How Raisi's death will affect the relations between Azerbaijan, Armenia - opinion

Recently, the helicopter of the Islamic Republic of Iran president Ebrahim Raisi crashed in a wooded area in the Azerbaijan province, close to the border with Iran as it was returning from a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. After a lengthy search, Raisi was found dead along with Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdullihan and others.

Raisi, who served as the president of Iran from August 2021 and was part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) leadership since its inception was very important to the success of the Islamic Revolution that changed the face of Iran in 1979.

Raisi’s death is no small matter, but rather a twist in Shi’ite Islam’s geopolitical and geostrategic world that may affect many of the political processes that Iran has been promoting. The question being asked is how the sudden death of Iran’s president Raisi will affect the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia no longer had the leisure to let Russian soldiers remain and actively support Armenia in its fight against Azerbaijan. This situation caused Armenia to look for a new protector and the Islamic Republic entered this slot.

Iran's role in reviving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Tehran benefits from regional conflicts because, with their help, it manages to infiltrate local politics and bring in the “agents of the Islamic revolutionary ideology.” In addition, Iran has a clear interest in the Caucasus region and its support for Armenia is understandable.

Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel have often painted Azerbaijan and its leader President Ilham Aliyev as Israel’s agents in the region. It also raises concerns of a future Israeli attack on Iranian territory that would come out of Azerbaijan’s territory. Iran acts according to its interests, which is why it enlisted the help of Armenia.

Under Raisi’s rule as president of Iran, the Islamic Republic used its connections and efforts to revive the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict on both fronts. On the Azerbaijani side, Iran activated the pro-Iranian Shia militia that was led by the Quds Force commander at the time, Qasem Soleimani, the “Huseynyun,” whose people are not Persians but ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Azerbaijan.

Although the Huseynyun does not carry out distinct and murderous acts of terrorism as do the other guerrilla groups that Iran operates in the Middle East, they operate through subversion under the Azerbaijani government and commit crimes such as drug smuggling (and, apparently, join Assad and Hezbollah as Iranian proxies that make a living from the drug trade, which is forbidden in Islam).

On the Armenian side, the Iranians are working to weaken the governmental legitimacy of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who dictates a conciliatory policy and seeks to calm the situation and regulate relations with Azerbaijan.

There are suspicions that the Iranians are using the Armenian Church to inflame Armenian religious and national feelings and strengthen the voice calling for the full annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Church speaks out publicly against the government’s decisions and in favor of the opposition – and plans demonstrations and marches against the government.

In addition, Iran’s ambassador to Armenia is the former Iranian ambassador to Syria, which in itself proves the Islamic Republic’s interest in Armenia. Its ambassadors in Syria and Lebanon are always former senior Quds Force personnel, whose role is to protect Tehran’s interests abroad.

The Iranians did not sit idly by and watch their emissaries in the Caucasus but entered the new geopolitical game created by the Ukraine-Russia war. Following the Russian invasion of the territories of Ukraine, Western sanctions were imposed on Russia that prevented it from buying weapons in large quantities. The Iranians recognized a business opportunity and took full advantage of it.

Allegedly, with the help of the Armenian shadow man, Ruben Vardanyan, who was the minister of the State of Artsakh (Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh) and a member of the close circle of friends of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, a triangle of three key people was formed here, each of with different interests. The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, sent shipments of weapons, such as suicide drones, to Putin’s Russia through Armenia. As has already been mentioned above, Iran benefits from regional conflicts that allow it to penetrate local politics and channel it to promote its interests.

Ruben Vardanyan, who, in addition to serving as Minister of State of the Artsakh region, used to finance Armenian terrorist groups and belongs to the more nationalist circles in Armenia, those who oppose the current government. Vardanyan, who fled Russia after the start of the war to avoid Western sanctions and save his fortune, is the one who made the connection (apparently) between the Iranians and the Russians. Before he was arrested by the Azerbaijani forces, he already began to see himself running for the presidency and to improve the economy of the Armenian people at a time when there is increasing criticism of the Prime Minister.

Vardanyan is a hardliner in Armenian politics, opposed to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Due to his opposition to peace, when he was arrested, he faced charges not only for financing terrorism and illegally crossing international borders but also for opposing the peace process, as he frequently incited violence against Azerbaijan.

When there is violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran is a main beneficiary, as Armenia’s only window to the outside world, with the country blockaded on three sides.

But in times of peace, Armenia doesn’t need Iran, as it is able to trade via Turkey, Azerbaijan, and other neighboring countries. Therefore, the Islamic Republic is interested in maintaining the conflict, to keep the landlocked country dependent. Vardanyan assisted the Iranians with this, as his separatist regime effectively blocked peace between the two peoples. And of course, Putin, who needs weapons for his war and to circumvent the Western sanctions, has also benefited from this triangular relationship between Vardanyan, Russia, and Iran.

How will Raisi’s death affect the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan? When we look at the processes that have taken place in recent years in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan, (during Raisi’s president), we can clearly see the deterioration in the relations between the two countries. Another war after the war in 2020 in Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenian attacks on the territory of Azerbaijan; funding of terrorist groups; and even a cartoon depicting the president of Azerbaijan with antisemitic symbols such as a big nose (published in Iran), all highlight this point. Iran pushed for the deterioration of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to advance its national interests.

Today, with Raisi dead and Vardanyan out of the political arena (currently held in an Azerbaijani prison), it seems that the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan could improve if there is a regime change in Iran. This is unlikely, however, as Raisi’s death did not bring any change to the Iranian system.

Nevertheless, Raisi’s death is a big setback for the Iranian regime and it will take them time to regroup under a new leadership before they can continue their nefarious activities.

The writer is a prominent Middle East scholar and commentator.