Why Israel should embrace the US-Saudi deal and pursue a two-state solution - opinion

The events of October 7 in the “Gaza encirclement” alongside the American-Saudi desire to establish a closer military and economic alliance, in cooperation with Israel, give rise to the opportunity for a significant change in reality through a multi-stage, multi-disciplinary and multi-year political process that must begin now. A process that will establish a permanent settlement between Israel and the Palestinians and will provide stability to the region by neutralizing the influence of Iran and its proxies.

That’s exactly why Israel needs such a deal – especially a viable path to a two-state model – in order to secure its own security, economy, and international standing.

Two visions

The vision of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is one of a Jewish ethnocracy that seeks to entrench Jewish supremacy throughout the whole Land of Israel under the ideology of “a nation dwelling alone.” Bennett promises that “the world will get used to it.” They sought to implement this nationalist and messianic vision through the “Calming Plan” launched by Bennett in 2012, which called for the annexation of Area C, which is under Israeli military and civilian control; former president Donald Trump’s ridiculous “peace initiative” in 2020, which was concocted by Netanyahu; and, above all, Smotrich’s “Decisive Plan,” published in 2017.

In just a decade, this vision has led Israel toward the status of a global pariah, severely damaging the capability and standing of the IDF, destroying the Israel Police, gravely damaging the judicial system, and fostering social polarization that has led the country on a slippery slope toward civil war.

The vision has damaged Israel’s relations with the US, jeopardized its peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, impaired the economy, inspired stronger populations to leave the country, and brought soaring institutionalized corruption. Around the world, it has led to a rise in antisemitic and anti-Israeli sentiments and alienated world Jewry from Israel; at home, it has led to the abandonment of the values of solidarity that once characterized Israeli society.

Accordingly, Israel must now readopt and accept the Zionist vision of the founding fathers – a vision of a democracy with a Jewish majority living in security as a member of the family of nations. To this end, a new leadership is needed that embraces this vision loudly and clearly and does everything possible to implement it.

The way forward

Reforms are needed in many areas, but the events of October 7 appear to have reaffirmed the central importance of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict has raged for over a century, and its resolution can create a better and more comfortable reality in which Israel will be able to address its problems in the fields of law, education, health, welfare, and the environment. Despite the volatile mood in Israeli and Palestinian society following the October 7 massacre and the devastation of the Gaza Strip, it is vital to present a plan to implement an egalitarian Zionist vision.

US President Joe Biden’s plan for the Middle East comprises three key and interrelated components. The first is a regional alignment to confront Iran and its proxies, including a broad security treaty with Saudi Arabia. This move serves Israel’s security interests. In return, Israel will be required to agree to move forward toward a Palestinian state, a move that is expected to remove the foundation for Iranian and other interference in the region. 

The second is normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, thereby opening the Arab world to the Israeli economy. The third includes preparatory and complementary steps for this plan: ending the fighting in Gaza and in the north of Israel and freeing the hostages, as part of a stable ceasefire.

Israel must integrate itself into this deal as soon as possible, and to this end early elections must be held, in the hope that the results will usher in a new leadership. The US-Saudi agreement – which Israel and the Palestinians will later be able to join – should include an Israeli-Palestinian “package” based on a genuine and practical commitment to resolving the conflict within the foreseeable future based on the two-state model.

A package for peace

The Israeli-Palestinian package I’m proposing would help overcome this impasse through two stages. The first is a binding declaration. Israel must announce its commitment to the two-state solution. The declaration by a new government must include a sentence included in the agreements Netanyahu signed (the Hebron Protocol and the Wye Memorandum) mentioning UN Resolutions 242 and 338 and should add that the plan will meet the parameters agreed to during the preceding rounds of negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians must ensure that they can present a single, legitimate, and binding leadership for the Palestinian people. This requires the agreement of Fatah and Hamas to hold elections to the Palestinian parliament, the presidency, and the PLO Palestinian National Council, as well as the dismantling of the armed wing of Hamas (“one authority, one weapon,” as Jibril Rajoub declared). All candidates in the election should recognize Israel and the agreements signed with it.

