Bangladesh at a crossroads as a result of political instability and the rise of Islamism - opinion

In a dramatic turn of events, Bangladesh finds itself in a period of political uncertainty, following the ousting of prime minister Sheikh Hasina. After weeks of violent student protests against the controversial quota system for government jobs, Hasina was evacuated from her residence in Dhaka as crowds stormed the prime minister’s residence.

The subsequent announcement by army chief Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman of an interim government has plunged the nation into a precarious situation, threatening to undo years of economic progress and potentially push the country towards a more Islamist future.

The fall of Hasina’s government marks the end of a 16-year rule that saw Bangladesh make significant strides in economic development and poverty reduction. Under her leadership, the country achieved remarkable economic growth, with GDP per capita surpassing that of neighboring India in recent years. However, this progress came at a considerable cost to democratic freedoms and institutional integrity.

Hasina’s tenure was marred by increasing authoritarianism, with her government exerting undue influence over the judiciary, law enforcement, and the election commission. The suppression of dissent became a hallmark of her rule, epitomized by the use of the Digital Security Act to silence critics, journalists, and activists. 

THE MAIN opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), formed in 1978 by Major General Ziaur Rahman and currently led by his wife Khaleda Zia, bore the brunt of Hasina’s crackdown. Through legal challenges, arrests of key leaders, and restrictions on political activities, the BNP was systematically weakened. The party claims that over 20,000 of its members have been jailed in recent months alone, highlighting the extent of political repression in the country.

Now, as Bangladesh faces a power vacuum, the country stands at a critical juncture. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus faces the daunting task of rebuilding a stable political system. The most immediate concern is the potential rise of Islamist groups to power. The BNP, despite its weakened state, sees itself as the natural successor to Hasina’s Awami League. However, the BNP’s history of aligning with Islamist parties, particularly the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, raises serious concerns about the future direction of the country.

The Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJeI) with its grassroots organization and goal of Islamizing the country, presents a particular threat to Bangladesh’s secular character. The party’s colaborationist role during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War – in which members of the Pakistani military and Razakar paramilitary participated in a systematic campaign of genocidal rape against 200,000-400,000, mostly Hindu, Bengali women and girls – remains a contentious issue. Yet, despite this dark history, there is a real possibility that an Islamist-led coalition could win an election if held in the current climate.

This potential shift towards Islamism is not without precedent in the history of Bangladesh. All leaders in Bangladesh, to varying degrees, have used religion as a political tool, often to consolidate power or appease certain segments of the population. Pragmatic intertwining of religion and politics has gradually eroded the country’s secular foundations, particularly with the BNP’s efforts in the past to fuse Islam with Bangladeshi nationalism. 

Even Sheikh Hasina, despite her Awami League’s historically secular stance, made concessions to religious sentiments and approved a bill to retain Islam as the state religion.

With the military returning to power, it is crucial to recognize that during periods of military rule between 1975 and 1990, Bangladesh experienced significant Islamization and strengthened ties with Gulf states, which heavily financed the construction of new mosques and madrasas to expand the presence of Islam.

Maj. Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the country’s first military dictator, reversed Bangladesh’s secular orientation by amending its constitution in 1977 to remove references to secularism in favor of “absolute trust and faith in the Almighty Allah”; and the second military dictator, Gen. Hossain Mohammad Ershad declared Islam the state religion. 

The implications of such a shift would be far-reaching, both domestically and internationally. 

DOMESTICALLY, RELIGIOUS minorities, particularly Hindus, face the greatest threat. The BNP-Jamaat coalition’s previous stint in power saw widespread and systematic attacks on Hindu communities, especially in southwestern Bangladesh. 

After winning the 2001 general election for example, supporters of the BNP and its Islamist allies targeted Hindus to destroy their economic resources, terrorize them into fleeing to India, and seize their properties. It was also during the BNP’s tenure that the country saw widespread Islamic extremism and a lack of willingness to act to oppose it.

Recent attacks on Hindu temples such as the ISKCON temple in Meherpur and a Kali temple, on several businesses, and on politicians in the wake of the current crisis highlight the ongoing vulnerability of these communities. These attacks are part of a broader, deeply concerning trend that has seen the Hindu population in Bangladesh steadily decline over the decades.

In 1951, Hindus constituted 22 percent of the country’s population and today it is a mere 7.95%, or approximately 13 million people. This dramatic demographic shift underscores the persistent challenges and threats faced by the Hindu community in Bangladesh.

Internationally, a shift towards Islamism could dramatically alter Bangladesh’s foreign relations. The BNP-Jamaat government’s previous tenure was marked by open support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, along with hostile rhetoric towards Israel and the United States. 

The government during the 2001-2006 period went so far as to name a bridge “Hezbollah” as a mark of honor, aligning Bangladesh with the Lebanese terrorist group.

Then-foreign minister Morshed Khan labeled Israel’s actions as “state terrorism” while accusing the US of sponsoring these actions. Any hopes of normalizing relations with Israel would be dashed under an Islamist-led government, and Bangladesh could find itself aligning more closely with the narrative of the Muslim Brotherhood. 

This shift would not only impact regional dynamics but could also represent a strategic loss for the US in the subcontinent, as the current government might seek to rebalance its relations with India and, to leverage this, may draw closer to China.

THE BIDEN administration’s hostility towards Hasina’s government, coupled with its willingness to engage with ultra-Islamist parties who are anti-American, demonstrates a profound misunderstanding of the complex political landscape in Bangladesh. By failing to adopt a pragmatic approach, and instead seeming to promote groups historically hostile to Western interests, the US has potentially contributed to the current instability.

As Bangladesh navigates this turbulent period, the role of the military will be crucial. The army’s experience in running the country has given it some understanding that being at the forefront of politics can come at a significant cost to its public standing. 

A four-way power struggle

The country now faces a four-way power struggle between the military, the BNP, right-wing Islamists, and student leaders. The international community, particularly the US, must reassess its approach to Bangladesh, recognizing the complexities of its political landscape and the potential consequences of a shift towards Islamism. While facing these challenges, the interim government must prioritize the protection of minorities who are increasingly targeted by the bloodthirsty Islamists; the preservation of democratic institutions; and the promotion of inclusive economic growth. 

Only by addressing these core issues can Bangladesh hope to emerge from this crisis as a stable, prosperous, and truly democratic nation – or, as Rabindranath Tagore described it, Sonar Bangla (“Golden Bengal”).

The writer is a researcher specializing in studying terrorism in South Asia, with dual master’s degrees in international relations and history. He co-founded The Honest Critique, an independent media channel, and reports on the developments of the Af-Pak region for Indian newspapers; and is the author of the forthcoming book The Evolution of Israel’s National Security Doctrine: A Journey from Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu.