Judea and Samaria’s future: What happens the day after Mahmoud Abbas? – opinion

With so many arenas to contend with in the current war, it almost seems that, for a moment, the chaos that characterizes Judea and Samaria is almost forgotten.

The head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, is approaching 90 and is not in good health.

The PA that he has been at the head of for nearly two decades is also fundamentally corrupt and despised by the majority of his people – some due to extreme religious views and identification with the Hamas movement or similar such movements, and some because they are simply disgusted with the blatant corruption exhibited by the Fatah leadership over the years.

The weakness of the PA, as a result of the Israeli government’s deliberate policy over the past few years, alongside the corruption and hubris that have been gnawing at the Palestinian leadership for years, have contributed to the creation of a governmental vacuum and the lack of control of the Palestinian “street.”

As expected, the Islamic Republic of Iran hastened to fill this void, as it had done in many countries in the region, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and more. The Iranian regime’s modus operandi is to disintegrate countries on the military, economic, and social levels. On the social level, it tends to deepen the rifts that already exist in almost every society and increase internal tensions to create an atmosphere of chaos.

Iranian infiltration

Then, out of the chaos and lack of control, it usually infiltrates and takes over the population and its resources, using a local arm and turning it into a “proxy.” This is exactly how the Iranian regime has been operating for years in the West Bank, too, building the power of Hamas and Islamic Jihad there and smuggling huge amounts of weapons to them through Jordanian territory, much to the displeasure of the Jordanian regime.

At the same time, the local Palestinian population has for years been nurtured by an education system that incites and indoctrinates against Israel, the Jews, and the West, despite the fact that for decades, many aid funds have been flowing into the Palestinian Authority from Western countries, primarily the United States.

UNRWA, which was only recently outlawed in the Knesset, has been operating for decades in Judea and Samaria as the very body that executes the extreme and incendiary educational system, helping in practice to “raise” new generations of misled youth who harbor hatred towards the Jewish people.

In the absence of an orderly Israeli policy in relation to the area in question for several decades, the situation has only continued to deteriorate. In fact, it has reached the point of becoming a territory lacking effective leadership with an unchecked and incited population eager to carry out terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians.

Moreover, many of the Palestinians in the area have not experienced the destruction and devastation experienced by their brethren in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, they are not in a hurry to point an accusatory finger at Hamas when it comes to the fate of Gaza. The blame, as far as they are concerned, is directed mainly against Israel, as it appears from surveys conducted among them in the last year following the horrors of October 7.

In addition, due to the security situation and the heavy fear of terrorist attacks, the legal ways to obtain work visas for Palestinians inside Israel have been closed.

Although this policy is correct, having been adapted to the current circumstances, the economic strangulation plays to the benefit of the extremist groups that are encouraged and supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran and thus fill the ranks of the Hamas movement and dozens of Jihad organizations that have sprung up in the region (at least about 30).

The IDF’s activity inside Judea and Samaria, including the frequent operations in Tulkarm and other Palestinian cities and the increased IDF presence along the perimeter fence, is welcome and contributes to the reduction and eradication of threats.

However, they do nothing to curb or deal with the bubbling extremism in the area. Ammunition continues to be smuggled through Jordan, incitement is rampant in education, and the activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran as if the region were Tehran’s private playground remain.

All of the above sets the tone for the day after the death of the person who is currently at the helm of the PA, Abu Mazen. And this could happen at any given moment. This aforementioned area is located only a few hundred meters from Jewish villages and towns near the fence along the eastern border of the State of Israel, without any properly administered and supervised buffer zone between them.

It almost reminds one of the state of affairs in Iraq, months after the withdrawal of the US troops, as well as Afghanistan following the American withdrawal – a lawless jungle where the strongest and most fit survive.

Is the State of Israel prepared for this? Is there any organization or body that will be able to maintain order in that arena “the day after,” with a very long line of Palestinian leaders waiting to grab a position of leadership the moment after Abu Mazen’s departure?

Is the State of Israel conducting a significant campaign with decision-makers in the international arena, led by the United States, regarding conditioning future aid to the PA on a complete change of the terrible education system there, which has huge implications on the security of the citizens of the State of Israel and many other countries in the region?

After all, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia do not harbor particular interest in allowing the hated Islamic Republic to expand its influence. Despite the understandable reluctance among them to enter the complicated and dangerous Palestinian arena, they have clear interests that justify taking operative steps to stabilize the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, and even Jordan.

They understand very well that these arenas, where there is a Palestinian majority in a current weakened and chaotic state, are a comfortable playground for Tehran.

The writer is a fellow of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, a former member of Knesset, and a past deputy ambassador to Egypt.