The Middle East is at a crossroads in potential Iran-Israel conflict - analysis

Across the Middle East, countries and groups are watching a potential Israel-Iran conflict unfold. All those with stakes in this conflict have been watching it manifest for decades.

Iran’s regime has vowed to destroy Israel over the years, and it has empowered groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis in Yemen, who all want to dismantle Israel. For instance, the Houthis’ official slogans include the phrases “curse the Jews” and “death to Israel.”

THE MIDDLE EAST is now approaching a new crossroads in history. Iran launched a regional war on Israel in the wake of the October 7 attack by Hamas. Tehran prodded Hezbollah to begin attacks on October 8 and then encouraged the Houthis to target Eilat and Israeli-associated shipping.

This is a multi-front war; Iran has been systematically knitting together its proxy groups in the region for what it claims is a war across different “arenas” against Israel. Iran and its proxies are open about this. They want to “ring” Israel with fire. Indeed, according to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Israel is weak like a “spider web.”

Iran’s use of proxies has emboldened Tehran. In the past, Iran merely boasted that it would destroy Israel, but when asked when this would happen, it would point to some imaginary later date. Now Iran has moved its pawns and pieces across the Middle East, taking over parts of Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen using various terrorist groups. Iran has also increasingly sought to exert influence in the West Bank while also supporting Hamas. Iran is seeking to destabilize Jordan as well.

Iran moves its pawns in the Middle East

This is where the new regional crossroads becomes clear. For in the last decades, the Middle East has changed.

IN THE PERIOD of the 1960s-1980s, the region was the realm of the Cold War and superpower confrontations. Back then, a brutal war between Iran and Iraq was raging.

In 1990, the Soviet Union collapsed, and Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. This set in motion the Gulf War and the rise of the US as a global hegemon. In the 1990s, the region was in transition as extremist groups such as al-Qaeda grew more prominent.

They set the world aflame, and by the 2000s, the region was the center of the US-led Global War on Terror. That in turn led to a transition whereby states in the region became more fragile. The Egyptian government fell during the Arab Spring. Syria, Libya, and Yemen descended into civil war, and ISIS took over a swath of Syria and Iraq. This led to the weakening of the Arab states and to increased power to periphery states such as Turkey and Iran.

In some ways, the rise of Iran and Turkey as more powerful than the Arab states fits the historic pattern of Persia and Ottoman Turkey dominating the region.

However, this redux of the 19th-century political power dynamics in the region is not so simple. The Arab states have returned from the chaos of 1990-2020, and they have set about rebuilding the Arab League and forming new connections. For instance, China brokered Saudi-Iran normalization; Syria returned to the Arab League; and the Abraham Accords were signed. This appeared to show that diplomacy would be the way forward in the region.But Iran sought to overturn the applecart of diplomacy and return the region to war on October 7. This was part of a wider Iranian goal to create a new world order in which Tehran works with Russia and China, and together, all three collaborate with Turkey and Qatar.

All these countries either back or host Hamas. Hamas is their tool not only against Israel but also against the West. Russia, for example, has grown closer to Iran. Significantly, the former is fighting a war in Ukraine using Iranian drones. As for Iran, it has joined the BRICS and the SCO, two economic groups that include China.

Tensions go beyond proxy groups

NOW THE REGION is at a crossroads because Iran-Israel tensions are actually out in the open, extending beyond proxy groups. Proxies are the cutouts Iran usually uses to have plausible deniability for its attacks. Iran has used them to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria, aided by Iranian-backed militias in both those countries.Case in point, Iran used Kataib Hezbollah to attack US forces and US partners in the Kurdistan region. The militant group even flew drones into Jordan to kill three American service members on January 27.

Iran’s use of proxies allowed it to pretend it was not escalating its aggression. Hezbollah has launched 3,200 attacks on Israel since October 8, caused 80,000 Israelis to be evacuated, and damaged up to 1,000 homes and places in northern Israel.

Regardless, these unprecedented attacks are not intrinsically regarded as a war. The Houthis attacked ships in another unprecedented wave of offensives. But the Houthis are not being deterred by a real war. Also, Iraqi militias have even targeted Eilat with drones, yet these actions are still not deemed a war.

NOW THE REGION is watching what comes next. Some of the Arab states that also have peace with Israel do not want regional escalation. But they also don’t want Iran to ring them with proxies either. The Gulf states don’t want the Houthis to decide their future. But the Gulf states don’t want war. Egypt and Jordan don’t want escalation either.

These countries have a lot to lose, and they prefer peace. But they also understand that Iran and others are using Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to spread chaos. They would like to see an Israeli victory, but not at the cost of the regional stability they prefer. They also don’t want to be used or roped into a war with Iran.

They want a high return on investment for the Abraham Accords without getting involved in the current crisis. Therefore, the region is watching.

In addition, countries like Russia are content to back Iran and Hamas these days, and this puts Israel at the forefront of a number of nefarious agendas that are currently converging.

For one, the perception that the US would like to leave the region has emboldened Iran. Israel has now become a victim of this emboldened Tehran via its proxies, such as Hamas. If Israel cannot deter Iran and end these conflicts, then Iran will exploit this endless war to try to weaken Israel in the long run and try to distance Israel from peace partners in the region.