Sunday in Damascus with Julani - opinion

Consistent with his aversion to foreign intervention, President-elect Donald Trump has welcomed the overthrow of the Assad government in Syria, but in bold caps on his Truth Social platform, he cautioned: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT… DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

Too late. We already are involved and have been for a long time, including during his first term, said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges in a CNN interview. It is definitely in America’s interest to help see the situation stabilized, the refugees able to return, the Iranian threat reduced, our Kurdish allies protected, and Israel safer.

As if to emphasize America’s ongoing role, squadrons of US planes, including B-52s, struck 75 targets in Syria last Sunday, the day the rebels took control. President Bashar Assad, the malevolent ophthalmologist blind to the interests of his people, fled to Moscow, where he was granted “humanitarian” asylum by his friend, Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

The 13-year civil war ended in an 11-day rebel sweep from Aleppo to Damascus, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The Syrian army and regime collapsed with surprising speed.

Trump’s warning reflects his distaste for foreign entanglements. While he adopted the America First slogan of the last century, he may not be as isolationist as so many of his followers and Congressional allies. The once and future president may feel “This is not our fight,” but it is. It is about America’s national security, our role in world leadership, and our allies, notably but not only Israel.

US operations in Syria

The United States has some 900 troops in Syria fighting ISIS with our Kurdish and other allies. Trump wanted to withdraw those forces five years ago, claiming, “We defeated 100% of the ISIS caliphate.” But we hadn’t. He was forced to walk that back and pursue the enemy. President Joe Biden continues to support that mission, reemphasizing that reality as Damascus fell.

The leader of HTS and the victorious rebels, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, is on the US terrorist list, as is his group. There is a $10 million bounty on his head, which presents an interesting dilemma. HTS broke away from ISIS and aligned with al-Qaeda, until leaving in 2016. 

He has spoken of taking a pragmatic and moderate approach, particularly regarding women and other religions, and eschewing the creation of a caliphate. The Taliban said similar things before it took over Afghanistan and we know how that worked out.

HTS is a Sunni Islamist movement, while Assad is Alawite, a Shi’ite sect that has dominated Syria and aligned with Shi’ite Iran.

The United States and other Western and moderate Arab Sunni governments have been in contact with the rebels. Biden welcomed the overthrow of Assad as an “historic opportunity” and said the US should “work with our partners” and other players to help shape the outcome and prevent ISIS from taking advantage of the situation.

The Netanyahu government moved quickly to make sure the Syrian upheaval did not spill across its borders. Syrian troops fled their posts facing Israel and the Golan Heights, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF to seize control of the buffer zone inside Syria, which has been demilitarized for the past 50 years. He said the move was temporary until the situation in Damascus stabilizes. 

The Israel Air Force also attacked chemical weapons and missile depots as well as air defense and other military sites inside Syria to make sure they didn’t fall into rebel hands 

THE BIG losers are not just the tyrannical Assad regime but its closest allies, Hezbollah and Iran. Iran had military facilities scattered throughout the country. Syria was Tehran’s air and land route – the Shi’ite Crescent – to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon, which the regime considered the tip of the spear for its retaliation against any Israeli attack on its nuclear installations.

It was only the latest setback for Iran and the Axis of Resistance. The ball began rolling downhill on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel and Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles from Lebanon in support of Hamas. Israel killed the leaders of both groups, decimated Hamas, and inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah. The Islamic Republic’s allies in Iraq and Yemen were also hit hard. 

Iran’s show of support for its embattled proxies with ballistic missile barrages on Israel was an embarrassing failure. Tehran was humiliated and its weaknesses were exposed by the Israeli retaliation that destroyed much of its air defense system and some nuclear facilities. 

Russia was also a big loser, seeing its air defense systems perform so poorly and its allies defeated. It is trying to return to its naval and air bases that it left as the regime collapsed. 

Biden said his administration is trying to reach the rebels to release American journalist Austin Tice, who has been held by the Assad regime for a dozen years.

EVEN THOUGH Trump insists “this is not our fight,” he must recognize it is very much in our interest to see that the situation in Syria stabilizes. 

As someone who claims to understand the problems of immigration, he should want to solve the largest refugee crisis in the world – an estimated 14 million Syrians have fled since 2011 – and help ensure they can return to their homes, as some already have begun. The Syrian people can be the big winners, depending on what kind of government emerges. 

Trump criticized president Barack Obama for warning Assad in 2012 that using chemical weapons would be crossing “a red line” with “enormous consequences,” but when 1,400 men, women, and children were fatally gassed, Obama backed down. 

Israel attacked some of those unconventional weapons stockpiles Sunday. Over the past 13 years, Assad has been responsible for the deaths of an estimated half a million Syrians, many killed by his indiscriminate bombings, chemical weapons, or starvation policies.

After the Syrian people themselves, America and Israel are big winners. Their leading adversaries have been humiliated and weakened, and their influence in the region diminished.

Biden is handing his successor a Middle East that, as the wars wind down, could provide unexpected opportunities for beginning serious moves toward peace. It remains to be seen whether Donald “I-alone-can-fix-it” Trump will have the foreign policy sophistication or the desire to help bring that about. 

The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and a former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.