Tehran’s African pivot: A game-changer in the covert war with Israel - opinion

This week, in an audacious, high-stakes operation reminiscent of a James Bond thriller, Israel struck Hezbollah—Iran’s most notorious proxy—by remotely detonating hundreds of electronic devices used by the group’s officials. 

The bold move adds yet another chapter to the ongoing covert war between Israel and Iran, a conflict that Israel has primarily fought alone. 

 However, the theater of this struggle is evolving, with Iran now extending its reach into Africa, which could prove a game-changing escalation in this long-standing conflict.

 Iran’s pivot to Africa signals a broader, more ambitious strategy that goes beyond its immediate neighbors. While the implications are dire for the region, this shift has global consequences, affecting stability, security, and the international economy. 

 Just four years ago, Iran’s grip on power seemed fragile. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran's economy was "crippled under the weight of sanctions and isolation, with high inflation and a plummeting currency exacerbating the country’s internal struggles." The Trump administration's sanctions "cut off Iran from the global financial system," making it difficult for the regime to fund its regional ambitions. With domestic unrest on the rise, Iran seemed more inclined to avoid external escalation. Yet, with the Biden administration’s reversal of Trump-era sanctions in 2021, Iran’s fortunes changed. 

 By 2022, its economy had recovered enough to reinvigorate its proxy wars against Israel and the West. This newfound economic breathing room has allowed Iran to shift resources into building alliances across Africa. Of particular concern is Iran’s growing partnership with Sudan. Sudan’s strategic location, on the western shore of the Red Sea, gives Tehran a critical foothold to pair with its influence in Yemen through the Houthi rebels. 

 Control over both shores of the Red Sea gives Iran the potential to disrupt maritime traffic, including the vital Suez Canal, through which 15% of global trade flows. This enhanced reach also offers Iran leverage to destabilize international trade and blackmail Western economies. The growing Iran-Sudan alliance, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), presents a new layer of risk. 

The IRGC has strengthened ties with General Al-Burhan, Sudan’s military leader, providing military assistance, drones, and advanced equipment in exchange for establishing a naval base in Port Sudan. This base would allow Iran to project its power across the Red Sea, posing a direct threat to Israel and the West.

Sudan is not Iran’s only African target

 But Sudan is not Iran’s only African target. By forging partnerships with countries like Mali, Nigeria, and potentially South Africa, Iran gains access to critical resources and strategic alliances. Hezbollah, Iran’s well-oiled proxy in the region, has entrenched itself in countries such as Guinea, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where it operates illicit networks that include money laundering and smuggling. 

 These financial lifelines support Iran’s broader goal of destabilizing Western interests, particularly in Africa, where Western personnel and assets are increasingly vulnerable. The Biden administration’s failure to curb Iran’s expansionist agenda has only emboldened Tehran.

To counter this threat, the US must pivot to a more aggressive stance, starting by reinforcing the Abraham Accords framework, which has successfully brought Israel and Arab nations closer in countering Iran’s influence. 

Furthermore, the Trump-era sanctions must be reinstated—not just against Iran but also against nations and entities doing business with the regime. Equally crucial is holding Iran’s key players accountable. The IRGC, which continues to engage in terrorism and assassinations, must face international legal consequences. 

The next US president should work with Congress to pass legislation targeting groups like  Hezbollah and the IRGC, freezing their assets, blocking their financial channels, and banning travel for their leaders and families. This would significantly hinder their operations and limit their ability to expand influence. 

Iran’s new African front is a clear signal that the global chessboard is changing. US policy must adjust quickly to this reality or face greater instability in both the Middle East and Africa. 

The stakes are higher than ever, and inaction is not an option. 

Niger Innis is the chairman of the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE). Niger is co-chairman of the Affordable Power Alliance. He is the co-founder of the New America organization. He is also a frequent television and radio commentator, having appeared on CNN, CNBC, NPR, Fox News Channel, MSNBC, and BBC.