Iran is waging a shadow war to reshape the Middle East - opinion

The recent escalation by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, a direct consequence of Iran’s machinations, starkly exemplifies Tehran’s longstanding ambition for regional supremacy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This latest act of aggression is a critical piece in Iran’s complex geopolitical puzzle, a strategy deeply entrenched in religious supremacism, ethnocentrism, and a relentless drive to redraw the Islamic civilization map in its own image.

Iran’s formation of the so-called “Axis of Evil” is not just an alliance but a systematic campaign to absorb Arab capitals into its ideological orbit. By exploiting existing socio-political and sectarian divisions, Iran has managed to pit Arab states against one another – and against the Israeli-Western bloc– thus hindering their path to independent progression and unity. Tehran’s actions, therefore, need to be viewed through the lens of a hegemonic power play, where the end goal is to establish Iranian supremacy within the Islamic world and to counter Western influence.

The Houthis’ targeting of strategic waterways, following Israel’s military response to Hamas’s horrific attacks, is a calculated move within this grand strategy. It serves to reignite Arab-Israeli tensions at a time when normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared within reach, a development that would threaten Iran’s aspirations as a regional superpower.

In essence, Iran’s strategy involves trading “Arab blood” for its strategic gains. By instigating and fueling regional conflicts, Tehran not only asserts its dominance but also ensures the Arab world remains embroiled in internal strife and reactionary politics. This calculated orchestration of chaos and division is central to Iran’s vision of a region under its sway, a vision that continues to disrupt the Middle East’s stability and prospects for peace.

Iran's role in the Palestinian issue is calculated and strategic

IRAN’S ROLE in the Palestinian issue transcends mere expressions of support, unfolding as a calculated strategy to position itself as a bulwark against perceived Western and Israeli hegemony. This strategic posturing is not just about lending a helping hand; it’s a critical part of Tehran’s larger quest for influence and control in the Arab world.

Ayatollah Khomeini, the architect of the Islamic Republic of Iran, once famously declared, “We will support and assist any nation or any group anywhere who opposes and fights the Zionist regime.” This statement is emblematic of Iran’s commitment to opposing Israel, a stance that transcends geopolitical disputes and ventures into the realm of ideological conviction.

Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s current Supreme Leader, reinforces this viewpoint, asserting that “The issue of Palestine is not a geopolitical one. It is a matter of belief, a matter of faith.” Such pronouncements underscore Iran’s framing of the Palestinian issue as not just a political commitment but a moral and religious imperative.

However, a deeper analysis suggests a more complex, perhaps more insidious, motive behind these proclamations. Iran’s vocal support for groups like Hamas appears less about championing Palestinian independence and more a strategic move to bolster its own revolutionary ideology. This approach serves a dual purpose: it camouflages a deep-seated animosity toward Arab nations under the guise of solidarity, and it entangles Iran in perpetual conflict with powerful adversaries, furthering its agenda under the cover of defending the oppressed.

This strategy effectively keeps the region embroiled in endless strife, allowing Tehran to exploit narratives of victimhood while simultaneously extending its influence. In essence, Iran’s engagement in the Palestinian cause is less about liberation and more about leveraging the conflict to assert its dominance in the Middle East.

Iran’s role in this enduring conflict reveals a pattern of manipulating regional tensions to serve its broader geopolitical and ideological goals, often at the expense of peace and stability in the region. As the Middle East grapples with these complexities, understanding Iran’s true motives remains crucial for any meaningful progress towards resolution and peace.

Iran's sponsored militias are integral cogs in its geopolitical machine

IRAN’S STRATEGIC use of proxy militias across the Middle East is a stark reflection of its broader ambitions to reshape regional dynamics. Far from being mere allies, groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria are integral cogs in Tehran’s well-oiled geopolitical machine. These proxies are frequently propelled into conflicts disproportionate to their size and capability, serving Iran’s expansive agenda often at the grave expense of their own nations’ stability.

A prime example of this is the Houthi rebels’ recent audacious posturing against the United States, the world’s foremost military power. This stance, though seemingly brazen and uncalculated, is a calculated move orchestrated by Iran. It exposes Yemen to a conflict with a superpower, a battle it is ill-equipped to win. However, Tehran’s strategy here transcends the military sphere; it is a play aimed at two broader objectives.

