With Trump and Netanyahu achieving political strongholds, what happens now? - opinion

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to fire defense minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday evening might not be the triumphant return of a leader after a sweeping electoral win, but in its own way, it signals Netanyahu’s latest political revival.

Gallant was a persistent thorn in Netanyahu’s side and was one of the prime minister’s few remaining rivals within the government. He was popular with the general public and for that, he needed to be removed.

The two have been at odds for years; Gallant publicly criticized Netanyahu’s judicial reform efforts in March 2023, warning that the legislation being proposed made Israel weak and exposed the country to new vulnerabilities.

Now, with Gallant out of the way, Netanyahu has a cabinet of ministers who will be completely subservient. His choice to replace Gallant, Israel Katz, is a veteran Likud figure who has never been one to make waves nor leave a mark in the offices he has held. 

His recent tenure as foreign minister was not defined by diplomatic breakthroughs or other substantive achievements, but by absurd AI-generated cartoons about Turkey, Spain, and Brazil.

Katz, who holds sway with Likud’s voter base, opted long ago to toe the Netanyahu line, appearing to eye a future where he might inherit the reins of power from Netanyahu when he eventually steps aside.

In addition, Gideon Sa’ar, who joined the government a few weeks ago despite pledging just a few weeks before that he would never serve again under Netanyahu, is staying clear of confrontation. He is fixed on reintegrating into the Likud, and compliance with Netanyahu is his only way back.

This reshuffling of the coalition gives Netanyahu a new lease on life. With Gallant gone, there’s no one pushing for a hostage deal against his wishes, no one in a senior position creating friction with the ultra-Orthodox factions over the IDF draft bill, and no one agitating for a formal state commission of inquiry into the failures that led to October 7.

By dismissing Gallant, Netanyahu has also issued a quiet warning to the three civil servants with power to oppose him: Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Ronen Bar. Each now understands the extent of Netanyahu’s ambition to consolidate power.

For Halevi, Gallant’s dismissal signals the beginning of the countdown to his own resignation. Gallant had acted as the IDF’s primary advocate in the cabinet, shielding Halevi and other generals from attacks from ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir. With Gallant’s dismissal, Halevi’s time is limited.

A pursuit of power

Netanyahu’s pursuit of power has been relentless, but also extraordinary. Despite being responsible for the government and military failures that led to the tragic events of October 7, he has not only remained in office but has managed to increase his grip on power – a testament to his uncanny political ability to shift the conversation in even the most difficult circumstances.

The timing of Gallant’s dismissal reveals much about Netanyahu’s calculations. He fired Gallant on Tuesday night in Israel, while Americans were distracted by their own elections, effectively minimizing scrutiny from the Biden administration. Gallant was a key interlocutor with the Americans on issues ranging from humanitarian aid in Gaza to the conduct of Israel’s military strikes.

Firing him on any other day might have triggered a serious backlash from Washington, potentially impacting arms supplies and other strategic cooperation. 

Netanyahu’s choice to act during US Election Day signals his acute awareness of how American politics work and his skill in maneuvering through them.

Netanyahu knows that with Donald Trump set to return as US president in just two months, he must tread carefully. His rapid congratulatory message to Trump on Wednesday – he was one of the first world leaders to do so – aimed to repair Trump’s belief that Netanyahu had congratulated Biden too quickly.

This time, Netanyahu wanted to make things right, hinting not only through his words but also through actions that he is eager to stay in Trump’s good graces.

Netanyahu faces now a pivotal choice: some in his circle think he should deescalate the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon before Trump’s inauguration, something that could be seen as a gesture to the new president and the beginning of a clean slate with the incoming administration. 

Others think Netanyahu should hold off until Trump takes office, allowing Trump to enter the White House as the president who brokered peace.

Netanyahu’s moves – reshaping his coalition, managing his relationship with Trump, and maneuvering through the shifting US political landscape – reflect his keen survival skills. 

Like Trump, Netanyahu too has now consolidated power in Jerusalem. The question is, with both men having achieved their political strongholds, what will they choose to do with it?

The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.