How Germany’s expanded naval role could bolster regional security – opinion

Following the US-brokered ceasefire, renewed discussions and diplomatic engagements between senior American and Israeli officials present an opportunity to enhance regional security mechanisms. 

With Lebanon moving toward a framework of understandings under the ceasefire, there is potential for more forceful monitoring to prevent arms smuggling into the country. As part of this effort, Germany is anticipated to increase its naval presence, supporting an expanded UNIFIL mission aimed at preventing weapons transfers and managing Hezbollah’s activities near the southern Lebanese border.

Germany’s role is also appreciated in Jerusalem, as it has acted not only under the United Nations mandate but has also engaged its forces actively, at least once, in a visible manner. On October 17, 2024, a German warship participating in the UNIFIL mission downed a drone off the coast of Lebanon. A spokesperson for the Bundeswehr Joint Operations Command stated that the object of unknown origin became a target of their defense systems. The aerial drone was intercepted to the northwest of the UNIFIL base in Naqoura, far offshore but close to the German warship. The origin and model of the drone remain unconfirmed.

Officially, Germany’s involvement in the mission is centered on maritime patrols off the coast of Lebanon, with an average deployment of around 150 soldiers, according to Bundeswehr publications. However, as early as the beginning of the war, roughly a year ago, the German Army’s Special Forces Command (KSK) and Navy Special Forces deployed special units to Cyprus and Jordan. 

With the escalation of Houthi attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb Gulf region, Germany also decided to increase its naval presence as part of the US-led international coalition. The deployment of the Hessen frigate to the Red Sea was described from the outset as the German Navy’s most dangerous mission in recent decades, despite its primary objective being to protect core national interests. 

Shifts in German defense policy

Germany also contributed a team to the operation’s headquarters in Greece, as well as helicopters to support coalition activities in the Red Sea. 

According to the European Union (EU) Council decision, the mission’s mandate is to safeguard freedom of navigation and maritime traffic within its jurisdiction. This includes the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as international waters in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf. 

In principle, the EU mission has led to the simultaneous deployment of at least four ships along with accompanying aircraft and helicopters. However, Germany’s specific mandate clarified that the German forces’ mission to protect ships does not cover the maritime area north of the latitude of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Persian Gulf.

Conversely, it has become clear that this naval mission has also shifted the core assumptions and planning of Germany’s official defense policy. For a long time, a Bundeswehr return to East Africa was deemed unlikely, as was a scenario involving air defense against armed groups such as the Houthis and potentially Hezbollah, in the future.

GERMANY’S PRIORITIES officially still place the Baltic Sea and the northern European theater at the forefront, as part of the country’s interests in ensuring stability within its maritime domain. The German Navy is tasked with securing Europe’s northern flank, covering key supply routes in the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, with particular attention traditionally given to the northern Norwegian Sea. 

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, and especially in recent years, the Baltic Sea has gained increased focus due to NATO and Russian activities as well as the safeguarding of underwater infrastructure. This emphasis was reinforced in Germany, particularly in response to draft laws from the Moscow Defense Ministry, raising concerns over possible shifts in maritime boundaries in the eastern Gulf of Finland and around the Kaliningrad enclave. 

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has urged Russia to adhere to UN conventions and avoid violating international maritime law. Sweden’s chief of defense also warned of Russian ambitions in the Baltic Sa, particularly concerning the island of Gotland.

This renewed attention brings hope in Israel as well, where a redeployment of German naval forces could lead to more stringent monitoring or, at the very least, foster improved aerial defense against attempts by Hezbollah or other groups to target Israel via unmanned aerial systems. 

Beyond the need to oversee smuggling routes, the Mediterranean Sea is a major conduit for trade and transport, housing critical infrastructure such as data cables, making the security of underwater infrastructure partially a German interest as well. The German Navy is also aiming to advance new unmanned systems to protect against naval mines, engage in underwater warfare, and, crucially, safeguard seabed pipelines.

Germany’s maritime presence in the region has precedents, including its participation since 2006 in monitoring waters off the Lebanese coast. Since then, Germany’s naval footprint has been especially prominent in the maritime area north of Beirut and within UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon. Germany has also worked to establish radar stations along the coastline to ensure comprehensive surveillance of the maritime area, although it remains unclear whether these radars will be handed over to Lebanese Army operations, as Germany had hoped. 

Notably, UNIFIL’s flagship mission thus far has been to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Lebanon via sea routes, though it has struggled to fully achieve this objective. Germany is also interested in providing UNIFIL missions in southern Lebanon and additional financial resources to the Lebanese Army – though it is still uncertain whether these will be included in the expected agreements.

In general, both anti-aircraft and aerial defense have been somewhat neglected, not only within the German Army but also in the German Navy. Consequently, Germany’s contribution has become more complex as the need for enhanced aerial defense has grown. Only certain German Navy vessels are considered effective in aerial defense. According to the German military, some of these ships can utilize special radar systems to monitor a broad aerial range, with weapons systems capable of intercepting targets at a distance of up to 160 kilometers. 

This is also part of the dilemma facing Germany in choosing its priorities across the European theater and the Middle East, as converging zones require them to decide on naval force deployments. 

In Israel, it is likely hoped that a renewed UNIFIL force, along with Germany’s naval presence, will lead to tighter supervision in preventing arms smuggling and provide additional warning systems against aerial incursions. This cooperation aligns with recent developments, including Germany’s receipt of Israel’s Arrow (Hetz) missile defense system and Israel’s acquisition of an advanced submarine from Kiel, underscoring their deepening strategic partnership.  

The writer is a research fellow at the Europa Institute at Bar-Ilan University.