Khamenei's gamble: The crumbling pillars of the Islamic Republic - interview

For over four and a half decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy has revolved around two central objectives: the elimination of Israel and opposition to the United States. These twin pillars have shaped its military doctrine and strategic maneuvers under the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Recent events have exposed the limitations of Tehran’s strategy, as key components of Iran’s military and political plans continue to falter week by week.

Khamenei’s military doctrine, rooted in these two objectives, is built on three primary strategies: nuclear deterrence, proxy warfare, and missile development.

Nuclear Deterrence

The pursuit of nuclear capabilities has been a cornerstone of Iran’s strategy since the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

“After the American invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq during George Bush’s time, when I was still in Iran, [the political elite] had the wrong assessment,” Iranian journalist, political dissident and founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Mohsen Sazegara told The Jerusalem Post. “They believed that now the US has come to the regions to the east and west of Iran, next is Iran. They have come here to attack Iran. So we believed that we have to, first of all, go for an atomic bomb to act as a deterrent.”

Fearing an impending attack, Khamenei’s regime adopted a "North Korean policy". This approach, aimed at deterring conventional military attacks, was based on a flawed assessment of US intentions and regional dynamics. While the development of nuclear capabilities provided a temporary sense of security, it also isolated Iran diplomatically and intensified global sanctions, stifling its economy.

Proxy Warfare

The second pillar of Iran’s military strategy is asymmetric warfare, carried out through a network of proxy groups across the Middle East and beyond. Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of the Quds Force, played a pivotal role in building this network. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and various militias in Iraq and Syria, these groups served as extensions of Iranian influence.

“Once Soleimani claimed that we control five Arab capital cities,” Sazegara remembered. “And the main force amongst them, the biggest one that they really relied on, was Hezbollah.”

In Syria, Iran’s significant investment—estimated at over $50 billion—has failed to secure long-term stability or strategic gains. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, once considered Iran’s most formidable proxy, has suffered devastating losses in its involvement in the recent conflict with Israel, including the assassination of long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah. According to Israeli reports, 80% of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and capabilities have been destroyed, leaving the group paralyzed. This has opened the door for more vocal opposition within Lebanon, as other political and religious groups look to take advantage of Hezbollah’s diminution.

“The IRGC were in Syria because they wanted to have the logistic line to Hezbollah and be near to Israel to keep that threat. These proxy groups of Iran are not only terrorist groups, but they are part of the smuggling of narcotics with a network from Kabul to Caracas.”

Missile Development

Missile power has been a hallmark of Iran’s military posturing. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has developed an extensive missile arsenal, which Khamenei has claimed could destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa within hours. Yet, recent missile exchanges with Israel have revealed the effectiveness of Israel’s multi-layered missile defense systems. During a high-stakes confrontation, Iran launched 181 ballistic missiles within minutes, but over 90% were intercepted, and the remainder caused minimal damage. This failure not only undermined Iran’s deterrence but also emboldened neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to challenge Tehran’s regional ambitions.

War with Israel

"I think that Khamenei's biggest mistake was igniting the Gaza war,” Sazegara stated. “The main objective of supporting that war was to stop the peace process in the Middle East, the Abraham Accords and especially Saudi Arabia - the most important Islamic country actually, was on the way to sign the Accords. So when the war started, it succeeded.”

The prevention of allowing normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia may be one of the few successes Iran and its proxies can take since October 7. Instead of weakening Israel, the conflict backfired spectacularly. Israel’s military operations dismantled Hamas’s tunnel networks and eliminated much of the leadership of both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. These groups, while continuing to operate as terrorist entities, no longer control territory in Gaza, marking a significant blow to Iran’s influence in the region.

The involvement of Hezbollah in the Gaza conflict further compounded Iran’s woes. Few expected Israel to deliver such a decisive blow to Hezbollah within a short timeframe. By paralyzing Hezbollah, Israel has effectively neutralized one of Iran’s most powerful proxies, undermining its so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

“Another major mistake of Khamenei’s was to bring the shadow war with Israel to the light,” Sazegara told the Post. “There were for several years  a shadow war with Israel, killings or assassinations, but when they attacked Israel directly, this gave the green light to Israel, firstly to attack directly to Iran, and secondly, because of this Iran is actually in a state of war with Israel.”

This shift allowed Israel to retaliate directly against Iranian assets, including missile facilities and proxy bases. It also provided the United States and its allies with justification to increase military support for Israel. The exposure of Iran’s vulnerabilities has emboldened Arab states, with Saudi Arabia warning Tehran against further missile attacks via its proxies.

The repercussions of these missteps are being felt within Iran. The $50 billion spent on Syria alone has drawn criticism from journalists, former parliament members, and ordinary citizens. The General Prosecutor’s recent decree criminalizing criticism of Iran’s involvement in Syria underscores the regime’s fear of public dissent. With an economy crippled by sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement, Iran’s costly foreign adventures are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

“Khamenei is actually the same as Bashar Assad - a brutal dictator who has war crimes on his hands,” Sazegara told the Post. “The [political] earthquake in Syria Khamenei has tried to cover up with conspiracy theories. He says that that was a conspiracy designed by US and Zionists.”

Khamenei’s gamble on an aggressive, ideologically driven foreign policy is unraveling. The failures of Iran’s military doctrine, combined with its economic struggles and growing domestic unrest, signal a turning point for the Islamic Republic. By prioritizing its revolutionary goals over pragmatic governance, the regime has not only jeopardized its regional ambitions but also its own survival. As Khamenei faces mounting challenges at home and abroad, the cracks in the foundations of his leadership are becoming impossible to ignore.