Poll numbers in US show Israeli Jews are deterred by White House Middle East approach - editorial

Former president Donald Trump has been enjoying an outpouring of support and positivity in the United States since his assassination attempt less than a week ago. He has also become a national hero, celebrating his strength at the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin. At the same time, while President Joe Biden is losing support among his party members, a similar shift in Israel has already occurred:

A survey published on Wednesday by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) found that most Jewish Israelis prefer Trump over Biden in the upcoming presidential election. The July 2024 Israeli Society Index revealed that 51% of Jewish Israelis favored Trump, compared to 35% who supported Biden and 14% who were undecided.

This preference was reflected in the broader context of Israeli opinions on the current US administration’s support for Israel. The survey indicated that a significant portion of Israelis believed Biden’s support for Israel had waned since the onset of the ongoing conflict. While 34% of Jewish Israelis acknowledged that Biden strongly supported Israel at the beginning of the war and continued to do so, there was a pervasive sentiment that his support had diminished.

Among voters of the coalition parties, Trump’s support was overwhelmingly strong. A staggering 82% of Likud voters, 94% of Shas voters, and 87% of Religious-Zionist voters expressed their preference for the former president. In contrast, centrist and left-leaning Israelis presented a more balanced view, with many still favoring Biden.

This divide in preference underscored broader concerns about Israel’s security and foreign policy. The JPPI survey also revealed profound disillusionment with Israel’s leadership, with only 26% expressing confidence in the government and a mere 27% in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This declining trust in domestic leadership likely influenced Israelis to look outward, favoring a US leader perceived as more supportive of Israeli interests.

Trump’s appeal among Israelis can be attributed to several factors. His administration was perceived as highly supportive of Israel, with significant actions such as the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries.

Israel's needs from the next US President

Moreover, the ongoing conflict and heightened security concerns have made the Israeli public more sensitive to international support. With dwindling trust in their leadership, Israelis may prioritize a US president who they believe would unequivocally back Israel in times of crisis.

The political and ideological alignment between Trump and Israel’s right-wing factions further solidifies his appeal among these voters. The preference for Trump suggests a broader desire for strong, clear, and supportive international partnerships as Israel navigates its internal and external challenges.

Jerusalem Post senior contributing editor and analyst Herb Keinon pointed out that a Midgam poll in mid-December found that 41% of 503 Jewish Israeli respondents preferred Biden when asked who they wanted to win the next US election, while only 26% favored Trump. A JPPI poll taken in the second week of the war found that 56% of Israeli Jews felt that Biden was better for Israel than Trump, with only 22% expressing the opposite view.

These findings represent a phenomenal shift in Israeli public opinion toward Biden and away from Trump. Keinon highlighted that before the 2020 US elections, an Israel Democracy Institute Poll found that 70% of Israeli Jews favored Trump, with only 13% supporting Biden. Even as recently as July 2023, a Channel 12 poll indicated that 44% of Israelis preferred Trump for the 2025 presidency, compared to 30% for Biden.

The current numbers reveal a starker preference for Trump, indicative of several broader trends. Many Israelis see Trump as a more reliable ally in times of conflict. His strong rhetoric and actions during his presidency left a lasting impression that aligns with the sentiments of many Israelis who prioritize security and decisive leadership.

Moreover, this shift reflects growing disenchantment with the current US administration’s approach to the Middle East. Internally, as trust in our leaders wanes, Israelis, especially those on the political right, may be projecting their hopes for strong leadership onto Trump. Finally, the million dollar question is actually how American Jews will vote, since historically, about 70% vote every year for the Democratic candidate.