Israel should not gamble on the Kurds, our strategy should be based in reality - opinion

The common wisdom in Israel is that Israel’s geopolitical strategy should create an alliance with the Kurds against hostile forces in the region.

The Kurds, after all, have a common historical story similar to the Jews- they are the largest nation without a state, a situation that Jews can identify with. They are seen as more progressive and egalitarian- they incorporate women in combat roles, and they fight jihadi extremists, most notably ISIS. All of these reasons are valid, except they overlook realpolitik logic in the everchanging Syrian landscape.

Currently, Syria is turning from an Iranian client state to a Turkish one. The Turks not only directly control the Syrian National Army from their own military but also have connections to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the smaller factions that make up HTS at the logistical and intelligence levels.

Whatever political order Syria enters, the Turks will have significant influence and hold sway in any new arrangement. This gives President Erdogan huge leverage over the incoming US administration and other regional actors.

Turkish pragmatism

Although hostile to Israel, especially during the current war, Turkey has shown pragmatism in matters of national security when the national interest pointed them to reaching some collaboration with Israel.

Turkey’s relationship with Israel has known its fair share of ups and downs, but in the end, the Turkish national interest was the actual driver of policy, even with Erdogan as its President. 

The SDF, the Kurds’ militia that controls Northeastern Syria, referred to as “Rojava,” includes the YPG militia, which is the PKK.

The PKK (The Kurdistan Workers' Party) is recognized as a terrorist organization by the US, the European Union, Israel, and, of course, Turkey. The biggest national security threat to the Turks is the militant Kurdish groups seeking autonomy.

The Kurds are Turkey’s largest minority, comprising about 20% of the population, and their presence near the Turkish border with Syria is a serious security threat. For the Turks, the PKK is what Hamas is to Israel. This is without mentioning that the PKK collaborated with Palestinian terrorist organizations during the first Lebanon war and is hostile to Israel and Zionism as part of their revolutionary Marxist-Leninist ideology. 

Currently, the Kurds are losing in Syria. Erdogan is preparing his military for another military operation in the strategic city of Kobani near the border, the positions taken by the Kurds are encroached by the SNA and there is great animus between HTS and other groups and the Kurds since they collaborated with Assad.

The commander of the Kurdish SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), Mazloum Abdi, has recently said about the clashes between his group and Turkish-backed groups that he is willing to reach a truce with Turkey by telling non-Syrian Kurdish forces to leave. He knows that his forces are outnumbered and, therefore, is willing to negotiate. 

Moreover, President-elect Trump has indicated multiple times that he does not intend to intervene in Syria and has called for the removal of the remaining 900 US troops from Syria. Back in 2019, it ordered the withdrawal of troops from northern Syria against the position of the US security establishment.

The Pentagon has slow-walked previous orders by Trump to evacuate from Syria. The sentiment to take out US troops is even stronger now in the MAGA-sphere, Trump’s main base, because of the previous resistance from the US security establishment, which impeded his previous attempts. This would only reinvigorate Trump to finish what he could do in his first term.

In the current geopolitical landscape, it is not wise for Israel to bet on a losing horse. Instead, Israel’s strategy should be realpolitik. Israel could find the common interests it shares with Turkey, which also sees Iran as a regional threat and a historic rival.

Currently, in the geopolitical contest between the West and the Axis of Evil (Iran-Russia-China- North Korea) together with the Global South, Turkey has been playing both sides with some favoritism to the West (it is still a NATO member).

Israel could reach an accommodation with Turkey regarding spheres of influence in Syria- Israel would exert its influence on southern Syria by collaborating with the Druze, and Erdogan would have the rest of Syria with some buffer between the areas. This logic is what guided great powers in the past when they had to divide spheres of influence between themselves (the French and the Brits divided the Middle East based on this logic).

Under this proposal, the US could be the “shock absorber” between Israel and Turkey and use its vast military alliance with both countries to reach an accommodation that is tolerable for Israel. President Trump reportedly has a congenial relationship with President Erdogan and a very close view of Iran as Israel.

With the political stars aligning, Israel, as a regional power, should use its new and improved geopolitical position to advance its security interests by playing “smart” and based on the reality on the ground, not wishful thinking. Supporting the Kurds is anything but that.

The writer is a research analyst at the Israel Defense and Security Forum-Habithonistim, specializing in the fields of delegitimization, US-Israeli relations, and Hezbollah. Currently pursuing a Masters in Data Science at the Hebrew University.