Under Trump, Soleimani was eliminated. Another 4 years will see Iran weak again - opinion

If we examine Iran’s situation through the lens of security analysis, terrifying points emerge. The chaotic regime of the Shia mullahs, aided by Marxist and Islamic terrorist groups allied with the former Soviet Union, seized power during the bleak winter of 1979. Those involved in the 1979 revolt, who were anti-Shah and traitorous, paid little attention to democracy or freedom. Instead, they admired figures such as Enver Hoxha in Albania, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Fidel Castro in Cuba, and groups in Algeria, the Soviet Union, and others.

In advance of the CIA, Israel’s Mossad recognized the severity of the situation, foreseeing that the destructive ideology of Khomeinism would transform the region. 

The late shah, from the day he left Iran forever on January 16, 1979, until his death on July 27, 1980, believed that the CIA and president Jimmy Carter had betrayed him and struck a deal with Khomeini. A patriot, the shah grasped the essence of Islamic terrorism more profoundly than any other world leader. He fervently voiced his concerns, yet, regrettably, his warnings fell on deaf ears.

The shah’s presence in Iran was like that of a pillar under a building; when he peacefully stepped aside, the entire political and security architecture of the Middle East collapsed, and regional equations turned into chaos. The Islamic caliphate of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist), a dark religious dictatorship, took shape in Iran, dragging the country back to the 7th century and acquainting the 20th century with the crimes of Islamic terrorism.

Perhaps between the hostage crisis and illegal occupation of the US embassy (November 4, 1979-January 20, 1981) and the explosion of the US embassy in Beirut (April 18, 1983), Carter, with his populism and ineffectiveness, turned a blind eye to the rise of religious radicalism, theocracy, and Islamic terrorism and the terrifying destructive concept of Khomeinism. 

Ronald Reagan, during his presidency (1981 –1989) – angered by the betrayal of the late, pro-American shah and the rise of a savage, bloodthirsty mullah – tried to control Khomeini. 

THEN-CIA DIRECTOR William Casey (1981 –1987) helped the most important and credible Iranian opposition figure, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the late shah, but it was too late. Progressively, as the Cold War drew to a close, the Khomeini regime sought refuge with Russia. Meanwhile, Iran and the Middle East became hostages to the criminal machinations of the cunning ayatollahs.

In the decade between the collapse of the Soviet Union on December 26, 1991, and September 11, 2001, Iranian mullahs intensified their efforts in spreading Islamic terrorism and expanding the Shia Crescent through various terrorist groups. Then-president Bill Clinton placed his trust in the so-called “reformists” (supporters of the Khomeini regime), unaware that they dominated the Iranian Intelligence Ministry (MOIS) and that there was no substantial difference between hard-liners and reformists regarding Islamic terrorism. In a theocracy, the pursuit of democracy or civilization is nonexistent. Instead, the landscape is marred by explosions, brutality, and death.

During the George W. Bush administration, the war against Islamic terrorism commenced. Bush, rightly categorizing Iran under the mullahs’ dictatorship as part of the “axis of evil,” recognized the crucial need to defend democracy in the Middle East, guided by great advisers such as Condoleezza Rice. 

Despite warnings from Israel, a significant error occurred when the CIA sought Iran’s assistance amid the destabilization of Iraq and Afghanistan. This grave misstep effectively delivered both nations into the hands of the mullahs. 

Former CIA director Gen. David H. Petraeus foresaw that the escalation of Islamic terrorism would further disrupt stability and peace in these countries – a prediction that regrettably came to pass.

During the Barack Obama and later Joe Biden administrations, the terror cells of the Islamic Republic alarmingly expanded beyond Iran, influencing charitable organizations, educational institutions, Persian media in the US, and religious centers. This era saw what appeared to be a union between global leftists (Democrats and similar groups) and Islamic leftists (reformists) alongside Marxist-Communists. The Middle East continued to simmer like a boiling pot. The presence of Iranian Republic terrorist cells was noted not just in the northern hemisphere, but also on American soil, attracting significant attention from the US intelligence community.

During former president Donald Trump’s first term, a pivotal moment occurred with the elimination of Qasem Soleimani, a key terrorist figure. This action, coupled with the efforts of the CIA and counterterrorism expert Gina Haspel significantly curtailed Iran’s capabilities. The mullahs were forced to retreat. Under Trump’s firm policies, the Iranian populace came to recognize the superficial nature of the mullahs’ authority.

Iran through Obama and Biden presidencies 

REGRETTABLY, DURING the Obama and Biden administrations, the Islamic Republic reinvigorated its cycle of fire and terror. It aligned with Russia in the conflict in Ukraine and played a crucial role in the terrorist attacks in Gaza against Israel, instigating actions from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Popular Mobilization Forces. The Islamic Republic fears Trump’s possible return. 

Trump knows that the Islamic Republic does not represent the people of Iran. They have only one popular, legitimate, and trustworthy representative and that is Prince Reza Pahlavi, who believes in friendship with Israel, the United States, and the West. Some of Trump’s advisers have met with the prince in Washington. Perhaps Trump and the CIA will support regime change in Tehran. Although the Islamic Republic has repeatedly called for Trump’s execution and death on television, this issue was not taken seriously during Biden’s tenure. 

Rather, Biden paid attention to the mullahs’ superstitions. On May 2, 2022, during President Joe Biden’s speech at a reception celebrating eid al-fitr. he remarked, “I didn’t understand the concept of the ‘hidden imam’... so I sought guidance and enlisted the expertise of a distinguished Islamic studies professor to collaborate with me.” The hidden imam is a theological notion within Shia Islam and does not possess an external, tangible presence, being a construct tied to Shia religious history. [The hidden imam is believed to have been born but disappeared, and will remain hidden until he reappears to bring justice to the world at the end of time, a doctrine known as “the occultation.”] The Islamic caliphate regime claims to be sustaining the authority of the hidden imam until an alleged reappearance. Tragically, advocates of Khomeini, such as the terrorists of Fadā’iyān-e Islam, brutally targeted intellectuals like Ahmad Kasravi who dared to label this contemporary imam as counterfeit (March 11, 1946).

Trump might, with the help of the CIA, realize that the mullahs commit murder based on these superstitions – and not repeat Carter’s 1979 mistake in sanctifying a savage mullah as a divine representative on Earth.  

The flawed cycle of Washington-Tehran relations after 1979 must change if the world in the 21st century seeks stability and peace.

The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.