Time for brave decisions - opinion

More than six months into the war that has ensued following Hamas’ brutal and heinous attack on October 7th, Israel finds itself at a historical crossroads. Despite the considerable operational achievements on the battlefield, none of the war's objectives have been fully achieved. A total of 133 hostages are still being held in Gaza, and Hamas has not yet been decisively defeated. At the INSS we have published a strategic roadmap for “The Day After” that presents an alternative strategic path for achieving most of the war’s goals and substantially improves Israel's strategic position by prioritizing diplomatic and political solutions over continued military action, turning operational gains into political and international achievements. As result, a series of strategic decisions must be taken by Israel’s political leadership in order to achieve victory in the fullest and most comprehensive sense—that is, improving Israel’s long-term security. 

The combined Iranian attack together with its regional proxies on the morning of April 14th is a prime example of the importance of Israel’s regional and global alliances, which enabled it to swiftly thwart the unprecedented attack. It underscores the importance of crafting a long-term strategy, built on forming coalitions and expanding relations with Israel’s Arab neighbors, one that has taken years to develop and implement. It also highlights the general trajectory of the Middle East’s moderate Sunni-Arab states, even with widespread public criticism against Israel’s operation in Gaza, towards a wider security arrangement in conjunction with Israel and the United States that is focused on creating a muscular regional deterrent against Iranian regional expansion. As a result, this provides an opening for Israel enhance and deepen its cooperation with the United States and its regional partners, while utilizing its expanding ties with its Arab neighbors to achieve an exit strategy from Gaza. Our proposal outlines a plan that will allow for a governing alternative to Hamas, while providing the basis for further integrating Israel politically, militarily, and economically with its regional partners. 

Israel’s current strategy has led to increasing international isolation, including a fractured relationship with the United States and the loss of its “ironclad” support, the rising potential for a violent outbreak or worse, in Judea and Samaria, and challenges to Israel’s peace agreements with Arab states, particularly Jordan and Egypt.  More so, halting the operational momentum in the Gaza Strip and losing the initiative, while slipping into a long war of attrition in both the southern and northern arenas, will diminish the reputation of Israel’s military strength and its deterrence against Iran and the axis of resistance, and will lead to Israel missing out on the historic opportunity for normalization with Saudi Arabia and wider regional economic integration. 

First, Israel needs to quickly pursue a hostage deal, despite the heavy price involved in the release of terrorists, which includes a (seemingly unlimited) ceasefire. Next, Israel must acknowledge that an upgraded and reformed Palestinian Authority is the preferred pragmatic solution for an alternative government in the Gaza Strip to Hamas, beginning with local Fatah entities connected to the Palestinian Authority which will undergo reform processes. When the ceasefire comes into effect, Israel must utilize it to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip, flooding it with aid, including food and medicine which local Fatah entities will distribute. Finally, Israel should then initiate a plan for the hermetic closure of the Philadelphi Corridor to stop the smuggling of military equipment into Gaza in close cooperation with Egypt and the United States. A military operation in Rafah will occur at a later date as part of the postwar stabilization efforts. 

On Israel’s home front, the tens of thousands of residents who fled from the northern part of Israel should return to their homes as quickly as possible. A ceasefire in Gaza will allow an arrangement of a new security regime on Israel’s northern border, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The arrangement will require effective monitoring of its implementation by the international community, as well as reinforcing the international forces present in southern Lebanon.

The formation and cohesion of the resistance front composed of the Iranian-Shiite axis and the Palestinian resistance organizations has eroded Israeli deterrence and increased the sense of dangerous self-confidence among Israel’s enemies. Therefore, a correct definition of victory in this war entails weakening the Iranian axis by increasing deterrence and regional defense integration between Israel and its regional partners. To achieve these aims, American support is essential to pressure and deter Iran to restrain its regional proxy forces.

Promoting these policy recommendations will prevent Israel’s isolation in the international arena, return Israel’s relationship with its closest ally to its natural position, and reignite the normalization process with Saudi Arabia as part of a US-led security architecture to push back against Iran and the axis of resistance.

The State of Israel is facing one of its most challenging periods, both in terms of its international standing and its domestic situation. It is difficult to envision an improvement in this reality without taking decisive decisions in response to the array of challenges it faces. At the same time, continued indecision will hinder the achievement of the objectives of the war and erode military accomplishments.

At this point, we must do everything in our power to improve the country’s strategic situation, seize the opportunities at hand, and act according to the priorities of Israel’s national security and its citizens.”

Major General (res.) Tamir Hayman is the Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)