Are elections an option? - opinion

In the time that has gone by since October 7, each week seems to bring with it a new set of dilemmas and question marks, while stability and security appear increasingly illusive.

Recent developments appear to distance the fulfillment of the promise, repeatedly made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for a complete victory over the Hamas, and it becomes increasingly unclear what the hoped for “complete victory” actually entails. Together with the illusive “complete victory” over the Hamas, so the return of all 134 remaining hostages – alive or dead – whether by means of a combination of intuition and force, or by means of a painful and humiliating deal with what remains of Hamas, is turning into more of a vague hope than a certainty.

One keeps wishing that all these thoughts are merely the result of ignorance and lack of concrete information, and that one will wake up one fine morning and discover that not only No. 3 in the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is definitely gone, but also Nos. 1 and 2, and that the hostages are all on their way home in time to celebrate Passover with their families, or at least be brought home for burial, so that their families can finally sit shiva for them.

One of the most bewildering and aggravating elements in the current situation is manifestations of growing tensions in Israel’s relations with the US administration – tensions the administration insists are the result of the conduct of our prime minister, rather than any change in its own attitude to the people of Israel and its just confrontation with the Hamas. Netanyahu keeps warding off this argument with the counterargument that he is fully supported by a majority of the Israeli population, so that distinguishing between his own conduct and the wishes of “the people” is false.

Tensions Between Israel and US

The specific issues that are reported to stand at the base of the tensions are the American allegations that Israel is not careful enough in avoiding civilian casualties – especially of children – on the Palestinian side; that Israel is not being sufficiently cooperative regarding international humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip (even though Israel has moved a long way from its initial position of “no humanitarian aid without the complete defeat of Hamas and the release of all the hostages”); that Netanyahu refuses to hold talks on “the day after,” concerning the administration of the post-Hamas Gaza Strip; and that despite continuous US prodding, Israel is planning an attack on the town of Rafah, without presenting a plan on how to protect the lives and well-being of over one million Gazan refugees from the wreckage of the northern Gaza Strip, who are currently living in tents in the Rafah area.

What is most worrying about this situation is that already it has been reported that the administration appears to be slowing down munition deliveries to Israel. Though the administration officially denies that this is the case, reported shortages of certain types of munitions in the IDF are giving rise to concern, especially in the current constellation, in which the fighting in the Gaza Strip itself has not been concluded, and it is not yet known whether the violent clashes with Hezbollah along Israel’s borders with Lebanon and Syria will end in a satisfactory diplomatic arrangement or develop into a full-scale war.

If one needed any further proof that something is amiss in official US-Israel relations, a speech was delivered in the US Senate last Thursday by Jewish Democratic Senator, Chuck Schumer from New York, who serves as leader of the Senate majority, to the effect that in his opinion Netanyahu is one of the main obstacles to peace in the Middle East, and that he “has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel.” Schumer concluded by calling for Netanyahu’s removal from the Israeli leadership by means of elections.

Though Schumer is not a member of the US executive, but a legislator, he is reported to have informed President Joe Biden of the gist of his speech in advance, and Biden reacted by referring to it as “a good speech” that reflected the concerns of many Americans. The question is whether what Schumer said, besides being embarrassing to the prime minister himself, is of any practical significance.

In the short term, Schumer’s speech might well provide encouragement to those in Israel who believe that new elections are vital, due to the growing dissonance between the actual parliamentary majority enjoyed by the current government and the predictions of all the opinion polls regarding the results of elections if these were held today. In fact, the results show that the majority held by the parties that make up Netanyahu’s “all-right” coalition is likely to turn from 64 Knesset seats to a minority of less than 50 seats, and this largely because the number of Likud MKs is predicted to be more or less halved from its current number, while Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party appears in danger of not getting past the qualifying threshold (unlike Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, which appears to be gaining in popularity).

It should be noted that the Israeli Right does not appear to be weakening, but, rather, to be moving away from populism in the direction of a more respectable statism (mamlachtiyut), with several former leaders returning to the political game, and several new figures joining in for the first time (the name of the charismatic former Mossad head Yossi Cohen is mentioned).

The Left is also given chances of a certain revival should Meretz (which didn’t pass the qualifying threshold in the 2022 elections) and the Labor Party (which the polls predict will not pass if it will run again on its own) will manage to unite under a new leader, together with some of the activists from the Kaplan protest movement.

However, unless one of the elements within Netanyahu’s current all-right coalition will decide to defect, the feasibility of a majority voting in the Knesset in the foreseeable future in favor of early elections seems extremely low. This assumes that Netanyahu will manage to resolve the problem of the haredi military enlistment law, which is currently on the agenda, without any major change in the existing status quo, and will manage to keep Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir out of the narrow war cabinet, without inducing a major coalition crisis.

Furthermore, since Minister-without-portfolio Gideon Sa’ar and his party, New Hope (with its four MKs), decided to break away from the National Unity Party headed by Benny Gantz, the automatic majority of the all-right coalition might actually increase to 68.

What all this means is that the current government might actually linger on until the end of October 2026, even if the opposition to it will continue to mount, and a national commission of inquiry is actually formed in order to investigate the misconceptions and lacunae that led up to the catastrophe of October 7.

Whether Netanyahu will actually manage to survive all of this is yet to be seen. In the meantime, there will be an American presidential election, which could actually shuffle the cards for everyone.

The writer worked in the Knesset for many years as a researcher, and has published extensively both journalistic and academic articles on current affairs and Israeli politics. Her most recent book, Israel’s Knesset Members – A Comparative Study of an Undefined Job, was published by Routledge.