Exposing the truth about the death toll in Gaza

Our report for the Henry Jackson Society (HJS), Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza, delivers a sobering analysis of Hamas’ manipulation of fatality statistics during the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Our team’s findings are not just an indictment of Hamas’ propaganda. They are a vital reminder of why Israel must continue to challenge misinformation on every front. 

The report identifies severe flaws in the fatality data provided by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) - numbers that have been uncritically amplified by global media outlets. It reveals a trend to inflate civilian casualties, distort demographic data, and exclude combatant fatalities—which has demonized Israel on the world stage. These distortions not only harm Israel’s international reputation but also undermine its ability to effectively defend itself against an enemy that weaponizes civilian suffering for political gain. 

At the core of the report is a meticulous examination of the fatality data that highlights numerous statistical anomalies. For instance, men of fighting age—those most likely to be combatants—are misclassified as women and children to skew the civilian death toll. In some cases, cancer patients and natural deaths have been included in war casualty counts, further inflating the numbers. Even individuals who died prior to the conflict or were killed by Hamas’ own misfired rockets appear on these lists. 

Equally troubling is the complete exclusion of Hamas combatant deaths from the MoH’s reports. The IDF estimates that over 17,000 militants have been killed since the conflict began, yet these figures are conspicuously absent from global reporting. Instead, international media overwhelmingly relies on Hamas’ unverified numbers. Our partners, fifty.global, found that 98% of surveyed outlets cited MoH data while only 5% included Israeli figures. 

The result is a skewed narrative that portrays Israel as indiscriminately targeting civilians while absolving Hamas of responsibility for its actions. This narrative, repeated across global headlines, erodes Israel’s moral standing and fuels international condemnation. 

The consequences of this disinformation campaign are far-reaching. Hamas’ ability to manipulate public perception undermines Israel’s legitimate right to self-defense. By inflating civilian casualties, Hamas shifts the focus from its own war crimes—such as using human shields and launching rockets from civilian areas—to a distorted image of Israeli aggression. 

This not only bolsters Hamas’ support among its allies but also pressures Israel diplomatically, complicating its efforts to secure international legitimacy for its military actions. The misrepresentation of civilian casualties has already influenced global opinion, driving calls for ceasefires and investigations that fail to hold Hamas accountable. 

This weaponization of casualty figures jeopardizes Israel’s security. By focusing disproportionate international scrutiny on Israel, Hamas gains breathing room and international support. The IDF’s commitment to minimizing civilian harm, a cornerstone of its operational doctrine, becomes overshadowed by a narrative that disregards its efforts entirely. 

The findings of our report underscore the urgent need for Israel to actively counter Hamas’ disinformation. Of course, this requires exposing the flaws in Hamas’ data. The other half of the equation is engagement with international media to ensure balanced and accurate reporting. Israel must invest far more in public diplomacy at every level to highlight Hamas’ exploitation of its own population, while emphasizing and demonstrating the IDF’s adherence to international law. 

For Israel, the stakes are existential. Allowing Hamas to dominate the narrative weakens its ability to defend its citizens and tarnishes its global reputation. Our report is a crucial tool in Israel’s battle against misinformation, providing the evidence needed to challenge false narratives and reaffirm its right to defend itself against terrorism. 

As the report makes clear, this is not just a war fought with weapons, but one waged in the realm of public perception. For Israel to prevail, it must win both.

Andrew Fox is a former British paratrooper and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society (HJS), a London-based transatlantic think tank