overlooking critical developments.

Officials emphasize that Israel’s political leadership must understand Trump’s proposed Iran policy to shape its own military and diplomatic strategy. Many within the defense community believe that the diplomatic efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions "have run their course."

Some defense officials recall Trump’s statement at a recent convention: “Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” though he added that, if elected, he would aim to end wars rather than start new ones. Questions remain regarding his intended methods.

In private discussions, sources said that Trump confided to associates that if he had a few more months in his first term, he would have imposed additional sanctions to destabilize Iran's economy. Now, the question for Israel is whether Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government will align with Trump on a new round of sanctions against Iran or press for a broader military initiative targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. To date, Trump has not provided a detailed policy on Iran’s nuclear program.

Senior IDF officials have emphasized the close coordination between Israel and top US government officials, including the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and British allies, in preparation for the recent Israel Air Force strike in Iran. According to senior IDF sources, this collaboration enhanced both the precision and effectiveness of the operation.

Leaving Iran exposed to future attacks

IDF data indicate that the strike successfully targeted key Iranian defensive and offensive sites. Among the targets were 14 radar systems connected to surface-to-air missile batteries designed to protect critical Iranian locations, four S-300 missile batteries, and facilities involved in the production of ballistic missile fuel.

Israeli assessments suggest the strike significantly weakened Iran’s production capabilities, leaving its strategic sites "more exposed than ever" to air attack.

Following the strike, Israeli sources anticipate that Iran may seek to offset the impact by strengthening its foothold in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. This reinforcement could include the transfer of advanced weaponry and efforts to establish what one defense official described as a “terror army.” Defense officials further noted that while Iran is unlikely to abandon plans for a ground raid, it may consider alternative routes through Syria or Jordan for the Radwan Force’s planned incursion from Lebanon.

Israeli intelligence assessments show that although Iran has enriched more uranium at the 60% level over the past year, it has not yet reached the 90% enrichment level required for a nuclear weapon. This development, however, has expanded Iran’s capacity to reach 90% enrichment quickly, effectively designating it as a nuclear threshold state.

Further assessments from Israeli defense officials indicate that, given Israel’s air force operations in Yemen and Iran and the structure of Iran's nuclear program, the Israeli Air Force would likely face challenges in achieving high levels of destruction without US support.