Overthrowing Assad’s regime will not translate into immediate political stability - opinion

Let’s start with the conclusion: Security instability in a neighboring country opens the door to risks that may lead to economic instability. As of writing this, it appears that rebel forces have taken control of Bashar Assad’s regime. On the surface, the fall of Assad’s regime seems like a positive development that Israel has desired for years, as Assad, to put it mildly, is not a friend of Israel.

However, the pressing question is whether it is better to have a weakened and familiar evil neighbor or an unfamiliar, extreme, and unpredictable one. This situation arises at a complex time when the IDF and the State of Israel are already allocating significant resources to economic recovery following prolonged conflict.

From an economic perspective, the current situation has implications across several time frames:

The world’s attention is focused on the situation in Syria, which works to Israel’s advantage. Iran, preoccupied with supporting Assad, has fewer resources – both physical and financial – to focus on Israel. Additionally, the turmoil in Syria further weakens Iran and its proxies, which have already been significantly impacted by Israel over the past year.

This buys Israel valuable time to invest in itself, rebuild depleted resources, and advance its economy.

Establishing a stable rebel regime in Syria will take time. While the rebels have gained control of Syria – or at least most of it – and have overthrown Assad’s regime, this does not translate into immediate political stability. It is important to recognize that achieving political and security stability in Syria will take years.

Identifying strengths and weaknesses

Concurrently, Israel will need time to familiarize itself with the new Syrian leadership, assess its intentions toward Israel, and identify its strengths and weaknesses. Based on these evaluations, Israel will need to formulate diplomatic strategies and agreements with Syria’s new “landlord.” Economically, the absence of clear political relations and intentions between Israel and Syria creates a security risk, which directly impacts Israel’s economy.

Looking further ahead, predictions become speculative as it is difficult to foresee the situation a decade from now. Currently, Israel faces a clear state of uncertainty, with significant IDF forces stationed along the Syrian border to guard against unknown intentions from the rebels.

The underlying assumption is that a rebel-led Syria will weaken the Iranian axis and its proxies, which should benefit Israel since Iran is a primary adversary. Consequently, Israel’s security situation is expected to stabilize over time, positively influencing its economy.

However, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions. It remains uncertain who will ultimately govern Syria and what their motives will be. The coming period will be critical for Israel to learn about its new neighbors. Who knows? Perhaps one day we’ll sit down for coffee together.

The writer is a strategic consultant and angel investor.