Is there a rift in Israel’s war cabinet?

It has been 105 days since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and over three months since Israel launched its comprehensive military operation in the Gaza Strip. As the operation transitioned into a new phase- a more precise, tactical strategy with less Israeli forces on the ground in Gaza- it is important to understand what has been accomplished thus far, and what lies ahead for decision makers in Israel. Israel is set on accomplishing its war objectives of dismantling Hamas and returning all Israeli captives, and its leadership has reinstated that it will not back down before these objectives have been accomplished.

Operational status updates:

The IDF ground operation began in the densely populated northern part of the Gaza Strip, a terror-heavy territory housing two Hamas brigades and 12 battalions, including hundreds of terrorists who committed the massacre of Israelis on October 7. Israel has made immense efforts to evacuate Gazan civilians from the battle zones to ensure that they will not be used as human shields by Hamas terrorists. 

In air raids prior to the ground entrance, the Israeli Air Force targeted terror infrastructure including hundreds of underground facilities, outlook posts and rigged buildings, reducing Hamas’ capabilities before the ground troops entered the Strip. With accurate intelligence and in accordance to international law, in the first days of combat, Israel significantly reduced Hamas’ ability to retaliate.

At the onset of the ground offensive, IDF troops successfully encircled the city of Jabalya in northern Gaza, later taking control of Gaza City and the rest of the northern region. 

A combined force consisting of over 200 tanks, combat brigades, combat engineering units and special forces entered the Strip, closely guided by IDF intelligence tracking developments in real time, providing intel enabling troops to effectively attack and safely maneuver inside the battle zone. Ground troops work in sync with Israel’s Air Force and military intelligence, with drones, UAVs and fighter aircrafts providing intel from above the ground and striking down targets, while using live intel from ground troops for its precision strikes. 

The close cooperation between the military forces is unprecedented and has been consistent throughout the entire operation. Israel has proven that when its ground troops, air force, navy and intelligence apparatus work together in synchronicity, it is able to effectively and tactically target posts, eliminate terror cells, and deter the enemy. But more time is needed. 

On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant noted that Israel has concluded the intensive phase of its offensive in northern Gaza, and that the concentrated fighting in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, will also end soon. In the ‘third phase’ of the war, which is expected to take up to six months, specialized Israeli units will carry out tactical operations. This third phase will consist of slow but steady progress as IDF forces advance house by house, street by street, and tunnel shaft by tunnel shaft, gradually eliminating Hamas.

As Israeli troops continue fighting close-range battles across the Strip in urban areas- in buildings, schools and hospitals, which house Hamas’ underground terror tunnel network, with tunnel shafts serving as the entry points into the subterranean city of terror- tunnels provide Hamas operatives protection, enabling them to move quicky and safely underground and surprise Israeli forces. Let us remember that the tunnels serve as the home of Hamas’ command-and-control centers and weapon depots and production facilities. 

The New York Times reported this week that the Hamas tunnels in Gaza, which were estimated to have been 250 miles in total, are now believed to be between 350 and 450 miles, while the Gaza Strip itself is only 25 miles at its longest point. The report also claims that officials estimate that there are approximately 5,700 tunnel shafts hidden across Gaza. Some tunnels are wide enough to drive cars inside them, and a seven-story deep tunnel was uncovered by the IDF, showcasing the scope and the complexity of the tunnel system. The IDF has destroyed hundreds of tunnels and entry shafts using classified military technology developed over the years and  since the start of the war.

Throughout the operation, troops have confiscated Hamas intelligence including computers, hard drives, maps and communication devices, amounting in over 70,000 million files, according to the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit. In addition, many Hamas militants have surrendered and have also provided critical information during interrogations.

In recent days, Israel’s Prime Minister, Defense Minister and IDF Chief of Staff have all reaffirmed to the Israeli public, and to the world, that the war will take time, and there are many months of fighting ahead.

The successes of the IDF in the war to date have enabled the army to withdraw large numbers of reserve forces. The return of reservists to the workforce, many of whom work in high-tech, will help the Israeli economy recover somewhat from the costs of the war, which are estimated at $220 million per day. And, in the event that the situation in the north deteriorates further, these reservists can quickly be deployed in a war against Hezbollah if needed. 

