Are young US voters Israel's next security challenge? - comment

Are young American voters Israel’s next existential security challenge?

Israel and America have a long-standing and robust security alliance. Still, the trajectory of the US-Israel relationship remains uncertain, as the next generation of leaders appears to be distancing from the Jewish state.

Numerous polls conducted both before and particularly after the onset of the Israel-Hamas war indicate diminishing generational support and sympathy for Israel – a trend seen by some as a threat to the foundational security of the country.

A survey released this week by The New York Times and Siena College showed that younger Americans were much more critical than their older counterparts of Israel’s actions and the administration’s handling of the conflict in Gaza. These findings have the potential not only to impact US President Joe Biden’s ability to secure a second term in 2024 but also to be a warning sign that the enduring relationship between Israel and its most significant military, diplomatic, and financial ally is at risk.

What do younger Americans think about Israel?

For some younger Americans, this shift may stem from heightened awareness of the challenges faced by Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. However, for others, their opposition to Israel could run deeper and be rooted in far-left, perceived anti-colonial, and antisemitic narratives being celebrated in some liberal elite American communities. In some cases, these young people are calling for the dismantling of the State of Israel.

Looking at The New York Times/Siena College poll, nearly three-quarters of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 said they disapprove of the way Biden is handling the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Within this demographic, nearly half of the voters (46%) express greater sympathy toward the Palestinians, in contrast to a mere 27% who align themselves with Israel. A notable 28% harbor doubts about Israel’s genuine commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Additionally, close to 50% believe that Israel is deliberately causing harm to Palestinians, and approximately 75% contend that Israel is not exerting sufficient effort to prevent civilian casualties.

A separate poll in the first month of the war yielded similar results. According to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted between October 21 and 24, some 28% of respondents aged 18 to 29 sympathize with the Palestinians, versus 20% with the Israelis. That is in comparison to 65% of people over the age of 65 who sympathize with Israelis, versus 6% with the Palestinians.

This week, a Harris Insights and Analytics and Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) poll of 2,000 registered American voters revealed that the majority of young Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 believe that Israel is committing genocide, and that more than half (51%) think that the long-term answer for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is for “Israel to be ended and given to Hamas and the Palestinians.”

Strikingly, that same poll found that two-thirds of young Americans believe that Jews as a class are “oppressors” and should be treated as such.

Even before the war, anti-Israel sentiment was rising at unprecedented rates. A 2022 Pew survey found that 41% of those aged 18 to 29 had a favorable view of Israel, compared to 69% of those aged 65 or older.

A separate poll the same year showed that 61% of those aged 18 to 29 held a positive view of the Palestinian people, compared to 56% who were favorable toward the Israeli people.

In March 2023, Gallup reported a notable shift in Democratic sentiments toward the country, with a preference for the Palestinians over the Israelis at 49% versus 38%. This trend revealed a distinct generational divide. While baby boomers (born 1946-1964) and Generation X (born 1965-1979) exhibited a net positive sympathy level of +46% and +32% for Israel, respectively, there was a considerable decline among millennials (born 1980-2000), where the net sympathy for Israel versus Palestinians plummeted to -2%.

These generational differences influence views about public policy, too. In a recent poll, Quinnipiac University found that 29% of young Americans favored sending more military aid to Israel and 65% opposed it, compared to 69% of older Americans who wanted to send more aid.

The data is not just numbers but could translate to a future where American voters and leaders are not supportive of Israel and make policy decisions that could put its security and sovereignty at existential risk.

Already, as the American presidential election rapidly approaches, the Biden administration is starting to yield to these voters’ views. For example, the administration seems to be retracting its unequivocal support for Israel to all-out attack of Hamas in Gaza. It has started calling for a winding down of the war. Moreover, there is a renewed and heightened emphasis on allowing humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, which we know is being hijacked by Hamas, and finger-wagging at Israel for “indiscriminate bombing” of civilians, despite the fact that Hamas is using its people as human shields.

The New York Times/Siena College poll warned Biden that his voters may decide to look elsewhere or not vote at all if he continues to be unabashedly pro-Israel.

As the younger generation becomes increasingly drawn to the rhetoric of human rights and intersectionality, primarily influenced by social media, where sound-bite narratives and dramatic videos often prioritize passion over historical context, there is a discernible trend of distancing from Israel. For many of these young individuals, Israel symbolizes the epitome of Western colonial imperial governments that have historically oppressed the rights of minority groups.

As the writers of the New York Times article on the poll explained, for many younger Americans, the Israel-Hamas war is their first encounter with a conflict that has endured for over 75 years. As such, the forthcoming months could significantly influence their future perceptions of and relationship with Israel.

From Biden’s trip to Israel at the start of the Israel-Hamas war to the daily vigorous defense by top American officials and spokespeople to congressional support, the United States, in a bi-partisan manner, has thrown its diplomatic backing behind Israel.

Many politicians, including Biden, have taken electoral risks to do so while simultaneously issuing sharp statements against the antisemitism laced into many of the anti-Israel protests. It’s a stance that has neutralized the impact of what has been an angry minority up until now.

But if the polls are accurate and the beliefs of the younger generation do not change, then the US-Israeli alliance, often thought to be rock solid, may be more of a sandbar in an ocean, washed away by the growing tide of anti-Israel outrage that will be reflected in the politicians they place in Congress and the White House.

The writer is deputy CEO – strategy and innovation for The Jerusalem Post and a senior correspondent. She also co-hosts the Inside Israeli Innovation podcast.