Raisi's forgotten trip to Islamabad, and the strategic implication for the US and Israel - opinion

Over the past few weeks, with our focus on the war in Gaza and northern Israel, Iran, located just a few thousand kilometers from Israel, has taken a significant step that raises concerns for the national security of both the United States and Israel. On April 22, Ebrahim Raisi, president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, landed in the Pakistani capital for a three-day visit, which included multiple high-level talks with Pakistani policymakers. The two parties discussed their economic, security, and political cooperation and agreed to strengthen their relations at the diplomatic and people-to-people levels.

Notably, it was the first official Iranian visit to Pakistan since the two Islamic powers exchanged threats and terrorist groups directed attacks on each other’s territory. Furthermore, it was Raisi’s first visit abroad since Israel and Iran exchanged attacks in the first three weeks of April. Considering the timing and the profile of this visit, it gives us essential insight into the dynamic changes in the extended Middle East in recent months, creating new challenges for Washington and Jerusalem.

On a strategic level, this visit makes a strong statement from Iran and Pakistan vis-à-vis American deterrence policy. About a month ago, the US threatened Pakistan, warning them not to activate the 1,800-km. Iran-Pakistan pipeline project. US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said, “We always advise everyone that doing business with Iran runs the risk of touching upon and coming into contact with our sanctions, and would advise everyone to consider that very carefully.”

This project, which was signed between the neighboring countries in 2010 in a 25-year deal and stopped in 2014 because of potential sanctions, attempted to ease the need for natural gas for Pakistan’s dying economy and help the sanctioned Iranian economy. In contrast to the warning from Washington, Islamabad ratified the project with Iran, along with other agreements, “to increase bilateral trade volume to 10 billion dollars over the next five years.” Pakistan’s ignorance of the American quest marked another failure of American deterrence since the start of April.

Previously, as America expected Tehran to attack Israel, US President Joe Biden put out a straightforward message to Iran, repeating “don’t” in a press conference on April 13. However, Iran did attack Israel on the same day with hundreds of suicide drones and ballistic missiles.

The fact that Washington did not manage to prevent the attack on its ally and did not respond with a painful blow to Iran signaled that American deterrence does not back up with actions but rather stays on the threatening level. Therefore, Pakistan’s decision to engage with Iran afterward, despite American intentions, indicates a slippery slope to the power of American deterrence and influence in the Middle East.

Iran's foreign policy and regional capabilities 

Moreover, this visit demonstrates Iran’s ability to control the region’s dynamics according to its will and excludes America’s role as a regional power. As mentioned, Iran launched a surprising missile attack in Pakistan territory on January 16 towards the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group without Pakistani permission. This attack caused a diplomatic and military escalation between Pakistan and Iran that ended after Pakistan launched its own attack on Iranian soil, targeting Baloch terrorists a few days later.

Since the Iranian attack came with no early notice or hostile background with Pakistan, it seems that its purpose was to signal to Tehran’s rivals that the Iranian regime would not hesitate to harm its enemies anywhere and anytime. However, after Raisi’s visit, which removed all question marks regarding any Islamabad-Tehran conflict, Iran showed it has the power to decide whether to attack or engage with major powers such as Pakistan.

On a systemic level, it seems that Pakistan has abandoned its trust in the American ability to pull it out of the mud. In recent years, Pakistan has faced the worst economic crisis since its emergence in 1947, followed by political and security instability. Dealing with debts to China and Saudi Arabia while relying on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout packages, Pakistan needed to make extraordinary moves to find its way out of the dire economic situation.

THE NEW government in Islamabad (elected in March), headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has already made some unusual decisions, such as seeking to resume trade with Pakistan’s historical rival, India. In addition, the decision to significantly advance economic ties with Iran shows that Pakistan understands it has more to gain from this move than it could lose from American sanctions or further assistance at the international level.

Furthermore, the Pakistan-Iran engagement increases China’s influence in the Middle East and South Asia against the backdrop of the US. The two parties are critical members of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and cooperation between them is beneficial for Beijing’s interests. As hinted in the joint statement during the visit, “As members of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), the two countries expressed firm resolve to enhancing cooperation in connectivity, infrastructure development, and energy sectors. The two countries also agreed to expand mutually beneficial and enduring linkages between the sister ports of Gwadar and Chahbahar.”

Finally, but considerably more importantly, Pakistan is a nuclear power, and, more specifically, the only Muslim state with nuclear capabilities. Iran, on the other hand, has tried to develop this capability for several decades, despite the reactions of the West and other states. Although it is absurd to think that Raisi’s visit dealt with its nuclear intention, it should indeed raise grave concerns about future cooperation in this arena between Iran and Pakistan.

The next move is hard to predict as the regional and international dynamics, combined with the Pakistani economic crisis, change dramatically. Washington should, therefore, take the possibility of Pakistani assistance to the Iranian nuclear program seriously.

To deal with this current situation, Washington should first accept the new equation in the Middle East and beyond. Its deterrence capability has been seriously damaged in recent years, notably since the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. Therefore, a new strategy should be employed. Changing the focus from deterrence by threatening sanctions on Iran to deterrence by punishment is essential.

In other words, instead of trying to prevent a specific attack on American bases or allies by threatening Iran or its allies of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ Washington should use hard power like strategic military operations to make sure the attack wouldn’t be beneficial for the actor.

In addition, the US should strengthen ties with Pakistan to reduce China’s significant influence under Sharif’s government and play a more central role in global security. After the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan became a strategic ground for the Global War on Terror. A new wave of Jihadi terrorism under the Taliban regime has led to terror attacks in South and Central Asia, as well as in Europe.

On the one hand, the Taliban harbors Al-Qaeda and the Tehrik-e Taliban (TTP), which conducts continuous attacks on Pakistan.

On the other hand, the Taliban fails to counter the growing global activity of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). A more advanced security cooperation between Washington and Pakistan, therefore, could counter the terror activities from neighboring Afghanistan. Moreover, a more dominant security involvement in Pakistan could balance China’s strategic influence in Pakistan and restore some American status in South Asia.

To conclude, Raisi’s visit to Pakistan is a turning point for the American MENA strategy. Pakistan’s decision to warm ties following the recent escalations in Israel, Gaza, and Iran points to the erosion of American influence in the region. Therefore, Washington should rethink its deterrence strategy and build more robust cooperation with Pakistan.

And Israel? Israel, as America’s closest ally, should closely monitor Iran’s external strategy and actively participate in America’s efforts to counter it. After all, in the international arena, even if your ally is the one to suffer damage, you may ultimately pay the price at the end of the day.

The writer is a fellow of the TELEM PhD program at the International Relations Department of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. He specializes in the security of the Af-Pak region.