Could the unrest in Syria spillover into Iraq? Iran seems to think so - analysis

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani recently said that the escalating conflict in Syria has ties to the rest of the region and argued that it is connected to the war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Baghdad appeared concerned that the conflict could spill over to Iraq. It has reasons to believe this, because when ISIS was on the rise in Syria, it rapidly took over a swath of Iraq – leading to a genocide of the minority Yazidis.

In addition, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the Iraqi Al Sharqiya channel that the recent developments in Syria “will not be limited to this country,” saying that terrorism there also threatens the security of Iraq.

This is clear messaging from Baghdad regarding what is happening in Syria. Reports indicate that the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made moves to secure areas in Al-Bukamal on the border with Iraq, and in Deir Ezzor, a city on the Euphrates.

Iraq has deployed border forces to both Al-Qaim and the border area with Syria. The Iraq-Syria border is 600 km. long, and most of it consists of desert that is hard to secure and police. The main crossing for extremists who have flooded into Iraq in the past has been from the Euphrates River Valley.

Many of the tribes in that valley in Syria generally felt kinship with Iraq and have ties to tribes there.

Iraq worries about the future

The meetings in Iraq between Iranian and Iraqi officials clearly show how Baghdad is thinking about the future. Al-Sudani met with Araghchi on Friday.

“The events in Syria are inseparable from those witnessed in Gaza and Lebanon, which have threatened the security and stability of the region,” he said.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have involved themselves in the war against Israel and have launched drones at the Jewish state.

Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq also killed three Americans in Jordan in January. Thus, it is Iraq that has already involved itself in the war in Gaza.

Iraq is also a conduit for Iranian weapons smuggling to Syria and Lebanon. Kataib Hezbollah, for instance, has operated in Iraq and Syria in the past. It is linked to the Iranian IRGC and also Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Baghdad says it wants to see a unified, stable Syria. Today, the Syrian regime is embattled and losing ground to rebel groups. This has emboldened rebels in southern Syria, as well as the SDF in the eastern part of the country.

Iran believes that Iraq is in danger; this means Tehran is worried that militias it backs in Iraq could lose influence. Iran knows that populist leaders such as Muqtada al-Sadr have said Iraq should not be sending forces to Syria.

“After Gaza, they came to Lebanon and then to Syria, and in my opinion, this will not stop in Syria, and the whole region is facing threats,” the Iranian foreign minister added. He says the US is behind the attacks in Syria.

“Araghchi pointed out that before Syria, threats were limited to the Zionist regime, but now the threat of Takfiri terrorist groups has also increased, and it is noteworthy that these armed groups in Syria have been recognized and introduced as terrorist groups by the United Nations,” Iranian state media said. “Iran’s foreign minister added that now the countries that claim to fight terrorism are either silent or supporting the terrorists.”

Close attention needs to be paid to how this plays out, and Iraq is watching Syria closely.

If the Syrian regime loses more ground to rebel groups in the country, such as the SDF and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, other such groups may come to control the Iraq-Syria border.

There are US forces in Al-Tanf in Syria near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders, where there are small Syrian rebel groups, which could have an effect on the border area. There are also refugees in the Rukban camp in Syria near the border, and there is the Druze area in Suwayda, which affects this desert area near the Iraqi border.

This indicates that many processes are in play that could affect the 600 km. of the Iraqi border with Syria.

Iraq has a reason to look at developments in Syria as being linked to the rest of the region. The weakness of Hezbollah has weakened the Syrian regime.

Baghdad’s decision to involve itself in the war in Gaza, via its militias, shows how it is linked to the conflict. Furthermore, the US forces in Al-Tanf and eastern Syria play a key role in securing areas that are close to the Iraqi border. However, Iraq has wanted American forces to leave Iraq, which can lead to less stability.