The US election will determine future of Israel’s wars - opinion

Whatever happens on Tuesday and whoever wins the US election, expect Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to waste no time in leveraging the vote’s outcome to steer Israeli policy – to secure a deal for the hostages and to end the war in Lebanon.

If Donald Trump wins, Netanyahu will seize the opportunity to convince his coalition’s right-wing partners – particularly Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir – that concluding the conflict is essential to keep the incoming administration aligned with Israeli interests.

Netanyahu will argue that Trump has asked for the war to end by January 20, the date of his inauguration. 

He might even hint at Trump’s support for future West Bank annexation as a possibility, asserting that ending the war now could pave the way to the realization of the Right’s dream.

Conversely, if Kamala Harris claims the White House, Netanyahu will play a different hand entirely, painting a darker picture of what a Democratic administration could bring. 

He will tell his right-wing allies that failing to end the Gaza war before Harris takes office risks inviting an American crackdown on the settlements in the West Bank – potentially even worse than the hardline policies of Barack Obama. 

He would remind them of Obama’s “not a single brick” instruction during their first meeting, an encounter that Netanyahu later described as an “ambush” and which pressured Israel into a 10-month settlement freeze.

This time, he’ll insist, the stakes could be even higher. Ending the war before January, Netanyahu will argue, will be necessary to avoid American measures that could go so far as to undermine the IDF’s ability to even prosecute the wars that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will want to see continue.

As a result, the most pressing deadline right now is not the fate of the hostages but the fate of America and who will be the next president.

That is what is driving the sudden change on both fronts: Lebanon, where on Thursday both Israelis and Lebanese were hinting that a deal was imminent and Gaza, where a hostage deal – albeit small in scope – might also be just days away. 

Two major factors at play 

The shifting calculations with Lebanon rest on two key factors. First, the IDF has achieved its primary goal of restoring security to the North by demolishing Hezbollah infrastructure along the border and denying the group the ability to easily invade Israel. 

Any further movement into Lebanese territory would risk prolonged conflict, heightened casualties, and a rapid exhaustion of resources.

Israeli military planners have long recognized that Lebanon presents a different challenge from Gaza and never intended to dismantle Hezbollah in its entirety. 

Instead, the aim has always been to push Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, far enough to minimize their threat to Israel’s North. If this objective can be accomplished now, there is little appetite to press deeper.

Meanwhile, the Gaza war, heading into its 14th month, also appears to be reaching an inflection point. 

Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely degraded, and with Yahya Sinwar dead, Israel believes there is an opportunity to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire.

A post-war framework is also starting to take shape between Israel, the United States, and the UAE, with defense contractors beginning to lay groundwork within Gaza, preparing for what is being termed the “day after” scenario.

Looming over all of this is the unpredictability of the American political transition. The period between the US election and the presidential inauguration has often proven volatile for Israeli-American relations. 

During this time – when the outgoing president is free of political constraints and campaign commitments – Israel needs to be cautious.

It was during this transition period in 2016 that Obama allowed the UN Security Council to pass Resolution 2334, which condemned Israeli settlements and demanded their cessation. 

While Israel saw the American abstention as a betrayal, there is concern now that President Joe Biden would allow a similar resolution to pass – perhaps this time even one that advocates for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Such a resolution would be more likely if Trump wins. If Harris wins, Biden may hold back to avoid binding her administration’s hand.

The result of the US election stands to redefine Israel’s war options. Netanyahu might be adept at navigating such diplomatic challenges, but he knows that this period calls for caution. 

While Israel has had strategic military gains in Gaza and Lebanon, with so much at stake, it needs to tread carefully to avoid getting ensnared in the crossfire of America’s political battleground.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.