The Jewish vote in swing states may determine the winner in the US elections - opinion

The 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was tight. Kennedy attributed his narrow victory to a particular constituent: “I know I got elected thanks to the Jewish vote,” he told Israeli prime minister David Ben-Gurion. “I owe them my election.”

The 2024 election is also tight, and once again, it is not inconceivable that Jews in Pennsylvania, as well as in other swing states, might be the ones to decide who will be the next president.

Back then, 82% of Jews voted for Kennedy, up from 60% of Jews who voted for Democrat candidate Adlai Stevenson four years earlier, in 1956, according to data compiled by the Jewish Virtual Library. (The overall vote was 47% for Kennedy in 1960 and 40% for Stevenson in 1956). The concentration of those Jewish voters in a few swing states helped Kennedy win the presidency.

Today’s circumstances are in reverse: In 1960, it was about the Democrats acquiring Jewish voters. In 2024, it is about the Democrats retaining Jewish voters.

Nearly 70% of Jews voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Surveys suggest this number is going to be lower in 2024 – it is uncertain to what extent and in which states.

AT THE core of this uncertainty lies the million-dollar question: Will Democratic Jewish voters in 2024 vote based on the issue of Israel?

Jill Smith, a Democratic donor, puts this question in perspective: “Other than the ultra-Orthodox, most Jews are not single-issue voters.”

Smith, who is a member of the Genesis Prize Committee, stresses that American Jews are concerned with issues that affect them as Americans: “The Dobbs decision [reversal of Roe v. Wade], is one that affects all women, Jewish women included. So abortion rights voters are definitely not supporting [Donald] Trump.”

Yet, Abe Katsman, who has been analyzing the Jewish vote, points to episodes in history when Jews put aside other burning issues and voted largely based on the Israel issue: “In 1980, [president Jimmy] Carter was running for his second term with an abysmal attitude toward Israel and a foreign policy team that was outright hostile. Carter went down from 71% of the Jewish vote in 1976 to only 45%.” Katsman, who is counsel to Republicans Overseas in Israel, attributes this drop to the Israel issue.

Smith thinks that things are different in this election because Trump himself deters Jews from voting for him: “Jews are fearful of Project 2025, Trump’s declaration to be a dictator, his intention to prosecute his enemies, and his general dark take on what is happening in America.”

Yet the 2024 Jewish vote may not depend on Republican “voter acquisition” but on Democratic “voter retention”; and, as history shows, those are not merely two sides of the same coin.

Four years after Kennedy won, his Democratic successor Lyndon Johnson ran for reelection. While white Southerners have historically voted Democratic, Johnson’s Civil Rights Act infuriated many of them.

Democratic campaign strategists relied on Johnson’s southern background and persona, as well as on voters’ loyalty, but white Southerners stunned the Democrats and abandoned the party. They never came back.

Yet, unlike the 1960 Jews, who became “Kennedy Jews,” the 1964 white Southerners did not become “Goldwater Southerners.” They voted against Johnson and the Democrats, not for Barry Goldwater, the Republican nominee. Indeed, in subsequent elections, this manifested itself to a large extent in Southerners voting for third-party candidates, as well as in staying home.

Jewish voters not flocking to Trump, but not enthusiastic about Harris

Arguably, similar dynamics exist in the 2024 elections with Jewish Democratic voters. They are not flocking to Trump, but might grow increasingly uncomfortable with Kamala Harris and the Democrats’ stance toward Israel, and the Western assault on Judaism. Harris’s recent comment “It’s real” in reaction to the antisemitic slander that Jews in Israel are committing a genocide is just the latest in moves that Republicans hope would prevent Jews from voting for her.

But Democratic strategists believe that such comments are not enough to deter Jewish voters. “Kamala has been crystal clear: Israel is our ally, and we will always support their right to defend themselves,” says Smith. “We will continue to send aid.... There may be a philosophical difference on tactics to fight the war, [such as] on prioritizing the remaining hostages. But the US under Harris will never stray from our support.”

Katsman is not sure: “A lot of lifelong Democrats have already resigned themselves to not voting Democrat this year. Some will leave their ballot blank rather than vote for Trump. Others will vote Republican. Due to October 7 and the surge of hostility to Israel, the Jews are feeling a lot more Jewish than they were 12 months ago, and this would be reflected in their vote.”

Which gets back to the similarity to the 1960 election:

The way Kennedy chose to reward American Jews was by doing something for Israel. As recounted by Ben-Gurion’s biographer Michael Bar-Zohar, Kennedy was so adamant about this that he asked Ben-Gurion what he should do (Ben-Gurion answered: “You should do what is best for the free world”).

Some American Jews today would feel uncomfortable with the equation Kennedy created, since the Jewish vote for Kennedy in 1960 had little to do with the issue of Israel.

Yet in 2024, it is perfectly clear that if Trump wins due to Democratic Jews voting for him, it would certainly be due to the issue of Israel.

The writer is the author of the new book The Assault on Judaism: The Existential Threat Is Coming from the West (TheAssulatonJudaism.com). He is chairman of the Judaism 3.0 Think Tank and author of Judaism 3.0: Judaism’s Transformation to Zionism.