A Palestinian state will lead to war against the US - opinion

In July 2022, the US declared its “commitment to work together with Israel against Iran’s aggression and destabilizing activities, whether direct or through its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.” 

Now, instead of collaborating to effectively confront Iran’s “a Palestinian state that will pose an existential threat to Israel. This goal not only contradicts the commitment outlined in the joint declaration but also constitutes a significant threat to the US itself.

While Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, mentioned in the declaration, are currently united in war against Israel, at some point, despite Iranian strategists currently focusing mainly on Israel, Tehran will inevitably turn its attention and resources back to America (as the American Enterprise Institute has noted). 

Iran's proxies

In December 2023, a report by the US Congressional Homeland Security Committee stated that “the national security threat posed by the growing number of fugitives at the southwestern border – especially from America’s enemies, including Hamas and Hezbollah supported by Iran – was reinforced by the terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7.” In other words, the threats to Israel from Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah are also threats to the United States, as Iran’s strategy against Israel is part of its strategy against the West.

In South America, Tehran has managed to cultivate relationships with its allies, such as Venezuela, which reinforce the anti-American agenda. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, fighting against Israel and targeting shipping in the Red Sea, are another common enemy serving Iranian interests – as the consequences of their ongoing attacks extend beyond warfare, affecting regional and international stability.

According to social psychology, resistance to a common threat links parties that otherwise have different interests. In this situation, the goal of eliminating Israel binds together Shia Iran and Sunni Palestinians, despite their longstanding religious and ethnic differences. 

The war against the US is part of the same struggle – but Iran employs another psychological tactic appealing to the West’s misunderstanding of the term “peace in the Middle East.” While for Iran, a Palestinian state would represent a religious and ideological victory for Islam, for many in the West, the promise of a “two-state solution” represents a different ideology, one that emerged from the UN’s moral bankruptcy as the only path to peace.

Peace, in the Western sense, is not what Iran and its Islamist allies seek, but they clearly understand that the West sees the establishment of a Palestinian state as a done deal. By supporting a Palestinian state, they psychologically manipulate Western naivety and promote their interests based on Islamist values. A Palestinian state is only the first step in the plan to establish Iranian “proxy states” that will serve as its diplomatic soldiers in the next war. The Biden administration and the West must oppose this idea as an American interest, not just an Israeli one, because the next war will likely be against the United States.

The writer, a PhD, is a senior fellow and analyst in political psychology at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a member of the emergency division of the IDF Home Front Command.