Iran wants to assert dominance over Lebanon amid talks on ceasefire deal

By saying it will accept any deal Lebanon signs with Israel, Iran has attempted to reflect its status as the “real power” in Lebanon, Iranian affairs expert Roi Kahanovich told Maariv in a recent interview. 

"This means, on the one hand, that the Iranians are the ones in control within Lebanon, and they are also looking out for their own interests," he explained.

Iran's interests in the agreement focus on two main aspects, Kahanovich explained. These aspects are "continuing to advance their nuclear program" and "beginning to rehabilitate Hezbollah," which he described as "Iran's most significant proxy on the border with Israel." 

According to Kahanovich, "At the moment, there is no official statement, but I believe that in the coming hours, as we approach the ceasefire or the signing of an agreement, we will see various tweets from regime officials themselves.”

Despite Iran’s involvement, Western powers, mainly the US and France, are leading the diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire.

“For France, it’s about their historical ties to Lebanon, while the Americans see themselves as a global power aiming to exert influence,” Kahanovich said. 

Iran shifts strategy amid threats against Israel

In the context of Iranian threats against Israel, Kohanovich commented on recent developments, saying, "Let’s not forget that Iran hasn’t stopped issuing threats of retaliation. Their so-called ‘righteous promise number three’ states that they will attack Israel." 

However, he assessed that Iran’s relatively restrained attacks and the potential reelection of Donald Trump are shaping its posture.

"It’s very possible that the prospect of Trump’s return is causing Iran to climb down from the high tree they’ve ascended."

On Iran’s role and influence on the situation in Gaza, Kohanovich painted a complex picture.

“There’s no doubt that Iran is a key player influencing groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and others,” he said.

Kohanovich estimated that “as much as Iran wants it, and if it really pushes for some kind of agreement, then it can happen,” but said, “Right now, Iran isn’t fully committed because they want to see which way the wind blows.”

Kohanovich explained that Iranian considerations are also influenced by the need to restore forces. 

“They’ve suffered significant losses in manpower, weaponry, and other resources,” he added, noting Iran is navigating between its regional ambitions and the shifting political landscape.