Rafah and Riyadh: Defeating Hamas is essential for normalization - analysis

Israel faces several challenges almost seven months into the war in Gaza. Hamas is still not defeated, and international pressure on Israel is growing. A recent column at The New York Times suggested that “Israel has a choice to make: Rafah or Riyadh.” This is what columnist Thomas Friedman argues. “US officials tell me that if Israel does mount a major military operation in Rafah, over the administration’s objections, President Biden would consider restricting certain arms sales to Israel.”

The article also claims that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states could agree to an Arab peacekeeping force in Gaza. “Israel’s long-term interests are in Riyadh, not Rafah,” the article concludes.

Israel continues to fight Hamas almost seven months after one of the worst terror attacks in history which led to the largest mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust. However, the war in Gaza has not been fought with the urgency that one would expect a response to such mass murder would entail. Instead, Israel has approached the war against Hamas with slow, cautious operations of campaigns in Gaza, and the terrorist group continues to thrive in the Strip.

Now, most of the focus has moved to Rafah, the southern city in Gaza along the Egyptian border that is controlled by Hamas. It is believed Hamas has several “battalions” of fighters there and that it uses Rafah to control aid entering the embattled enclave and also uses it to smuggle weapons. Many Gazans who fled fighting in the north in October and November are now displaced in Rafah.

Any Israeli operation in Rafah is now under the international spotlight and Israel has been encouraged to refrain from an operation there or to at least help the civilians move out of the way.

 The assertion that Israel should end the war in Gaza, withdraw, and set its sights on normalization with Riyadh would appear to indicate that the Jewish state should basically give up on security for its citizens and its border in exchange for normalization with Saudi Arabia.

This is a strange theory. Most countries don’t sacrifice security for peace, and there is no evidence that giving up on security on the Gaza border will bring peace. If it was true that giving up on securing the Gaza border would bring peace, then how does one explain the lack of peace on October 6?

In October, Israel left the Gaza border relatively undefended and trusted that Hamas was deterred, a message conveyed to Israel repeatedly in recent years. Hamas is hosted by America’s major non-NATO ally Qatar and apparently Washington, Doha and others thought Hamas was not going to do anything against Israel.

 This raises a key problem with the “Rafah or Riyadh” argument. On October 6 Hamas controlled all of Gaza, and Israel wasn’t contemplating any ground operation in Rafah, and yet there was no normalization with Riyadh. In fact, Hamas sought to sabotage any peace deal by launching its massive war. Now Israel is being told to leave Gaza and basically greet October 7 with a shrug to get normalization with Riyadh.

The fact is that if Israel sacrifices its security on the border for normalization deals, it will get more massacres and war, and the deals will be in jeopardy. This is because Hamas, backed by Iran, Russia, Turkey and other countries, are all seeking to sabotage the normalization agreements and Abraham Accords. It should be recalled that before the UAE agreed to the accords, Turkey threatened to break relations with Abu Dhabi if it proceeded.

In short, the pro-Iran axis in the region has systematically sought to prevent normalization between Israel and other states. October 7 was one of those attempts.

Saudi Arabia watching Israel-Hamas war closely 

Saudi Arabia may not publicly want Israel in Rafah, but Riyadh has been watching the war closely since October 7. It has likely wondered why it took Israel seven months to defeat Hamas and why the genocidal terrorist group has apparently returned to most of Gaza. 

The Saudis likely preferred Hamas to be defeated faster. It can’t understand why Israel is waging the war the way it is, letting Hamas move from place to place and survive. The potential operation in Rafah is only controversial now because it has taken six months. If Israel had moved into Rafah in October, right after October 7, there would have been no controversy.

The reality is that for Israel and Saudi Arabia to have ties that work in the long run, Hamas must be defeated, and Rafah must be taken to eradicate the Hamas tunnels there. In short, the only way to get to Riyadh for a peace deal is through Rafah, not without Rafah. This is because normalization is paved through stability in the region.

Hamas is a destabilizing force backed by Iran and other countries that want to sow chaos, war, and extremism. So long as Hamas is left in control of Gaza, there will be endless wars, and it will be used by Iran and others every time they want to harm normalization.

Countries can’t sacrifice their citizens and abandon security just for peace deals. No other country would see that as a logical trade-off. For instance, the US would not accept a situation where narco-terrorist cartels, such as strengthened versions of the Zetas or Sinaloa cartels, control the border with Mexico. In exchange, the US has to let them massacre its citizens in order to have better ties with Brazil. 

No one would propose such a nonsensical logic of allowing terror groups to control the border in exchange for better ties with regional powers. The same goes for Russia and Europe. European countries learned they couldn’t appease Russia in order to get better ties and meanwhile abandon Ukraine and let Moscow destabilize the border between Europe and Russia.

Israel’s leaders historically learned never to sacrifice the security of the people of Israel in order to get deals. Every time they did make this mistake, it had disastrous consequences. Today, Jerusalem is being lured into accepting Hamas returning to Gaza and allowing Hezbollah, Iran, and others to attack Israel with impunity. 

The region is watching, and the region thinks Israel may not be up to the task of defeating terrorism and that it is weaker than it appeared. This is a dangerous time for Israel. If Israel caves and lets terrorists run Gaza again, it is only a matter of time before more massacres.

On the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom Hashoah), it is worth remembering the mission of the state. We are here to protect people, not allow more massacres like October 7, more massacres like in the Shoah. Countries in the region respect strength, and they want to see Israel emerge stronger after this war, not accept defeat at the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah. 

The road to Riyadh is through Rafah, not in spite of it. To bring peace to the region and end Iran’s destabilizing behavior, Hamas must be destroyed, not coddled.