Iran sought to change the 'equation' of its confrontation with Israel - analysis

One of the outcomes of the Iranian attack on Israel with 350 drones and missiles is that it has now set a standard for retaliation, a new kind of equation in the tensions between Israel and Iran.

What this means is that Iran often calculates its moves in the region and also its responses to various incidents.In the past, Iran has been very calculating when it hijacked or attacked ships to escalate tensions or wring concessions with various Western powers. It has also operationalized proxy groups in the region to carry out attacks.

In Iraq it has used proxies to attack the Kurdistan Region and target US forces over the last five years. It has also directly attacked the region. It attacked Pakistan and Syria in January, claiming to target terrorists. Iran is therefore expanding its willingness to attack directly from Iran. This is a new era in terms of Iran’s openness to carry out these attacks and take credit for them.

It should be recalled that back in 2019 when Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility using drones and missiles, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen initially took responsibility. The Houthis were willing to take the blame so Iran could avoid retaliation by Riyadh. But it became clear Iran carried out the attack.

A new precedent set in the Middle East?

Today Iran has graduated from the Abqaiq attack, or the attack on US forces at Assad base in 2020, carried out in retaliation for the US killing of IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, and it is willing to launch hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel.

This sets a new bar and implies Iran may now carry out massive attacks in the future. It also means that if Iran attacks Israel with a few drones and missiles, this will be seen as a minor attack for which Iran will claim immunity. Iran has watched as some commentators called its April 13-14 attack “symbolic.” In reality, the attack was massive and unprecedented.

Israel faces choices on how to respond. It is important to see how Iran will encourage Hezbollah in Lebanon to redraw an equation with Israel as well.

Hezbollah has carried out 3,100 attacks on Israel and has even expanded those attacks in some cases, trying to set a new kind of doctrine in which it feels it can attack northern Israel with impunity. This is the new normal now in northern Israel, and Israel had to evacuate some 80,000 people from the region.

It is widely understood that Israel will have to extricate itself from this equation to restore deterrence. However, it is not just Israel’s understanding of this issue that matters. It is important to analyze how Iran views this new era. Iran has set a bar through its attacks. It will want to maintain that bar and also its militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen to continue attacks on Israel.

Iran believes it is in a new era not only after the April 13 attack but also since October 7. It believes Israel is weakened and is having difficulty responding to multi-front threats. Iran thinks it is playing the region like a conductor at a symphony, keying in its proxies the way one would bring in sections of an orchestra. Israel has to decide whether it wants to keep listening to the music or upend this drumbeat.