UAE will maintain relations with Israel after murder of Chabad emissary- opinion

The details surrounding the abduction and murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the United Arab Emirates remain unclear. However, there is cautious speculation that Iran is behind the attack. Iran has long sought to target Israeli individuals and assets abroad. In this context, there have been numerous reports of Mossad operations thwarting such attempts in collaboration with foreign intelligence agencies all around the world.

Yet, the UAE is not just another location for such incidents. The murder of a religious figure associated with Israel undoubtedly embarrasses the Emirati authorities, who pride themselves on promoting cultural and religious tolerance. Despite growing pressures – particularly from Iran and in the context of Israel’s ongoing war – the UAE has maintained its relationship with Israel.

The prolonged war, with no apparent diplomatic resolution, has frustrated many in the Arab world, including the UAE. The Emirates plays a significant diplomatic and humanitarian role in Gaza and is the most active Arab state in providing aid, water, and medical help to the Gazans.

Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan faces criticism for adhering to the normalization agreement with Israel despite the extensive destruction in Gaza and the high Palestinian death toll. The murder of a Chabad emissary highlights the increasing costs the UAE pays for maintaining its relations with Israel.

This pressure is beginning to take its toll, as reflected in recent shifts in Emirati rhetoric. UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, the crown prince’s brother, recently stated that his country would not support reconstruction efforts in Gaza post-conflict (i.e., “the day after”) without the establishment of a Palestinian state. This suggests a recalibration in the Emirati stance, with future relations with Israel increasingly influenced by the Palestinian issue.

For now, cutting ties with Israel is not on the table. However, relations have been stagnant for some time, at least publicly. Emirati leaders find it prudent to keep a measured distance from Israel, partly due to growing criticism from the Arab street and fears that this discontent might turn against them.

The murder of Kogan could amplify local opposition to the presence of Israelis in the Gulf state. This likely explains Abu Dhabi’s effort to downplay the incident, framing Kogan as a Moldovan citizen.

The murder also tests the UAE’s relations with Iran. Since 2019, the Emirates has sought to improve ties with their most threatening neighbor, the Shi’ite powerhouse to the east. This cautious détente reflects the UAE’s traditional hedging strategy and its relative weakness compared to Iran.

Iran and its proxies

Like other Arab states, the UAE justifiably fears Iran and its proxies. On the one hand, Iran seeks to mend ties with Gulf states to break its international isolation; on the other, it engages in subversive and terroristic activities, pressuring these countries to avoid strengthening ties with Israel.

Iran has so far hesitated to act against Israel within the Gulf states, especially in the UAE, which is a global economic and commercial hub. This makes the UAE, particularly Dubai, a vital trading partner for Iran (around 30$ billion a year). Iran likely employed proxies to carry out the murder, attempting to obscure its involvement and minimize potential damage to its ties with the Emirates.

Israeli policymakers should avoid making their usual public threats and downplay Iran’s role in this incident to spare the Emiratis embarrassment. Publicly attributing the attack to Iran undermines the UAE’s image as a safe and secure state while escalating the tensions between the UAE and Iran.

Israel has a vested interest in maintaining robust and prosperous relations with the UAE, currently the warmest peace Israel shares with any Arab state. However, this warm peace could quickly cool.

The writer is a senior researcher specializing in Gulf states at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University, and a former senior official in Israel’s National Security Council. He is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, Washington, DC.