Advancing Israel-Saudi normalization hinges on defeating Hamas - opinion

Until the barbaric massacre committed by Hamas on October 7, it was clear to everyone that the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia was imminent. Similar to Saudi Arabia’s neighbors in the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, who chose the path of normalization with the Jewish state because of its political and military strength as a counterweight to Iranian expansion in the Middle East, it was clear that Riyadh was also following the same track.

The Israeli-Saudi normalization not only symbolizes the last nail in the coffin of the Palestinian veto. Rather, it mainly constitutes the final chord of the Israeli-Arab conflict, when the Sunni Arab world under the leadership of Egypt and Saudi Arabia has actually reconciled with the existence of Israel and sees it as a true partner against the security challenges posed by Iran and its affiliates in the region. 

However, the Palestinians, who felt isolated due to the upcoming Israeli-Saudi normalization, chose to launch a violent campaign in order, among other things, to thwart peace in the Middle East.

In fact, this is how the pattern of action of the Palestinian leadership repeats itself, which in a historical perspective has persisted in refusing to reach a historical compromise with Israel. Thus, from a historical point of view, Hamas’ declaration of war on Israel, which resulted in the murder of 1,400 Israelis on October 7, 2023, is reminiscent of what happened in 1948, when the Palestinian leadership, along with Arab countries, refused to accept the UN’s partition plan and started a war; and the outbreak of the Second Intifada in September 2000, which aimed to end the international isolation of the Palestinians after their leadership refused the Israeli peace proposal at the Camp David conference.

Israel-Hamas war in the context of Saudi normalization

These days, when Israel continues to blow up Hamas and collapse its rule in the Gaza Strip, all the countries of the Arab world, and especially Saudi Arabia, are watching carefully. 

WHILE, TRADITIONALLY, the Arab street in the Middle East supports its Palestinian brothers, many leaders of Arab countries aspire to see Israel overwhelm the Iranian proxy organization and remove it from the Gaza Strip.

For them, the Hamas attack originates from Iran’s initiative to prevent damage to their interests in the region, which could have emanated from the future normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the economic trends that the latter would apply. Although they cannot say so publicly for fear of criticism from the local street, those rulers believe that if the war were to end without the destruction of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, it would be a great defeat for Israel and the free world.

Furthermore, they believe that it would be a great victory for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are perceived as the greatest threat of those countries that are interested in peace with the Jewish state. 

Those rulers who chose the path of normalization with not for the “desired peace” with it but because of its strength against the Shiite threat to them led by the Ayatollah regime in Tehran, believe that the defeat of Hamas is a necessary condition for the stability and security of the entire region.

In light of the fact that the security issue is at the top of Riyadh’s agenda and when in the Middle East peace agreements are only made with the strongest, Israel must demonstrate its strength until a clear victory over Hamas, which would undoubtedly illustrate that the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood has been clearly defeated. Without a clear triumph on Hamas, Israel would be portrayed as a weak entity, something that may take normalization off the agenda of the Saudis, for whom Israeli strength is a basic condition for peace with the Jewish state.

In conclusion, the defeat of Hamas and its expulsion from the Gaza Strip is not only for the purpose of ensuring that a murderous pro-Iranian terrorist organization would not be established on Israel’s southern border, as it has been for the past three decades since the beginning of the Oslo process. The victory over Hamas and its defeat is mainly necessary for the circle of Abraham agreements to expand to include Saudi Arabia and other countries, which view Israel as the strongest country in the region and the only one capable of deterring Iran. 

This time, defeating the enemy is not only for security but mainly for peace and the future of the entire Middle East.

The writer is a research fellow at the University of South Wales, UK, and a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), Israel.  His recent book is Israel: National Security and Securitization (Springer, 2023).