A complex geopolitical dance: Why did Saudi Arabia condemn Israel's attack? - opinion

Saudi Arabia’s recent condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, given the two countries’ historically fraught relationship. 

While the reasons behind this seemingly contradictory move are complex and multifaceted, they can be attributed to a confluence of factors, such as regional geopolitics, domestic considerations, international pressures, and the potential for normalization with Israel.

The Middle East has long been a region marked by complex alliances and deep-seated rivalries. For decades, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been adversaries, sharing a mutual distrust stemming from their divergent ideological and geopolitical interests. However, in recent years, a subtle shift has been observed in their relationship, driven by a shared concern over Iran’s growing regional influence.

Iran, with its support for various militant groups in the region and its nuclear ambitions, has emerged as a common threat to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. This shared threat perception has led to a tacit understanding between the two countries with both recognizing the need to counter Iran’s expansionist tendencies. However, this understanding has not translated into an overt alliance, as Saudi Arabia remains wary, due to its domestic political sensitivities and its broader regional commitments.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to condemn Israel’s attack on Iran is also influenced by domestic considerations. The Saudi government is acutely aware of the deep-seated anti-Israeli sentiment within its population, fueled by decades of Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the perception of Israel as an occupying power. Any overt support for Israel, even in the face of a shared threat, could spark domestic backlash and undermine the government’s legitimacy.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is in the midst of a process of significant social and economic reform, known as Vision 2030. This ambitious plan aims to diversify the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil. As part of this reform, Saudi Arabia is seeking to project itself as a moderate and progressive nation on the global stage. Condemning Israel’s attack on Iran aligns with this image and helps to mitigate the perception of the kingdom as a reactionary state.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran is due to international pressure. The international community, particularly the US and its allies, has increasingly condemned Israel’s actions in the region, particularly in Gaza. Saudi Arabia is under pressure to align with this stance. By condemning Israel’s attack, it is signaling its alignment with the international consensus and avoiding potential diplomatic isolation – even though in this case the US did not condemn Israel’s attack on Iran. The US was aware of the operation in advance but opted not to participate, additionally cautioning Israel against targeting nuclear sites. The dynamics behind the scenes remain unclear, leaving many questions about the true motivations and agreements at play.

Saudi Arabia desires to play a more prominent role in international affairs. Condemning Israel’s attack on Iran allows the kingdom to position itself as a responsible and influential player in the region. This demonstrates its commitment to international law and norms, while also highlighting its ability to mediate disputes and promote regional stability.

Saudi normalization

In recent years, there has been growing speculation about the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel. This potential normalization is driven by several factors, including shared concerns about Iran, economic opportunities, and the desire to reshape the regional landscape. However, several obstacles remain, including the Palestinian issue, domestic sensitivities in Saudi Arabia, and the broader regional context.

The Palestinian issue remains a major stumbling block for any potential normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia has consistently maintained that normalization with Israel can only occur if there is a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; Any agreement would need to address the Palestinian issue and ensure that Palestinian rights are protected.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia is navigating a delicate balance between its foreign policy goals and domestic sensitivities. Any normalization with Israel would need to be carefully calibrated to avoid sparking domestic backlash. The Saudi government would need to carefully manage public opinion and ensure that any normalization deal was perceived as beneficial to the Saudi people.

Regionally, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could have significant implications for the broader Middle East. It could lead to a realignment of regional alliances and power dynamics, potentially impacting the balance of power in the region. Other regional actors, such as Iran and Turkey, may view such a normalization with suspicion and seek to undermine it.

The writer is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.