Can the new national camp survive in the post-Oct. 7 reality? - opinion

This is the second installment revisiting the vision of the new national camp (NNC) in today’s post-October 7 reality. In the first segment I summarized the theory and examined the competing theories. In this piece I will measure the NNC model within the framework of the current political climate, including a current scenario poll and the political reality of post-October 7 Israel.

Today’s political climate

I maintain, as I contended two years ago, that Israel is naturally comprised of four camps: Right, Left, Center, and the NNC. The disagreements between the Center and the NNC are not on details or means; rather, they are on principles and goals. Yet, the two groups can bridge the divide and form a new coalition in the future.

I believe that the main arguments on the Israeli political agenda can be explained by my proposed political triangle in a way that the other suggested political theories fail. The Palestinian issue, before October 7, became an issue where both the Jewish and the security sides were in tension with the democratic side. The national security issues of the war in Gaza, after the 7th, and the diplomatic discussions of “the day after,” share the same tensions.

The haredi draft issue has become one where both the democratic and the security sides are in tension with the Jewish side. Judicial reform created a situation in which the Jewish and the democratic sides became so dominant that the security side of the triangle was neglected and jeopardized before the war. It is precisely because we started to lose one side of the triangle that we lost our identity as a nation. We are not simply a Jewish and democratic state of two camps – we are a Jewish, democratic, and secure state.

2022 polling and the 25th Knesset elections

Two years ago, a Jerusalem Post scenario poll gave the NNC 12 seats, and another poll gave the NNC 15 seats. It was clear if a party with then-prime minister Naftali Bennett, New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar, and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman ran together that the NNC would enter the campaign season with an opening position in double digits and would become the third largest faction in the Knesset.

That never happened. Bennett, the leader of the NNC, resigned as prime minister, did not merge with an existing party, announced he would be taking a break from politics, and named his #2, then-interior minister Ayelet Shaked, as his  political successor. Liberman, who was finance minister at the time, decided to ignore noneconomic issues in his campaign. Sa’ar chose to move to the Center, instead of remaining in the middle. Benny Gantz announced upon the merger that, together with Sa’ar, he was “establishing the home of the stately Center.” At the time, I suggested Right-leaning voters would be unlikely to vote for Gantz, even with NNC figures such as Sa’ar, Ze’ev Elkin, and Sharren Haskel on the list and that it could lead to a Netanyahu victory.

The NNC that won 20 seats in the 24th Knesset was cut in half to 10 seats in the 25th Knesset. Liberman lost a seat and was reduced from seven to six seats. Sa’ar, as part of his merger with Gantz, lost two seats going from six to four seats, and the Yamina-Bayit Yehudi merger led by Shaked did not pass the threshold.

The post-October 7 reality

Events drive the political agenda. Since October 7, security has become paramount in most political discussions. It is also possible that the next election will be a “political October 7” – in that everything will be different from here on out.

In a recent poll of 1,100 people conducted for the Madad website for Dr. Micha Goodman’s book, The Eighth Day, Israelis were asked on a scale of one to 10 how important is it that Israeli society be united? The average in the poll was 8.4. The most interesting figure I found in that poll was that the group that prioritized unity the most was what they labeled as “soft right,” and I would label as the NNC, with 9.1. The traditional right was second with 8.9 and the Center was third and slightly under the average with 8.2.

A Channel 13 poll conducted last month found that if elections were held today, Gantz would win 30 seats, Liberman 11, and Sa’ar wouldn’t pass the threshold. However, if an NNC-themed party of Bennett, Sa’ar, and another new player ran – the former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen – they would get 32 seats, and Gantz would drop to 15.

In such a scenario the Jewish side of the triangle, the Right and haredim, win 40 seats. The NNC would receive 39 seats with the addition of Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.  The Center parties of Gantz and opposition leader Yair Lapid would win 23 seats, compared to the 36 seats they jointly received in the last election. Finally, the democratic side of the triangle, the Left and Arab parties, would receive 18 seats.

These poll results illustrate that the middle is not Center, it is Right. Many Israelis are flocking to the security side of the triangle with the Center getting a big boost. However, unity is key, and if a strong NNC option that provides a balance between the Jewish, democratic and security principles presents itself, it can replace the Center as the largest political camp in the next election.

This type of NNC party – that views unity as an ideology – could build a coalition with parties from both the Center and the Right and best achieve the aim of a wide coalition in the next government. A wide coalition led by those who share all the values important to Israelis is best suited to unite all sectors and help Israel meet the challenges ahead, together.

The writer has held various elected and appointed political positions on the local and national levels.