Is Turkey set to become the new regional power instead of Iran? - opinion

December has not been a good month for Iran and its proxies. For starters, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is now in effect, which will see the Lebanese Iranian proxy retire north of the Litani River. Hezbollah will be forced to stop fighting Israel or face the wrath of the Lebanese people who do not appreciate the war Hezbollah forced on them.

If a ceasefire deal in Lebanon was not bad enough for Hezbollah, Syrian rebels have succeeded in toppling the Assad regime. 

Last week, after throwing Assad’s troops out of Aleppo and invading his palace, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey have taken over Syria. For Israel, this is a game changer, which may lead to Turkey becoming the new regional power instead of Iran.

This Syrian rebellion, while it has weakened Iran and its proxies, still might not be a good development for Israel.

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization, the former branch of al-Qaeda in Syria, is spearheading the offensive. The Syrian National Army, which is backed by Turkey, has also joined the rebels. Some of the Syrian rebels who have taken over are radical Islamists, even though they share Israel’s disdain for the Iranian axis. 

In a recent video exposed by MEMRI, female Kurdish fighters appear as they are captured by Islamist militants in Syria. In the video, the militants are heard calling the Kurdish fighters “pigs” and ordering them to cover their hair.

Nevertheless, the toppling of the Assad regime is still beneficial from an Israeli point of view as it leads to the weakening of Iran and its proxies. 

The weakening of the Iranian axis by the Syrian rebels only enhances the blow that the Iranian regime and its militias have experienced in the wake of Israel’s war in Lebanon and Israel’s retaliation to Iranian missile attacks upon the Jewish state. This will make it even harder for Iran, Hezbollah, and other Iranian armed groups to regroup against Israel in the future.

As the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reported, “Following the severe blows that its proxies have suffered over the past year, and due to the attacks that Israel carried out on Iranian soil, Tehran is currently preoccupied with efforts to address the damage that Hezbollah sustained in Lebanon and has few resources or soldiers to send to Syria. It is evident that the Iranians were surprised by the rebels’ offensive and their unexpected achievements.

“They claim that Israel and the United States are responsible, as part of a “conspiracy” designed to weaken the pro-Iranian axis in the Middle East even further. At least one senior Iranian officer from the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards [Corps (IRGC)] was killed in the offensive and Iran was forced to evacuate its consulate in Aleppo. 

Moreover, anti-Iranian rhetoric has emerged in the areas captured by the rebels, where residents have defaced posters of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander who was eliminated in 2020.”

Azerbaijan 

The advantage for Turkey resulting from the offensive of rebels that it already backs in Syria is a more enhanced position in the greater Middle East region than it has held since Azerbaijan was victorious in the Second Karabakh War [2020] and subsequent military operations [lasting until 2022]. 

Azerbaijan’s victory in the Karabakh region, obtained with the support of Turkey and Israel, significantly aided efforts to advance Turkic influence at the expense of Iran and its proxies. Armenia, backed by Iran and Russia, had illegally occupied Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions over 30 years. One-fifth of Azerbaijan was thus under the control of a country acting as an Iranian proxy, leaving close to a million Azerbaijanis displaced.

When Azerbaijan regained control over Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts, it helped to significantly reduce Iranian influence in the region and enhance Turkic influence. 

Azerbaijan also helped enhance the power of secular Islam to the detriment of radical Islamism such as that promoted in Iran, as Azerbaijan is a secular state and every area that it controls is under secular rule of law. Areas that are controlled by Iran’s proxies, even if they are not Muslim, do not encourage tolerance and moderation.

So, with the prospect of a peace agreement, Iranian influence can expect to be further reduced as Armenia has moved away from supporting Putin and will abandon its support for Tehran in favor of forming an alliance with the West and making peace with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Armenians may also revise their constitution so that it is more respectful of Azerbaijan’s national sovereignty. A deal is expected to be drafted soon and when peace is obtained between Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, this will be another blow for Iran, which has been utilizing Armenia as its window to the outside world as it faces heavy international sanctions. 

A peace deal will close that option for Iran.

If December 2024 has not been a bad enough month for Iran and its proxies, January 2025 might be even worse for them when Donald J. Trump begins his second term in the White House.

The writer is a Middle East scholar and commentator on the region.