The second step, conditional on the success of the first, includes confidence- and state-building actions. Israel must present and implement a realistic plan for Palestinian contiguity along the central mountain ridge, as formulated by former prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert in the expanded Disengagement Plan in 2004 and the Realignment Plan in 2006. This formula is based on the evacuation of isolated settlements along Route 60, which connects the main Palestinian cities in the West Bank and creates territorial contiguity.

Israel will revive the Safe Passage mechanism, preferably by means of a railroad line, as planned prior to the disengagement from Gaza in 2005. This line will connect Gaza to Tarqumiya based on the Ashkelon-Kiryat Gat line. These steps will ensure that later, during the negotiations for a permanent agreement, the Palestinians will enjoy territorial contiguity.

The Palestinians will undertake to deploy police stations to enforce law and order and to demonstrate governance in all the areas under their responsibility. In addition, and as required, the PA will deploy its forces in the Gaza Strip, accompanied by a pan-Arab force during the initial stage, and will resume security coordination with Israel in Gaza, as elsewhere.

In the economic sphere, Israel must commit to the regular and unconditional transfer of the tax revenue it collected for the Palestinian Authority. Israel and the Palestinian Authority will update the Paris Protocol, including the development of an independent clearing system for the PA.

After implementing this “package,” Israel will continue to hold security authority in the West Bank. It will benefit from coordination with the Palestinian police both in the West Bank and in Gaza, and it will hold the Jordan Valley. It will be able to rebuild its relations with Jordan and Egypt, as well as with the international community – and the US, in particular. The Palestinians will enjoy territorial contiguity, enabling them to implement development plans and enforce law and order.

The PA will become a legitimate body for pursuing negotiations with Israel and the international community, and Palestinians will benefit from an improved economy and enhanced security control between the West Bank and Gaza. This reality will provide stability and allow both sides to move on to the next stage.

Alongside implementation of the package, America, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will take initial steps toward normalization and the formation of a regional alliance to confront all those liable to spoil the process, above all Iran and its proxies.

This two-stage Israeli-Palestinian package will implement the goals of US. Washington must not agree to a narrower package, since this will only perpetuate the current bloody reality and reward the messianic and fundamentalist forces on both sides, thereby damaging its own interests in the Middle East.

Subsequent steps

In the next stage, the parties should move toward the gradual resolution of the conflict through permanent agreements. Subject to the successful implementation of the package, three negotiation channels will be opened to discuss permanent arrangements. The first, between Israel and Palestine under American and Arab mediation, will focus on the four core issues: borders, security, Jerusalem, and the refugees, based on the parameters adopted at Annapolis in 2008.

The second, between Israel and the Arab world, will be based on the Arab League’s Peace Initiative and will focus mainly on steps toward normalization and an expanded regional alliance to counter Iran and its proxies. The third, between Israel, Palestine, and the international community, will discuss economic and security arrangements, the mechanism for the refugee issue, military aid, and other issues. For each of these channels, a timescale will be determined for parallel implementation, whereby each channel will be dependent on the others.After signing all the agreements in all three channels, parallel and conditional implementation will begin along a common timeline.

The formulation and implementation of this plan could take several years. However, the parties must recognize that this is the only way to prevent a grave escalation and to offer renewed hope to both peoples. The current opportunity for peace has come at the price of the loss of tens of thousands of Palestinian lives, many hundreds of Israeli lives, the destruction of the Gaza Strip, and the evacuation of Israeli communities in the Western Negev and the North.

Accordingly, it is an opportunity that both sides should seize. The great challenge facing both Israeli and Palestinian society is to choose leadership worthy of leading the two peoples to a future that will be different from the reality they have experienced for the past one hundred years.

The writer, a retired IDF colonel, researches the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.