Early elections in Israel: Yes or no? - opinion

As I listened to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s news conference last Thursday, I was convinced that despite the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, we urgently need new elections.

Speaking against early elections, Netanyahu stated that it will merely encourage disunity at a time when unity is most urgently required, since each side will present its positions, and attack the other.

He added that he planned to stay around for a while, and that anyone except for himself, who might be elected, will bring about the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He added that the problem is not to establish a new state, but to preserve the one that already exists – namely, the State of Israel.

Does Netanyahu have the upper hand in the elections?

In other words, even though he rejects early elections, Netanyahu is already electioneering, while seeking to deny his opponents the moral right to do the same. He added insult to injury by verbally attacking two TV reporters who asked him difficult questions that were not to his liking – Sefi Ovadia from Channel 13, and Yair Sherki from Channel 12.

Why the opponents of the current all-right government want early elections is not difficult to understand. Recent opinion polls show the current coalition losing its absolute parliamentary majority of 64. 

There are many reasons for this. Firstly, those who demonstrated against the government’s judicial reform earlier this year, because they saw it as an anti-democratic constitutional revolution, are still opposed to it for the same reasons, even though the so-called reform seems, at best, to be on hold.

Secondly, the coalition is being blamed for the October 7 military disaster, with Hamas’s invasion of southern Israel that caught Israel by complete surprise. It took the IDF more than 24 hours to gain control of the invasion. 

The coalition is blamed for not reacting effectively – organizationally, socially, and financially – to the results of the situation created, including the taking of some 240 hostages (both Israeli and non-Israeli) to the Gaza Strip, and the call-up of more than 300,000 reservists. Many have served continuously for 90 days and more, incurring serious personal financial repercussions.

Thirdly, for Netanyahu, the survival of his all-right coalition comes at almost any cost, as he tries to shield himself from his legal travails. Thus, he is inclined to play a game of brinkmanship with the US administration, even though without its generous backing and assistance, Israel could not survive the current embroilment. 

Among the differences of opinion between Netanyahu and the US are the intensity of the continued fighting, the conditions for humanitarian aid for the civilian population in the Gaza Strip, and the goal – which includes the US demand (and of most of the international community, for that matter) – that it include the two-state solution.

Fourthly, the Israeli opposition, as well as the National Unity Party, share President Joe Biden’s aversion to the extreme right-wing elements in Netanyahu’s 64-member coalition – especially Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, as well as the policies espoused by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in their respective ministries – National Security and Finance. 

The damage caused by the two keeps mounting. Even though Netanyahu is undoubtedly aware of the damage being caused by them, he prefers maintaining this partnership, rather than with Benny Gantz. The National Unity Party leader entered the emergency government only because of the war, and has made it clear that he plans to leave it as soon as this is feasible.

Fifthly, after more than 100 days of fighting in the Gaza Strip, the IDF is still far from achieving its two main goals: eradicating Hamas as a military force and a governing apparatus, and freeing the remaining 136 living and dead hostages from Hamas and its accomplices. 

While the opposition blames the current government for the apparent stalemate, elements in the government blame the military (especially Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi) – a situation that has given rise to some shameful scenes in the broader security and foreign affairs cabinet.

Some ministers, coalition MKs, and pro-Netanyahu media have also accused Gantz and his partner, Gadi Eisenkot – both of whom are members of the narrow war cabinet – for the stalemate. The situation is farcical, and unbecoming of the grave circumstances.

Finally, families of the hostages, and their supporters, maintain that Netanyahu and his government are not doing enough to bring the hostages home, as time runs out on the captives’ survival.

IN CONTRAST, the all-right coalition has good reasons to oppose early elections. Firstly, even opinion polls prepared by Shlomo Filber for the pro-government TV Channel 14 predict a defeat for the current all-right coalition. 

The anticipated defeat is not necessarily based on a significant strengthening of the center-left block, but rather on dissatisfaction with Likud’s performance among more moderate, pragmatic right-wingers, who are likely to form alternative right-wing parties toward the next elections. These might include former Mossad head Yossi Cohen and former prime minister Naftali Bennett. 

It is believed that these forces will be more inclined to join a national unity government with the Center-Left, which will not be led by Netanyahu and might (or might not) include a much-weakened Likud.

The second argument against early elections is that like Netanyahu, most of his political bloc believes that he is irreplaceable, even though they see his many faults, including his inclination to spread falsehoods (Smotrich actually referred to him as “a liar, son of a liar”); to take credit for the achievements of others, and to make promises he has no intension of keeping. 

Since it is doubtful whether Netanyahu will remain prime minister if early elections are held, and since formally the current government can continue to serve until 2026 unless at least five members of the current coalition choose to vote for early elections (the likelihood of which seems slim), Netanyahu and his bloc have no real incentive to seek early elections.

Incidentally, Netanyahu himself believes that he is the only political leader in Israel who will do everything to block the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is undeniable that a vast majority of Jewish Israelis oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, at least in the foreseeable future.

So far, the IDF has failed to bring down Hamas, or free more than just a single live Israeli hostage. But Netanyahu and his government believe that if given more time, it might still end up catching Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders, dead or alive – even though Sinwar has allegedly surrounded himself with Israeli hostages as a shield. Releasing live hostages through military force makes the chances of both goals being attained simultaneously meager. 

In the final reckoning, what weakens the prospects for early elections is the situation in northern Israel, and the possibility of a second war front developing between Israel and Hezbollah. In this situation, Gantz and Eisenkot are likely to remain a little longer in the current emergency government.

The writer worked in the Knesset for many years as a researcher, and has published extensively both journalistic and academic articles on current affairs and Israeli politics. Her most recent book, Israel’s Knesset Members – A Comparative Study of an Undefined Job, was published by Routledge.