Bibi, it’s time! - opinion

The Labour party gained an absolute majority in Parliament in last week’s UK elections, bringing an end to 14 years of Conservative rule. This result follows a certain pattern: prior to the Tories taking power, the Labour government of Tony Blair and his successors governed the UK for 13 years.

A similar pattern exists in Australia, where Liberal and Labour governments have, with some exceptions, tended to govern for two to three terms before being defeated.

The reasons for a party falling from power are fourfold. Three of these factors relate to the axiom in politics that sitting governments lose elections more than opposition parties win them.

First, when a party is in power for a long period, a combination of arrogance and fatigue sets in, often making the government complacent and stale.

Second, voters will always punish the incumbent government when the economy is struggling. In economically turbulent countries like Spain, Portugal, and Greece, governments have often been restricted to single terms. Conversely, Bill Clinton was reelected in 1996 despite the Monica Lewinsky scandal because of “the economy, stupid!”

Third, politics is rife with scandals, inappropriate behavior, corruption, and incompetence, and these factors will always contribute to election results.

The above three factors no doubt contributed to the collapse of support for the Tories in the UK.

Additionally, opposition parties are sometimes able to offer a vision of change and reform that can inspire an electorate that is not dissatisfied with the status quo but nonetheless prepared to embrace a new vision.

Supporting democratic institutions

John Howard of the center-right Liberal Party was undoubtedly one of Australia’s most successful prime ministers. Serving between 1996 and 2007, he presided over a decade of prosperity and stability. Yet in 2007, a young, invigorated Kevin Rudd ascended to Labour leadership and led his party to a resounding victory.

I offer the examples of the UK and Australia as I am most familiar with them. In other countries with a strong tradition of support for democratic institutions, there are similar trends.

The United States is different since the executive office of the president is elected separately from the legislature. Unlike in the UK and Australia, the president cannot be replaced as a leader by his party. Moreover, the president of the US is limited to two terms.

Other countries that have experienced turbulence have seen the ruling party veer toward autocracy by implementing measures to stifle dissent. The two classic examples are Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey and Vladimir Putin in Russia. The latter has actually succeeded in ruthlessly transforming Russia into a dictatorship, and the former would do the same if he could.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit democracy index, the strength of Israel’s democracy fell six places between 2021 and 2022, leaving Israel in 29th place. (The Scandinavian countries, together with Iceland, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada make up the top 10.)

That Bibi Netanyahu has presided over a coalition government for the majority of the last three decades makes Israel an outlier.

Netanyahu has an ability to navigate, manipulate, and maneuver his way through the rough and tumble of Israel’s electoral system. His skill at dominating the Likud party and sidelining any potential challenger is also a factor in his staying power. That Gideon Sa’ar left Likud, and that Naftali Bennett, who was once Netanyahu’s adviser, never joined Likud are both testament to his ruthless control of his party.

Sadly, Israel’s political landscape has become less connected to policies and more attributable to personalities and who can be seen as the leader best qualified to manage Israel’s security, the Palestinian question, and Israel’s standing on the world stage.

A common refrain I would hear during the five elections held in Israel since 2017 was that people would hold their noses and continue to vote for Netanyahu, despite the media’s incessant Bibi-bashing and the criminal cases launched against him.

Israel’s electoral system allows for members of the Knesset to be elected from national party lists. This is in contrast to what occurs in the UK, Australia, and the Congress and Senate in the US, where candidates are elected by constituency. Voting by constituency tends to favor candidates from the major parties.

During the 1980s and 1990s, Israel experienced major economic turbulence. The two major parties of the time, Labour and Likud, lasted only single terms in government. Those years were replete with hyperinflation and economic strikes.

Netanyahu’s economic policies and Israel’s emergence as a regional economic powerhouse removed a major factor leading to electoral dissatisfaction. Indeed, it is astonishing how the state of the economy barely rated as an issue in the five recently held elections.

Bibi’s decades-long reputation as Mr. Security also enabled him to overcome the stench of corruption, but the events of October 7 have shattered this perception.

Drums are beating on the streets calling for elections even while Israel is at war. Bibi Netanyahu does not project the same aura he did in times gone by. He looks fatigued, and his Likud party appears weak. Likud is struggling to accommodate its coalition partners, which are promoting their own sectoral interests even at the expense of the national interest.

Netanyahu may survive till the next elections are due. By then, the war will hopefully be over. But the full reverberations of the war’s cost, especially in terms of the deterioration of the economy, will be felt nationwide.

More importantly, the soul of the nation will need repair. The nation will eagerly wait to see who will emerge to offer a new vision. I expect to see a slogan similar to that deployed in Australia’s election in 1972, when a long-term Liberal government was voted out: “It’s time!”

Romy Leibler is a former prominent business and communal leader in Australia now residing in Jerusalem, Israel.