Trump's nomination and Israeli preferences: Navigating the perils of political alignment - opinion

The Republican party, at its Milwaukee convention, has elected, unsurprisingly, former president Donald Trump as its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. He led in the polls against President Joe Biden, before the president pulled out of the race. The picture of the American flag fluttering in the background, as a bloody-faced Trump raises a fist in defiance and calls on his supporters to fight on, has greatly improved his chances of being the victor come November.

In Israel, Trump has been the preferred candidate from the beginning of the American electoral campaign. A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 44% of Israelis would prefer Donald Trump in the White House compared to 32% who would like to see Joe Biden elected to a second term. Given Trump’s strong record on Israel during his presidency (2016–2020) and the tensions with Biden’s administration during the Gaza war, this is probably not surprising.”

The Israeli electorate is much more conservative than the American. “Make America Great Again” is a slogan that pro-Americans in Israel (most Israelis) easily identify with. Indeed, nationalism still holds significant appeal even among the Israeli Left. The demonstrators against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proudly carry Israeli flags. In contrast to Americans, Israelis are more comfortable with the use of force – a policy associated with conservative preferences in America.

Finally, Trump is perceived as a great friend of the Jewish state due to his notably close relationship with Israel during his presidency. His Middle East policies were generally viewed as pro-Israel. Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in December 2017 and moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018, despite controversy and international criticism.

Under Trump’s presidency, the United States played a key role in brokering the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. These agreements marked a significant shift in regional diplomacy. Trump’s administration was seen as strongly supportive of Israel’s right to defend itself and even recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

The 2020 Trump Peace Plan for Israel and the Palestinians, labeled “The Deal of the Century,” considered many of Israel’s vital interests. Finally, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal (the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) in 2018, a move supported by Israel, which had opposed the agreement due to concerns over loopholes in the document and Iran’s regional activities and nuclear ambitions.

It may be tempting for the Israeli government to tilt toward the Republican party, as it has occasionally done since the days of Yitzhak Rabin as ambassador in Washington, particularly considering the difficulties currently faced by the Democratic campaign. Yet, this would be a careless move for several reasons.

Knesset should not tilt toward Republican party

First, Israel must aim to secure bipartisan support and refrain from being identified with one of the parties in the American political system as the two parties alternate in holding power. There is no reason to estrange the many Democrats who support Israel. Recent congressional voting patterns indicate that the center of this party is still very supportive of Israel.

Second, even after President Biden pulled out of the race, there is a possibility, albeit a slim one, for the Democratic party to recover, and regain the presidency. While a Trump victory seems probable, it is not a foregone conclusion.

Finally, a bipartisan orientation is also valuable for maintaining a strong relationship with American Jewry. Although growing numbers of disappointed American Jews are moving away from their historic preference for voting Democratic, the majority of them still do not vote primarily according to economic concerns. Israel should give up courting the more assimilated and radical segments of the Jewish community but try to embrace all others.

Presidential elections are important for Israel, as presidents are increasingly becoming the major force in foreign affairs. The president’s power over foreign affairs and national security has been steadily increasing for decades at the expense of Congress. This trend necessitates caution and the avoidance of any impression that Jerusalem might intervene in US presidential elections.

Israel should also remember that Trump is, in many ways, an isolationist and can behave in unpredictable ways. He has expressed several times his displeasure with Netanyahu for congratulating Biden on his 2020 election victory. If elected, Trump and his vice president could become strong allies of Israel, but in democratic politics, nothing is preordained. Prudence – the conservative instinct – should guide Israel’s foreign policy.

The writer is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and chair of the Department of Strategy, Diplomacy, and Security at the Shalem College.