Trump 2.0 will again bring normalization to the Middle East - opinion

The election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency brought relief to many Arab regimes. Before the elections, senior Arab officials were cautious about expressing a preference for any candidate, for obvious reasons, but it is believed that many favored Trump over Kamala Harris. Trump’s re-election is good news for Arab states but in many ways also for Israel. Here is why.

First, several key Arab leaders had prior familiarity with Trump and his team. Strong personal ties were formed with leaders like Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the president of the United Arab Emirates, and Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto ruler. Throughout his campaign, Trump referred to bin Salman as a “friend” and showered him with praise.

Second, during his previous term, Trump had a clear policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of foreign countries. Notably, he once referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as “my favorite dictator.” It is anticipated that a second Trump administration would continue this approach, refraining from criticizing regimes on issues like political freedom and human rights, aligning with these regimes’ preferences.

Third, there is an expectation, especially among Gulf states, that Trump would adopt a tougher stance on Iran than his predecessor, Joe Biden. Iran’s growing confidence and that of its proxies – as evidenced by Hamas’s attack on October 7– are viewed by many in the Gulf as linked to the relatively lenient approach the US took toward Iran under the Biden administration.

Additionally, regional states view Trump as having close ties with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, more importantly, as having significant influence over him, to the extent of potentially swaying his decisions.

Israel’s neighbors hope for a swift end to the Gaza war, which has heightened pressures on them from both their citizens and radical elements in the region. They hope Trump will press Netanyahu to conclude the war even before Trump takes office.

Policy will not differ from Biden

Trump’s future Middle East policy will probably not differ much from that of his predecessor, but he potentially carries much more influence on Arabs and Israelis alike.

Israeli-Saudi normalization is again on the table. Saudi Arabia anticipates that a Trump 2.0 administration would be more generous than Biden in terms of incentives offered to the kingdom in exchange for normalization with Israel, adopt a tougher line on Iran, and pressure Netanyahu. 

Trump’s personal ties to key regional leaders and his influence over Netanyahu – potentially leading to Israeli concessions aligned with the kingdom’s expectations, such as advancing a two-state solution with the Palestinians – increase the likelihood of renewing and even accelerating the normalization process.

The writer is a Gulf expert, and a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University, and at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He has previously served in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office.