French Jews face a bleak future in a divided country - opinion

France’s current trajectory toward societal fragmentation is the culmination of decades of misguided policies regarding immigration from Muslim-majority countries. This influx, unaccompanied by effective integration and assimilationist measures, has deeply influenced French society.

Today, over 20% of newborns bear Arabic-Muslim names, reflecting a strong assertion of cultural identity. More alarmingly, polls indicate that 28% of Muslims in France envision the country becoming a Muslim state, a sentiment that rises to 50% among the youth – a clear sign of entrenched separatism.

Boosted by the October 7 events that have been catalysts of the Islamists’ global will to conquer the West, the Islamist activists helped by their far-left cohorts were successful in using the Palestinian cause to mobilize Muslim masses and other “left-behinds” of the globalization into a cultural war against liberal democracy and Judeo-Christian Europe.

On the other side of the spectrum, in a kind of mirror to this non-democratic threat, simultaneously, native French citizens, predominantly from the far Right, perceive immigrants as drivers of their economic and cultural marginalization, intensifying societal divisions.

This stark polarization manifested in this past Sunday’s parliament elections, where the far Left secured up to 35% of the seats and the far Right up to 26%, marginalizing President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist factions up to just 31%.

When taken together, the far Right on one side, and the far Left associated with their Islamist factions, pose a formidable challenge to France’s democratic fabric, arriving together at some 70% of the votes and 60% of the seats. This situation has led to the emergence of two distinct Frances that do not understand each other, do not mix, and oppose each other.

Historically, two governance models emerge for managing divergent populations: imperial suppression or republican integration. Fearing the global, rampant, Islamization taking place all over Europe; and facing personal, economic, and cultural insecurity because of it, many native French citizens are appealing to far-right governance that recalls the imperial model. In this scenario, an authoritarian central power prevents different populations from conflicting.

France, grappling with internal strife reminiscent of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions, faces a critical crossroads. The Lebanese model, once touted as a beacon of multi-ethnic harmony, disintegrated into a devastating civil war – a cautionary tale France risks repeating.

Post-election scenarios are bleak

POST-ELECTION scenarios paint a bleak picture, particularly concerning for Jews and Israel. Macron’s pursuit of stopping the non-democratic far Right at any cost, even aligning with the non-democratic far Left, underscores the political landscape’s volatility.

A potential coalition between Macron’s centrists and the far-left, anti-Zionist La France Insoumise could lead to profound implications. This coalition might endorse a pro-Palestinian stance, advocate for Palestinian state recognition, condemn Israel for war crimes, and institute anti-Israeli measures such as the boycott of Israel at the Eurosatory exhibition – the most significant victory for BDS in the West.

This will exacerbate societal divisions and isolate the Jewish community. In his pursuit of political survival, Macron, swayed by numbers, may be tempted to join the Islamic-leftist alliance, potentially jeopardizing the security and dignity of French Jews.

Economically, such a coalition faces daunting challenges, with unsustainable spending and looming deficits threatening stability. Political gridlock and social unrest could precipitate France’s descent into chaos, echoing Lebanon’s tragic trajectory.

In this volatile landscape, French Jews find themselves increasingly vulnerable, caught amid escalating societal tensions. France’s future now teeters between upholding its foundational values or succumbing to irreversible fragmentation. Macron’s ominous warnings about potential civil conflict underscore the gravity of the current situation.

The writer, senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), coordinates the institute’s activities in Europe.