Polls show Biden's era was over well before his debate performance - opinion

In four months, the US presidential election will be held between incumbent President Joe Biden and former resident Donald Trump. Despite the war in Gaza and the approaching confrontation with Hezbollah in the North, Israel is closely following these elections, mainly because the results are expected to have a significant impact on Israel-US relations and American foreign policy in the Middle East.

While Trump’s foreign policy towards Israel was extremely sympathetic and supportive, with many claiming that never before did a president so pro-Israel sit in the White House, the last eight months have clearly illustrated that the current administration in Washington does not allow Israel to defeat its enemies.

Whether it is the innocence that prevails in the Biden administration, most of whose senior officials served in the Obama administration, which is known to have been destructive to American and Western interests in the Middle East, or whether it is a systematic action to harm the Israeli government and especially its leader, there is no doubt that the Biden administration will be remembered in Israel as one of the most hostile administrations in the history of the special relationship between Jerusalem and Washington.

Despite the Biden administration’s statements of support for Israel since the terrorist attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, in practice it was a bear hug that prevented Israel from acting as it wished against Hamas.

In addition to the fact that the United States under Biden has become a country where antisemitism is rampant on the streets of major cities, on public transportation, and on university campuses, it is no wonder that the majority of the Israeli public – and many Jews worldwide, who feel that the land of opportunities has become an unsafe place for them – want to see Trump win the elections in November.

Even before 82-year-old Biden’s shocking and embarrassing performance in his first pre-election debate with Trump, mid-June polls clearly showed that the Biden era is about to end on January 20, 2025.

The whole picture

These public opinion polls also consider that there are two other independent contenders for the presidency, as well as one from the Green Party, in addition to Biden and Trump. The other three candidates are indeed hopeless, but their very contest affects the battle between the Democratic candidate and the Republican one.

While each candidate needs 270 electors to win, a total calculation of the safe states for each candidate, where the outcome is typically almost known in advance, shows 215 for Biden and 190 for Trump. However, in nine “swing” states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), which in practice are the ones that decide the outcome of the election, Trump leads by a considerable margin over Biden.

In states where Trump won by a small margin in the 2020 elections, such as Florida and North Carolina, he is expected to win relatively easily this time. Even in states that are considered Republican and where Biden surprisingly won four years ago by a narrow margin – in Arizona by a margin of 0.31% in Georgia by a margin of 0.24% – polls show that Trump leads safely by a margin of 4% and 8%, respectively.

Trump even leads in states where Democrats traditionally win. In Nevada, a state where the Democrats have won consecutively since 2008; in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where, since 1992, the Republicans have won only once (in the 2016 election between Trump and Clinton); and even in Wisconsin, a state where, since 1984, the Republicans have won only once (also in the 2016 election between Trump and Clinton), the battle is close, with Trump leading by a margin of 2-3%. Even in Minnesota, a state the Democrats have won since 1976, the battle is close, with Trump leading by just 1%.

In conclusion, Trump seems to have a clear path back to the White House. If he wins in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, he will need only seven electors to ensure his victory. In this situation, he only needs to win one more state (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Minnesota) to ensure victory in the election. Indeed, in the Jewish state, which now needs a true friend in Washington, fingers are crossed for his victory.

The writer is a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales, UK. His recent book is Israel: National Security and Securitization. (Springer, 2023).