Iran is a real threat - opinion

If Iran has been at the forefront of your thoughts and fears about the future of the Western world, and your thoughts about yours and your children’s future – you are right on target.

If Iran has not occupied your thoughts and does not inspire fear – think again. Iran is dangerous.

In Israel, the current government and past governments have taken the Iranian threat seriously. Israel understands Iran. And while Jerusalem has not shared details of its plans, the best minds in Israel’s military, intel and diplomatic arenas are most certainly preparing – or have already prepared – a plan for preemptive, coordinated, simultaneous strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It would be foolish not to, and they are not fools.

Sometimes, a surgical military strike is essential. We can presume, however, that strategically, Israel will put off striking Iran for as long as possible in the hope that a diplomatic solution will be found. And the fact that Israel is not trigger-happy fits well into Iran’s strategy.

And when it comes to strategy, as good as Israel is, Iran is masterful.

Over the past several weeks, the rhetoric from Israel about Iran’s nuclear capabilities has been ratcheted up. It is getting serious and intense. The pitch is high. However, at the same time, the international rumor-mill has been hinting at a series of important and positive steps about nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.

The objective is to steer Iran away from the nuclear brink, thereby lowering tensions and sidelining the inevitability of an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The catch is that, while it sounds laughable to even point this out, Iran cannot be trusted.

Negotiations with Iran are pointless 

Iranian leadership has proven, time and time again, that negotiations and agreements are simply a cover for their master plan. Time and time again the West has played into their hands.

And time and time again we have learned that Iran’s objective is not the items on the table for negotiation, but something else: Like avoiding a direct attack. Like distracting the West from realizing the true nature of their illegal and nefarious activities.

If it wasn’t clear until now, it should be perfectly clear by now that negotiations are just a small part of a major set of interlocking strategies that Iran has embarked upon. For Iran, secret negotiations are a very important buffer. Iran is betting that, as long as they are talking with the United States about their nuclear power, Israel with restrain itself in the hope of attaining a peaceful resolution. They have used this ploy before.

From the information that we glean from the unofficial rumors of secret talks, the US is perfectly okay with Iran keeping any and all the fissile material they have already enriched. They just want to stop Iran from enriching more material. And while this sounds simple and straightforward and seems like a great deal for Iran, it is exactly what Iran does not want.

Iran wants more. And more. And more.

They negotiate with the US and simultaneously strengthen their network of countries against the US and the West. Iranian leadership is cementing strong relationships with Russia, China and, most recently with Saudi Arabia where they have just opened embassies.

But that’s not enough for Iran. They are also courting Latin America. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has embarked on visits to Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. The visits are anything but secret. Iran’s official state news agency, IRNA, is reporting that they will be expanding bilateral cooperation. Iran and these three countries will together focus on economic, political and scientific expansion.

Needless to say, these countries are not friends of the US or the West. All three are run by leftist regimes with horrific human rights records.

Iran is insulating itself against potential sanctions imposed by the US and Western countries. Iran is giving a voice to countries that resent US influence and world hegemony. And Iran will cultivate more and more allies who are sympathetic to their cause, countries that will bolster and support Iran not just economically but in the world media and in international forums like the United Nations.

Countries that will join in condemnation of Israel should Israel strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

And in another move destined to weaken the US, Iran has been seizing oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz.

Fifteen tankers in the last two years have been seized by Iran. Other tankers have been subject to Iranian strikes. The US 5th Fleet is responsible for securing the straits. The catch is that if the US steps up its naval presence in that very, very narrow waterway, or even just outside the straits, US ships become a very slow-moving, very big target for Iranian attack. And Iran is waiting for the perfect time to attack – not surgical attacks, but annoying attacks. Enough to irritate the United States without causing an international incident.

All the while Iran is also building their nuclear capabilities. That is Iran’s modus vivendi.

That is why we are right to be fearful and why Israel is right to be fearful – and why Israel is right to be prepared.

The writer is a social and political commentator. Watch his TV show Thinking Out Loud on JBS.