Impossible dilemmas for the Israeli leadership

Operational updates:

This week’s ground operation was marked by a tragic incident that resulted in the death of 21 Israeli soldiers, with another three soldiers killed in another incident on the same day, raising the death toll of Israel’s ground operation in Gaza to 221. This was the deadliest incident for the IDF since the battle to defend Israel October 7th.

Only several hundred meters away from the border between Gaza and Israel’s southern communities, the IDF’s combat engineer battalion set explosives in buildings believed to house Hamas terror infrastructure. According to IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari, a terrorist squad surprised Israeli troops, shooting a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) at the one of the buildings, setting off an explosion that led to the building’s collapse and the death of the troops operating inside the structure. Hamas terrorists then shot another RPG at a tank stationed outside the buildings, killing its commander another soldier before they had a chance to fire back.

Despite this tragedy, the spirits of the soldiers are high, and the IDF is continuing its ground offensive with the aim of destroying terror infrastructure throughout the Strip, including Hamas’ terror tunnel network, while continuing to target terror cells on the ground.

This deadly week for Israel- with nation-wide military funerals and grieving families of fallen soldiers- was intensified by the growing outcry by the families of the hostages demanding the return of their relatives.

For Israeli War Cabinet officials, these internal quandaries were only made more difficult by the developments brewing outside Israel. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that the US submitted a deal to Israel – the “first joint plan by Arab states to end the war in Gaza and set a pathway towards a two-state solution”, putting on the table normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel in return for a cessation of fighting and a pathway to a Palestinians state.

The domestic and international developments of this week leave Israeli decision makers with yet another set of dilemmas as they look ahead at postwar Gaza, and postwar Israel, on the day after the war.A major challenge has presented itself over the past week, as families of the hostages increase pressure on the Israeli government to negotiate for the immediate release of their loved ones. In the first 100 days since the outbreak of the war, demonstrations by the families and their supporters were polite and civil. However, in the past week, protests have intensified and the families changed their tune and tone, leveling up calls to reach a deal with Hamas at any cost, emphasizing their disappointment with the government and its wartime conduct.

Tensions peaked when family members burst into the Knesset Finance Committee session on Monday, demanding that the government prioritizes the immediate release of the captives and places this end above all other military and political objectives. As the number of hostages declared dead rises from week to week, families of captives reached the conclusion that the government’s approach and belief that only increased military pressure will urge Hamas to come to the table and agree to a release deal is no longer effective, and that at this stage, Israel must agree to end the fighting in order to ensure the release of captives.

It is important to remember that after over 100 days in captivity, many hostages are in need of urgent medical care, and out of the 130-some hostages, a portion are believed to be dead. There are over a dozen hostages over the age of 60 as well as chronically ill captives who haven’t received proper medical treatment, if any at all.

Israel stands at a critical junction as it enters a serious round of renewed negotiations on a possible deal to return the hostages in return for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. These negotiations are moderated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, headed by CIA Director William J. Burns and with the personal involvement of President Joe Biden.

Behind the scenes, details about the negotiations begun to leak from various news sources, as Israel gets close to a pivotal moment in the negotiations. The longer they take, the greater the chances that there may not be any living hostages to return. Moreover, major players including Saudi Arabia and the United States, as well as part of Israeli society, are beginning to link a permanent ceasefire with the return of the captives. These parties have also concluded that in order to create a new order in Gaza without Hamas, an international force, combined with the influence of the United States and Saudi Arabia, is required.

All of the content of the past three months has now been placed on the table – the war, the captives, the ‘day after’ in Gaza, normalization with Saudi Arabia, and a Palestinian state. Due to the fierce fighting, with mounting casualties on the Palestinian side, Israel’s destruction of much of Gaza’s infrastructure, the hundreds of dead and wounded on the Israeli side, as well as the upcoming US presidential election, the window for an agreement orchestrated by the Biden Administration is closing.

According to reports, Israel is proposing a protracted ceasefire for the return of the hostages, though it would not agree a complete cessation of hostilities. The families of the hostages also support a ceasefire of long duration in order to reach a deal to free their relatives, starting with the humanitarian release of the sick and infirm.

While Israel would consider a lengthy ceasefire, Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday rejected a Hamas proposal to end the war and release captives in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, releasing Palestinian prisoners, and accepting Hamas rule over Gaza. “I reject outright the terms of surrender of the monsters of Hamas,” Netanyahu said. “If we accept this, we won’t be able to guarantee the safety of our citizens. We will not be able to bring evacuees home safely, and the next October 7 will only be a matter of time.”

Hamas, on the other hand, is hoping that any temporary ceasefire it can achieve with Israel will eventually become a permanent one, and will try to stretch out the ceasefire with phased hostage releases that will drag on and ultimately lead to the end of the war, with Hamas remaining in power in Gaza. This presents a dilemma for Israel’s War Cabinet, as well as those assisting with the negotiations – the United States, Qatar, and the Egyptians.

We are entering a very sensitive stage. On the one hand, Israel cannot leave the Hamas terror infrastructure intact, with over 500 miles of underground tunnels and a substantial weapon arsenal. On the other, how can Israel bring back the hostages when Hamas wants to enact a permanent ceasefire, which will prevent Israel from destroying the terror infrastructure, therefore leaving Israel’s security in threat?

Above all stands the question of how Israel will respond to the proposal presented to Israel headed by Saudi Arabia, representing five Arab countries, together with the United States, as reported by WSJ. The proposal would involve an end to the war in return for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the beginning of a two-state solution with a Palestinian state.

Normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be a major strategic achievement for Israel and is thought to be a game changer for the Middle East as a whole, bringing US influence back into the region in a major way while shifting the balance of power between the moderate axis and the Iranian axis.

In addition, the Arab states do not want Hamas rule in Gaza in the day after the war, and in effect, the agreement connects the end of the war to an all-encompassing political agreement for Israel and the entire Middle East. Everything has now been placed in one volatile pot.

If such an agreement were to be reached, the United States and the Saudis would install an international force to maintain order in Gaza, and the ‘Hamulot,’ or large families in Gaza, would govern day-to-day civilian life. It is also hoped that the Palestinian Authority could act as a moderating factor in both Gaza and the West Bank, while Israel wants the Gulf countries to help rebuild Gaza, but those countries will make their support conditional on a pathway to a two-state solution.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and the War Cabinet have now been presented with a type of triple dilemma – how to conduct the war, how to free the hostages, and how to obtain normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. Without question, Netanyahu genuinely wants to see the hostages returned, despite the perception that this, to him, is the lesser goal out of the two top war objectives.

Achieving full diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia would undoubtedly be historic win and mark the legacy of Netanyahu as the carrier for peace, and could even net him a Nobel Peace Prize. Yet, he is vehemently opposed to ending the war at this point.

Domestically, Netanyahu’s coalition partners, hardliners Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, would never support the Saudi-led proposal which sets the grounds for a Palestinian state. The only way to secure this deal is by obtaining the support of Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot from the National Unity party, who are currently in the war cabinet. Gantz and Eisenkot are considered the moderate voices leading this war and if they put their political differences with Netanyahu aside, they could be partners to a historic peace deal. If Netanyahu manages to create a new axis with Gantz’s National Unity Party, ditching his current governments extreme right-wing factions headed by Ben Gvir and Smotrich, Israel has a real chance at reaching an agreement with the Saudis.

Will Israel’s moderate war cabinet members help Netanyahu achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia? Can Israel free the hostages in the context of a ceasefire and return to the fighting at a later date?  These are the dilemmas of Israel’s leaders at this fateful time.