The psychological warfare that Hamas has been conducting against the Israeli public, with the release of videos of hostages in body bags and announcements of the death of captives, has taken its toll. Hamas is trying to deliver a clear message through these videos- if Israel continues fighting, more captives will die, mounting pressure on the Israeli government to agree to a ceasefire deal for their return.

This week, a rift appears to have developed in Israel’s war cabinet about the country’s conduct in Gaza, dividing the war cabinet members into two camps - Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity party, together with Gadi Eisenkot, an MK from National Unity, both of whom formerly served as IDF Chief of Staff - against Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi.

On Sunday, during a war cabinet meeting, Eisenkot was reported to have said, “We need to stop lying to ourselves. We need to show courage and lead a major agreement that will bring the abductees home. There is no need to continue to march blindly while the abductees are there. This is a critical time to make brave decisions. Otherwise, we have nothing to look for here.”  

From the reports, it appears that Gantz and Eisenkot are pushing for a policy that would end fighting in return for the release of Israeli hostages, which they seem to believe is the only effective way to get them out. In Eisenkot’s view, the IDF is strong enough to take a break from the fighting now to ensure the return of the captives, and will be able to confront Hamas again in the future, effectively ending the current war.

On the opposing side, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gallant, and IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi are backing the position that the continuation of the military operation, putting further pressure on Hamas, is the only way to ensure the eventual release of the captives. A lengthy ceasefire, in their opinion, will weaken Israel strategically. In a war of terror, they believe, taking a ‘shortcut’ – giving in to the demands of terrorists – will lead to future hostage-taking and another massacre of Israelis.

From their vantage point, only the continued application of military pressure will lead to the freeing of captives. This is what led to the hostage release deals thus far, they claim.

Netanyahu, Gallant, and Halevi believe that while sanctifying and preserving life is an essential part of the Israeli DNA, pausing or ending the war in exchange for the return of the hostages would be a major mistake. There are several goals to the war, and they do not always converge. One aim is bringing back the hostages, but another is dismantling the military capabilities of Hamas to ensure that they cannot pose a threat to Israel. If Hamas is allowed to retain its military capabilities- rearm and restructure during a ceasefire- residents of the Gaza Envelope communities will never be able to return to their towns and kibbutzim.

Moreover, Iran and its proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Huthis, Islamic Jihad, ISIS, and terror cells in Iraq and Syria – are waiting to see how Israel reacts. According to this point of view, if Israel were to pause or end the fighting in order to free hostages while leaving Hamas’ weaponry and leadership intact, Israel’s enemies would take notice. They will see that Israel is vulnerable to hostage-taking and it will only be a matter of time before the next Iran-sponsored attack or kidnapping occurs. 

Continuing the fighting enables Israel to retain its power of deterrence. After the events of October 7, Israel must have zero tolerance for terror.

Bringing back the captives is closely tied to continuing the fight against Hamas. Only this will deter our enemies and will provide a clear message to Iran and its proxies that Israel will not give in to terror. It will force Yahya Sinwar to abandon his dream that, somehow, the IDF will give up on Gaza, enabling Hamas to retain its power for him and his successors. According to this school of thought, military pressure is the most effective way to the ensure the release of Israeli captives and deter Israel’s enemies from pursuing further attacks.    

It is important to mention that Israel’s leaders are not indifferent or insensitive to the hostages and their families. They have spent countless hours strategizing ways to get them out of Gaza, both in internal discussions and in international negotiations. Unfortunately, this war has tested Israeli leadership, presenting them with tough and critical decisions that impact the lives and survival of the captives, soldiers, evacuated Israeli civilians and the Israeli society as a whole. The State of Israel, the only true democracy in the Middle East, is being tested as a whole- its leadership, army and civilians. Each decision is due to change the future of the Jewish State, and the stakes are high. Let us hope that the third stage of the war will lead to stability in Israel, Gaza and the entire region.