Firstly, by thrusting the Houthis into an asymmetric confrontation with the United States, Iran fuels the narrative of an aggressive Western campaign against the Muslim world. This portrayal serves to galvanize the wider Islamic community, casting Tehran in the role of its defender. Secondly, this move forces other Arab nations into a precarious position: either align with Iran’s Shia Crescent, thus endorsing Tehran’s vision, or seemingly oppose Arab interests by siding with Western powers.

This nuanced strategy underscores Iran’s intent to sow discord across the Middle East. By creating and exploiting fissures between Arab states and the West, and even within the Arab world itself, it advances its own influence and interests. This approach, while strategically beneficial to Tehran, has had dire consequences for regional stability, particularly in countries like Yemen, where ordinary citizens bear the brunt of conflicts engineered far beyond their control.

Iran wants to fragment the Arab world

IRAN’S EXPLOITATION of Shia-Sunni sectarian divides has been a deliberate strategy to fragment the Arab world. It is high time Arab capitals come to grip with the manipulations they have fallen prey to, selling their futures to agendas that seek their destruction even if draped in talks of glory and liberation.

Tehran’s tactics have exacerbated regional tensions, fostering a perpetual cycle of violence and retribution. The mullahs’ narrative of a Shia struggle against Sunni dominance is a strategic ploy to weaken Arab unity to better consolidate its influence to the tune of bloodshed, famine, and obscurantism.

Iran’s strategic maneuvers in the Middle East, particularly targeting traditional Arab powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, reveal a cunning approach to regional dominance. By destabilizing key areas within these nations’ spheres of influence, Tehran not only weakens them but also makes them more susceptible to its influence. 

This strategy is particularly evident in Iran’s targeting of vital waterways such as the Red Sea and potentially the Strait of Hormuz, which significantly impact Egypt and Saudi Arabia’s economic interests, arguably more than they advance the Palestinian cause.

Political analysts like F. Gregory Gause III have shed light on how Iran’s interventions are recalibrating regional power dynamics. By creating strategic vulnerabilities, Iran aims to exploit these for its gain. The targeting of crucial maritime routes is a case in point. Such actions disrupt the flow of commerce and energy, which are lifelines for Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue and Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. This not only harms these nations economically but also diminishes their geopolitical standing, playing directly into Iran’s hands.

In this context, the Islamic Republic’s actions are not just about asserting its presence in the region but are carefully calculated to undermine the stability and economic prosperity of key Arab states. This approach underscores Iran’s broader ambition to reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape in its favor, leveraging regional conflicts and strategic points of disruption to advance its agenda.

Moreover, Iran has adeptly framed its activities as part of a broader struggle against Western imperialism. This narrative, which resonates with those wary of Western intervention, effectively masks Iran’s own expansionist aims. As Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution points out, Iran’s anti-Western rhetoric serves dual purposes: it consolidates internal support while justifying its aggressive policies abroad.

International community must recognize, address Iran's actions

CONFRONTING THE Islamic Republic of Iran’s shadow war in the Middle East requires a unified response from Arab states as well as strategic action from the international community. Arab nations must transcend their internal divisions to effectively counter Tehran’s influence. Additionally, as scholars like Kenneth M. Pollack suggest, the international community, particularly Western powers, needs to recognize and address the broader implications of Iran’s actions, which extend beyond its nuclear program.

A comprehensive strategy, blending diplomatic, economic and military efforts, is crucial in this regard. As Tehran continues to manipulate the Palestinian issue and sectarian narratives to advance its agenda, the importance of a concerted Arab and international response becomes increasingly evident. In this context, forging an alliance with Israel emerges as a pivotal strategy for Arab capitals. By aligning with the Jewish state, they can form a united bloc capable of effectively countering the influence of the Islamic regime.

This alliance, transcending historical animosities and focusing on shared strategic interests, represents a paradigm shift in Middle Eastern politics. It acknowledges the reality that the threats posed by Iran’s ambitions require regional solutions that leverage collective strengths. Such a partnership would not only serve as a bulwark against Iran’s maneuvers but also pave the way for a more integrated and resilient Middle East.

The collaboration between Arab states and Israel can extend beyond mere military alliances, encompassing economic partnerships and diplomatic efforts, thereby creating a robust and multifaceted front. This united approach is essential for safeguarding the region’s stability and future against Iran’s nuanced and multi-layered strategy. It represents a forward-thinking vision where common threats create opportunities for cooperation, ultimately leading to a more secure and prosperous Middle East.

The writer is director of Forward Strategy Ltd.