Trump’s challenges with Iran’s regime - opinion

President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to reenter the White House next month, having assembled his intelligence team. His administration will face significant challenges from the Islamic Republic of Iran. A major and ongoing threat to the United States remains the mullah’s regime in Tehran; naturally, this will pose problems for Trump. Since 2023, Iran’s terrorist sleeper cells in the Western hemisphere have repeatedly attempted to assassinate him. In reality, the threat extends beyond the former president, targeting US borders and institutions.

From the White House to the borders of the US, locations will remain targets of aggression by the Islamic Republic and its affiliates. 

Tom Homan, Trump’s appointee for border management, brings extensive experience in combating terrorism and organized crime. Well-acquainted with the Islamic Republic and Islamic terrorism, the incoming border czar‘s vigilant monitoring of Special Interest Aliens and cartel activities at the US-Mexico border underscores the persistent threats from organized crime and, potentially, Iran-linked terrorism. His efforts demonstrate a profound understanding of the complexities at the border, focusing on protecting national security without any prejudice against Iranians or any other nationality.

Meanwhile, the deceptive lobbies of Iran’s regime have long been established in the US, repeatedly attempting to influence American policymakers with distortions far removed from reality. For instance, the Islamic Republic’s propaganda apparatus claims to US officials that “the CIA and America orchestrated a coup in Iran in 1953, toppling a democratically elected prime minister," a  – laughable and egregious falsehood. It remains unclear why such a narrative should be perpetuated, especially given the murky historical details surrounding the supposed election of that populist figure, Mossadegh.

It also often asserts that reformists differ from conservatives or hardliners. Yet, no one questions what changes they genuinely aim to implement within the dictatorial theocratic system. What distinguishes these factions in their promotion and expansion of Islamic terrorism? Absolutely nothing; none of these corrupt factions has opposed severe domestic repression. 

On another note, Persian media outlets under the influence of the US Department of State, swayed by networks linked to these pro-regime factions, are ineffectual, unwatched, and widely disliked. Despite this, millions of American taxpayer dollars are wasted on broadcasting futile Persian-language programs and hosting repetitive guests. This represents a grim reality.

Moreover, the media, some American think tanks, and even universities have become echo chambers for the Tehran regime’s propaganda, shamelessly disseminating misleading narratives about Iranian history and politics.

FOR EXAMPLE, major American media outlets travel to Tehran to interview regime officials, provide them with designed platforms in New York, or publish the aggressive views of Tehran’s intelligence officials in English. Similarly, an American think tank might host a dinner and offer a platform to Tehran’s notorious figure, Ebrahim Raisi; while several American universities provide positions to individuals tied to NIAC or the Islamic Republic, including elements of its terrorist network.

On the other hand, hundreds of hours spent by previous Democratic administrations on diplomacy and negotiations with Iran’s Khomeinist regime have been fruitless, leading to no substantive outcomes. The fundamental DNA of the Islamic Republic of Iran is entwined with terrorism, missiles, drones, and fostering crises and animosity toward America and Israel. Expecting reform and change within this framework is not only unwise but illogical, setting unrealistic expectations for any genuine reform or meaningful change.

Conversely, the lives of hundreds, possibly thousands, of American servicemen in the Middle East are endangered by Iran’s terrorist networks. Without a redefined intelligence policy, American forces may continue to suffer casualties, as in the past four years, without an adequate response from the White House.

Indeed, there have been instances when American officials preemptively informed Iranian officials about military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, highlighting the need for a sharply defined security policy to effectively manage these risks and threats.

A daunting task

TRUMP FACES the daunting task of confronting the Islamic Republic and its terrorism-linked network alone, with minimal reliance on European allies. The Iranian regime, leaning on support from China, Russia, and North Korea, persists in its antagonism toward the US and Israel, actively maintaining its terrorist operations.

Trump and his intelligence team are fully cognizant of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. US intelligence agencies are well-informed about the mullahs’ pursuit of developing a nuclear weapon and an atomic bomb, underscoring the critical need for vigilant and strategic responses to these ongoing threats.

They recognize that all Islamic terrorist networks within the Shia Crescent have ties to Tehran. The intelligence and military committees in both the US Senate and House are well aware of how the American intelligence community views Tehran’s threats, based on detailed intel reports. 

The name of the Iranian regime is a constant in discussions across American counterterrorism centers or the CIA’s Mission Center for Counterterrorism (CTC). Additionally, intelligence services from Persian Gulf states and Israel’s Mossad keep Washington thoroughly briefed on threats emanating from Tehran.

Despite this extensive knowledge, the failures of the past four years and similar previous periods remain indefensible. Yet, even with Trump’s entry into the White House, no specific and impactful policy has been articulated to confront the Tehran regime decisively. The path forward remains muddled; despite possessing in-depth intelligence about Iranian threats, a clear and potent strategy to effectively address the Tehran regime is still lacking.

Media outlets connected to the Islamic Republic continue discussing negotiations with Trump, but what exactly is being negotiated? Trump and his intelligence team still face challenges in dealing with the Iranian regime. Any agreement with terrorists would merely legitimize them, akin to the absurd idea that one could “teach chess to a gorilla.”  Trump shouldn’t be deceived by these Khomeinist tricksters. As the Iranian saying goes: They dye cats and sell them as canaries.”

In private conversations with members of Trump’s transition team, I’ve highlighted essential strategic and operational measures regarding Iran. These include comprehensive intelligence briefings, intensifying the “maximum pressure” campaign, avoiding diplomatic interactions with Tehran, implementing robust counterterrorism efforts, safeguarding domestic interests, preparing for an immediate response, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people, and reforming Persian-language outreach programs to effectively counter regime propaganda.

Given Trump’s staunch support for Israel, a decisive and serious stance against the Islamic Republic of Iran is anticipated. However, nothing definitive has materialized yet, and the Middle East remains a simmering cauldron. 

Meanwhile, the widely despised 86-year-old dictator of Tehran continues to plot chaos and crises.

The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X@EQFARD.