In an incredibly close race, can the Jewish vote make a difference? Five takeaways - opinion

A few weeks ahead of the November 5 presidential election, we now have a few relatively high-quality polls of Jewish Americans. The picture coming into focus is of a community that has retained its party commitments, is deeply worried about the future of American democracy, and continues to express high levels of support for Israel and concern about antisemitism. Here are five takeaways:

Despite the quick handoff from Biden to Harris in July, American Jews are likely to vote for the Democratic party nominee in proportions that compare to previous election cycles.  A poll conducted a few days ago by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, has Harris leading Trump 67% to 31% among likely Jewish voters, a margin of 36 points. Polls conducted for the Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) report larger margins.

In a JCDA poll of Jewish voters in seven battleground states conducted in October, Harris led Trump 71% to 26% for a 45-point spread. In a JDCA poll conducted nationwide in September, the spread was an even larger 47 points. 

Which of these polls is more reliable, the JDCA surveys or the survey of the Manhattan Institute? In general, the share of self-identifying Democrats is larger in the JDCA polls, and it more accurately tracks party affiliation among Jewish voters in the benchmark surveys of the Pew Research Center. Additionally, the Manhattan Institute poll included a question about how respondents voted in 2020. The vote for Biden is underestimated compared to most exit poll data from that election cycle. On a balance, I think the JDCA polls will prove more accurate, but we will need to wait for this year’s exit polls to know for sure. 

The voting preferences of Orthodox and non-Orthodox Jews nearly mirror one another as polar opposites. This is a continuation of a trend that intensified during the Trump years, when the share of self-identifying Republicans steadily increased among Orthodox and particularly ultra-Orthodox Jews. In the national JDCA survey, Orthodox voters prefer Trump by a 66-point margin, and Reform and unaffiliated Jews prefer Harris by a 65-point margin. 

The differences in the Manhattan Institute survey are less stark, with Harris up 53 points among Reform respondents and Trump leading by 18 points among the Orthodox. As in Israel, religious and political orientations increasingly converge among American Jews. 

US Jews are deeply concerned about the future of American democracy and abortion rights. These issues top the list of voting priorities across all of these surveys and align with the concerns of most Democratic voters. American Jews are also very worried about antisemitism. A survey sponsored by The Forward newspaper in October (based on a non-random sample) reports that 54% of respondents described antisemitism as “a very serious problem.” 

In the Manhattan Institute survey, respondents in general were equally likely to express concern about growing antisemitism within the Republican and Democratic parties. Notably, while half of Harris supporters expressed concern about growing antisemitism in the Democratic party, just 16% of Trump supporters expressed similar concern about growing antisemitism in the Republican party.

Israel as a high-up voting priority 

Israel is higher up on the list of voting priorities than we ordinarily see. In the JDCA Battleground States poll it ranks fourth, up from ninth in the previous JDCA poll. 

The Manhattan Institute survey asked what two issues are most important, and “security, Israel and antisemitism” were also ranked fourth. The Forward survey took a different approach. Rather than forcing a rank order choice, the survey asked respondents to rate issues on a 10-point scale (10 being most important), allowing respondents to assign importance to however many issues they chose. In that survey, 70% of respondents gave the “Israel-Hamas War” a rating of 8, 9, or 10, making it one of voters’ major priorities in making a presidential choice.

Support for Israel remains high after one year of war between Israel and Hamas. 

The JDCA national poll reports three-quarters of Jewish respondents are emotionally attached to Israel, compared to 25% who are not attached. The Manhattan Institute poll asked a blunter question: “Do you consider yourself a supporter of Israel?” 86% said yes, 5% no, and 9% were not sure. 

However, support for Israel is not the only factor Jewish voters are considering in this election. In the Forward survey, Harris is rated as the candidate “better able to handle the Israel-Hamas war,” but only by a margin of 18 points. The relatively modest margin suggests that some of Harris’ Jewish supporters believe Trump would better manage the war. 

In this incredibly close presidential cycle, can the Jewish vote make a difference? In several swing states, including Pennsylvania, it might. As Brandeis professor Leonard Saxe shows in his analysis, a shift of five percentage points in Jewish voter turnout or presidential choice can tip the election. But one could say the same thing about many voting blocks in this too-close-to-call race. 

Even if the Jewish vote does not swing the election, the polls give a rare snapshot of the priorities of the Jewish public in this historic election year.

The writer is Ruderman Family Foundation chair at the Institute for National Security Studies.